German Fernandez seen walking around Nike Corp in Beaverton.

The problem with your logic is there is only one company right now with that kinda money...Nike. With most of the others able and willing to pay around $100k per year, that's where his value is. Nike won't have to pay 5x times that to sign him. Like I said, unless another company with deep pockets makes a big offer or is willing to bid against Uncle Phil's money, he won't be anywhere near $500k per year.

I thought Webb's contract was 250k a year. I seem to remember something along the lines of 6 years, $1.5 mil (although that would mean the contract would have expired last year sometime, which I don't recall hearing anything about). Anyone have a citation on Webb's numbers?

What I haven't heard anyone mention yet is that he may NEED that money. I think he'd really like to spend 4-5 years having the time of his life competing with the Cowboys, but that doesn't mean that's the best option for him.

If German was indeed visiting the Nike headquarter's, this is the scenario I envision:

All of California, and especially the Central valley, is having a real tough go of it economically. It's very possible that his family's having a hard time making ends meet. Throughout high school, they were probably getting a good chunk of German's paycheck, so while he's getting an education and lots of perks - things with considerable monetary value - those things aren't helping his parents pay the family's bills.

Now that he's at home for the summer, he may have realized what a tough place they're in and may be looking for a way to help out. Even though there could be more money down the line, as his stock is sure to rise with another year or two of collegiate domination/record-type times, he may not have the luxury of waiting for his stock to reach its peak.

All speculation, of course, but something worth considering. $500,000 now and the ability to save his parents from foreclosing or something like that may be worth more to him than $1.5 million in three years. If he can workout a contract that gives him the option to re-negotiate every couple years, why not take the money now?

All this attention for somebody that has barely done anything on the international stage. I mean the guy is basically a 3:55 miler, and not any better than Stember was.

Wow very good speculation. Even though Germans family is not in any major financial difficulty, living paycheck to paycheck is no fun either. Though education is very important he wants whats best for his family. He knows very well that he can continue his college education at the expense of another entity, and earn a living with a somewhat large payoff included. Lets see what happens. I wish him the best in whatever he chooses.

Mr.Truth wrote:

All this attention for somebody that has barely done anything on the international stage. I mean the guy is basically a 3:55 miler, and not any better than Stember was.

Lets see I do not recall Stember running a 4 minute mile in high school, or even anything close to a 8:34 two mile. Not for sure if Stember set any Junior records in college either. I am sure Stember is a nice guy, no disrespect to him. Just trying to make a point.

This post is spot on. Once he signs, the hype will be gone. Secondly, the post saying that if other companies won't offer 500k a year, then Nike won't either is right. I doubt he'd get more than 100k annually, and having paying to go to school part time from that, taxes etc leaves him a good income, but not an incredibly high one. Maybe with performance bonuses or prize money, but he has a long way to go before he starts winning big pro races. My recommendation would be one or two more injury free years of school, maybe redshirt one or two seasons while still graduating in 4 years.

well, if he is visiting, good for him.

if he is negotiating. good for him.

if he has an agent with him. i hope he hasn't signed with the agent and the agent is looking long term for the kid.

Catch Me If You Can wrote:

All speculation, of course

The hell you say?

The truth is that 99% of these high school sensations never live up to their promise. Until we see a 3:50 mile or something he will just be another US miler that will at best makes an Olympic final. Even that is rare these days.

The runners that usually make the biggest impact are the ones that dramatically improve from their high school performances. Runners like Spivey and Scott made incredible strides from their high school days and became top 5 ranked international milers. I believe 3:49 miler Joe Falcon ran a 4:10 mile in high school.

For some reason our high milers are getting faster, but are doing less on the global stage when they reach the professional level. Maybe they just burn out. Recent history should make anyone skeptical.

Scott, Spivey, and Maree were making school teachers salaries, while these new US runners (many who can't even make the US team) get quarter of a million dollar running contracts.

I am willing to bet Fernandez will never run the mile faster than 3:52. Maybe he will run a 3:33 1500 like Seneca Lassiter did almost a decade ago.

PDubbs wrote:

but I would argue Webb's 3:53 is better then any of German's races thus far (the IAAF outdoor scoring tables agree with me, perhaps not the 3:55i), though he is knockin on webb's door and probally has more depth of quality runs.

While I agree with you that a 13:25 (which I would argue is German's best mark and best race to date) may not do as well as a 3:53 in international competition, I do contend that it is a superior mark for an 18 year old American. To find someone with the speed, endurance, and race intelligence that it takes to run a 13:25 in a championship race is extremely rare, and I would argue that such a talent is more rare than a 3:53 mile in America (though each have only been done once). The basis of my argument is based on the average great 18 year old runner in America. It seems like every year there is a sub-4 attempt by these 18 year olds, and while 3:53 is heads and shoulders better than a 4:02, a 13:25 is (IMO) even more significantly better than the average national prep leader (2 mile conversions would probably be equivalent to 14:10 or so).

