Will Lagat upset Bekele in his run for the Jackpot this Friday in Paris?

why don't you call it the Webb formula then?

and how come Webb can run 1.43 off a 51 first lap, but Lagat needs at least a 50 to break 1.46?

I'm sure your formula is very good and is approximately correct for a lot of athletes, but it is not fool proof, it is not correct every time, and I think it is silly of you to refute other peoples theories and predictions onthe basis that they do not fit with your estimates for people.

And am I a retard, an idiot, a numbskull or your good friend? Cause you seem to have some difficulty deciding...

and how come Webb can run 1.43 off a 51 first lap, but Lagat needs at least a 50 to break 1.46?

webb ran 1'43.8 off 50-flat ( check vid )

he ran 1'43.8 because he followed the wabbit to 50-flat & then had "fortune" to have reed push it hard in what looks like mid-1'16 ( 1'42 pace ! ) - he outgamed reed to win in 1'43.84 to 1'44.03

i don't recall bernie ever being in a race with a wabbit going thru in 50 & someone pushing it hard to 76+ at 600m - they have been invariably 51+ & something pretty slow at 600 degenerating into a tactical, kicker's affair in last 200 with slow winning time ( going 51+ has not taken that much out of anyone, but the slow 200 to 600 allows the quicker 400 speed guys to use most of their speed for the kick & as said, these guys are 0.5s - 1.5s quicker 400 guys than bernie )

bernie doesn't need 50s to break 1'46, but he needs a fast pace to 600 & someone running fast right to the tape as reed did & get the best out of him - i read somewhere the fastest winning time for a race he's ever been in was high-1'44 ( nothing remarkable )

it's worth noting until webb ran this race, webb had a 1'46pb & posters on various forums were often debating about this poor time

epopians wrote:Which line does this 7:33 put Lagat on now? Lol

Must be infuriating that your number one boy doesn't stick to your rigid formula. Goes to show that while it is a good gauge, everyone is different and it is impossible to produce a system that works for most athletes, let alone all athletes.

seeing as he's gone close to 13-flat this year, it certainly isn't the 7'33 line

watching his post-race interview

he said he was in 2 minds whether to chase after kennster when he was building the gap or sit & wait on expectation he woud tire & come back ( he didn't )

he admits not chasing after him earlier was a mistake ( & a very obvious one, as kennster was averaging high-59s & not high-58s & he's not going to come back averaging high-59s )

he admits at the end he still hasn't got his full 5k base-work ( which makes his 13-flat earlier all the more remarkable ! ), which wouda lessenend his endurance in this race, but has plenty of time to get it done for berlin

if he'd chased him earlier, he wouda still lost but he wouda had probably run about a 7'30-flat, which is least expectation