Year in and year out, America has some hot-shot sprinter/jumper/thrower who demonstrate out of this world potential (as with Jeff Demps). But the hype of such talent isn't as great, because America is expected to produce the world's best sprinters, jumpers, and throwers. The same can be said about the mile and 800m. America has always been more competitive at the world stage in the mile and the 800m than in the longer distances. So to American fans it is more rare (and I would argue more exciting) to see an American competing at the world stage in the 5000m and 10,000m than in the 1500m or 800m. For example, while Wheating and Rupp may be at a very similar level internationally, Rupp is by far the more rare, more exciting of the two (although Wheating is also exceptional because of his inexperience).

No doubt, Alan Webb seemed to have the ability to be right there with the best in the world after his 3:53 mile as an 18 year old, but I believe (and I think many others agree) that German has that same possibility for an event that is even more thirsty for an American champion!

Stember ran 4:04.00 for the mile (not 1600) when he was a junior. He also won Pan-Ams. And this was well before we had people like Alan Webb running 3:53. He was the best HS miler within about a decade. He also closed in about 1:26 in that 4:04 effort.

Stember ran 1:49 or so in high school. Not worth 8:34, but still not a slouch.

On that note, Stember in an Olympian.

Fernandez is not.

He ran seriously in high school for, lets see, 1 year. You are probably right though, his improvement curve is over after 2 years.

A few points. German has raced internationally enough to know that he is a special runner but not a prodigy internationally (Young Kenyans and Ethiopians). On the one hand, he could make in two or three years what I have made in 22 years teaching. Practially, that is tough to turn down. However, a lot of human development comes from the college experience. The low rigor of college? Remember, you as a student are very responsible for that. Don\'t choose the easiest majors. Don\'t choose the easiest professors. Be ambitious. Lets not advise German other than to say \"do what feels right.\"

Duplos>Legos wrote:He ran seriously in high school for, lets see, 1 year. You are probably right though, his improvement curve is over after 2 years.

because he couldn't stay healthy... no major injuries in college yet, but a few minor ones. it would definitely be taking a risk to be stuck with a 5-year contract with

someone as injury-prone as he seems to be

The Vindicator wrote:The problem with your logic is there is only one company right now with that kinda money...Nike. With most of the others able and willing to pay around $100k per year, that's where his value is. Nike won't have to pay 5x times that to sign him. Like I said, unless another company with deep pockets makes a big offer or is willing to bid against Uncle Phil's money, he won't be anywhere near $500k per year.

Adidas and Nike both have over 1,000,000,000/year in free cash flow, and $315,000+ to Fernandez wouldn't change that. Drop in the bucket. Not only will they be willing to pay it, they'll be climbing all over each other for the chance. $100,000/year is what they pay the local track club coach to organize Nike fun runs, not what they pay their #1 middle distance sponsorship target.

To the "never 3:52" guy: He'll run that the next time he tries, in all likelihood.

You have to remember for an American to run 3:50 for the mile or under is extremely rare. Most US runners with Fernadez talent will fall into the 3:52-3:55 range. Runners with Webb, Lagat, Scott, Falcon, and Spivey's speed comes around every quarter century in the US. In this country's 233 year history only 10 have run at least a 3:50 mile. Lets be realistic about Fernandex and his future accomplishments. After Stember's blazing High School mile everyone was talking about him running a sub 3:50 mile. Like most talented American milers he tapered off at 3:55 for the mile and 3:35 for the 1500. A 3:35 1500 seems to be the set point for top American runners. Every few years there seems to be a new American hitting the 3:35 mark. Unfortunately, at the Olympic and WC level a 3:35 is nothing to write home about.

I use Stember as an example because he represents the very good miler, but not the world class talent of a Lagat. Even a runner of Stember's talent is close to one in a million. I believe, Stember did get a Pan American games medal.

Troll attempt 6/10

Let me get this straight... you are saying that Scott, Falcon, and Spivey have more talent than an 18 year old who has already run 3:55.02 (and indoors to boot)....Nice Try Mr. Troll.

Stember and Fernandez should never be mentioned again in the same sentence (Except to say that Stember's CA state meet kick was the second most impressive thing you've ever seen at a state meet behind German's double).

If German doesn't run 3:49 or lower it is because either he stopped running or because he stopped running the mile and focused on his primary event (the 5000m)