I think Bekele will win over Lagat. I don't think the time will be much faster than 7:30. I do think Solinsky will be a couple seconds off those two. This is the new Chris Solinsky, who oukicked Kipchoge and almost kicked down Shaheen at Pre. I expect Solinsky to run under 7:34 and set himself up for a huge performance at Worlds.
selinskys even more overrated that tegancamp is.
theyre basically the same person. just another white guy that was a satisfactory 2-mile guy in college. thats all him and teg will ever be.
the430miler wrote:
selinskys even more overrated that tegancamp is.
theyre basically the same person. just another white guy that was a satisfactory 2-mile guy in college. thats all him and teg will ever be.
If that is how you see those two, how would you rate yourself?
Teg was less than a second from medaling at Worlds. Solinsky's right with him this year. Not saying they'll be slaying the top Africans, but they're running better than most other "white guys" lately.
if they could only measure up to all the other just another ndns like you. oh well
430 - I'm curious about your opinion on Webb and the 5000. I know you respect his miling ability but what do you think he could run for 5000?
Selinskys?
Is this a drug Lagat is taking?
I don't get why everyone thinks Lagat has no chance. He ran 3:32 and 13:01 this year. He WILL outkick Bekele and neither can currently break 7:30.
I'm hoping this race drops below 7:25. I'm getting out of summer school a little early tomorrow just to watch it. So it better be good.
Moore OK Runner wrote:
430 - I'm curious about your opinion on Webb and the 5000. I know you respect his miling ability but what do you think he could run for 5000?
webb is the best white runner in the history of the world. period. his best event is the mile, and that is why he trains solely for it.
we all saw him destroy ritz (a 5k/10k specialist) at standford 2 years ago in the 10k, and webb hadnt even ran trained or ran a race over 3k yet that year.
if razko just slightly modified webbs training regimen to focus more on speed endurance instead of speed, just for 2 months, then webb would break bob kennedys 5k american record on his first attempt. id say his first attempt would be around 12:40 (shattering bks record by 18 seconds) and enough for 4th place all time.
if webb focused on the 5k for only 1 year, and trained at altitude instead of in virginia beach, then he would break bekeles world record and run sub 12:30.
this isnt the record he needs to be focusing on, primarily because he is well capable of breaking the world record in the mile and breaking the 3:40 barrier. when he does it, it will NOT shock the world. only leave the intelligent running enthusiast like me saying "its about time, he should have already done it if it wasnt for arrogant letsrun posters encouraging him to run longer distances and run high mileage"
-430miler
by the way thanks to the person who posted the 1500 race. Damn that was impressive
Yes and when he ran that 13:01 he was outkicked by kogo whom bekele beat running out of shape. This race will be sub-7:30.
jingle bowels wrote:
ventolin wrote:or we coud use our brain & consider the pedigree of bernie
his 2 under-distance bests this year are 1'46 & 3'32
as people are convinced 1'46 is his best now ( it may just be, as thru the years he's traded off speed for endurance when moving up ) we can go with altering his 3'32, which as mentioned was a low-profile meet
1'46.00 with
3'32.00 ->7'33.22 , 13'11.26
3'31.50 ->7'31.12 , 13'06.40
3'31.00 ->7'29.02 , 13'01.54
3'30.50 ->7'26.91 , 12'56.68
3'30.00 ->7'24.81 , 12'51.82
considering he's already gone just over 13-flat this year in somewhat tactical race, you can throw out top 3 lines
he's somewhere in last 2 lines & that means a potentially damn fast 3k at present !!!
kennster will have to be in nigh on pb shape to break him & a mere 7'28/7'29 won't do it
closest thing we have seen to common sense from you Ventolin, although (and I know you are conceeding on this one) if Lagat is a 1.46 800 runner he clearly is not going to fit your average endurance curve in which case he could well be in 3.32/7.33/13.00 shape..
Don't be a slave to your own equations, despite the sales pitch!
no
you've misread the top line
it is
3'32.00 ->7'33.22 , 13'11.26
it does not apply to him this year as he has already run 13-flat
( btw 3'32 / 13'00 ->7'29.33 NOT 7'33 )
the first line which can apply to him is :
3'31.00 ->7'29.02 , 13'01.54
but that assumes a flat-out 13'01 from gun to tape at even pace with last lap of ~ 62.4
the fact that his 13-flat wasn't run evenly & he finished in something well below 60 means that line isn't applicable either
you are therefore left with
3'30.50 ->7'26.91 , 12'56.68
3'30.00 ->7'24.81 , 12'51.82
as for his 1'46. it's perfectly possible that is all he can run now, not a reflection on him 8y ago - i can post something later
ukathleticscoach wrote:
'3'32.00 -> 7'33.22 , 13'11.26
3'31.50 -> 7'31.12 , 13'06.40
3'31.00 -> 7'29.02 , 13'01.54
3'30.50 -> 7'26.91 , 12'56.68
3'30.00 -> 7'24.81 , 12'51.82'
I didn't realise it takes such intelligence to copy & paste a pace chart! How do you get him in the last 2 lines anyway he hasn't run any of those times
err...
he's just run 13-flat in a non-ideally paced race & lost after timing his kick wrong
do you seriously believe he coudn't have run ~ 12'55 that day in a perfectly wabbited race ???
If your pace chart is right how come Lagat has never broken 7:30 in all the 3,000m he has run? Maybe he didn't need that to win the races. But his best 5,000m is 20 seconds down as well, perhaps he can't match their endurance
of course he can't match their endurance, but it's still good enough to have got him got him close to 12'50 at sometime in his career - like hicham
Well, let's look at some fact first, along with their associated conditions, time of the year, and how much pressure is on for a rabbited race.
Kenenisa Bekele has ran a world leading time of 12:56.23 and other 5000m races in 13:00 and 13:04. Each race he got faster, so it might be expected that Bekele could be in near 12:50 shape for this race.
At the same time, we know that Lagat ran 13:03 in late May, 7:35 in early June, and recently 3:32.56 and 1:46.84. We haven't seen any demonstrations of powerful speed from Bekele yet, although I never watched any of his 5k victories, and I'm not sure how fast he closed those races.
The fact is, Lagat is in good enough shape to run at 13:00 pace and still finish with a strong 1500m-specialist kick. This could set up to be an interesting dual between Bekele and Lagat tomorrow and at world champs and even thereafter would be interesting.
Like I said in another thread, my prediction for this race is that Lagat will beat Bekele with his superior kicking speed, at the same time breaking Bob Kennedy's AR. Here's what I think it will look like:
1. Lagat 7:29.x
2. Bekele 7:29.y
.
.
.
.
?. Solinsky 7:33
26mi235 wrote:Eldrick, his 800 was non-trivially above 1:46.00, which would affect his curve and it was done in the middle of the pack drafting. Conversely, he soloed away in his 3:32 and it indicates better current ability than the mark itself. This helps get down into the middle or lower range. I do not think that Bernie is ready or prepping to run 7:25 but he could make 7:28, which is well into AR territory. 7:30 is more likely and even Bekele will have some trouble with 7:25.00; few have broken that mark and I do not think he is yet at the top of his game.
As for that record, 3:40/3:58 are pretty good 1500/mile times and the WR is two of those in a row.
26'er
i'm not sure if you are saying his ?1'46.8 for him this year is full value or not for him presently
anyhow, the premise about 3k benchmarks shoud need rethinking - 7'30 is not a very good time for guys who can run 3'30 & have good 5k ability
i assume that you feel his 3'32 shoud be quicker, maybe upto 3'30 & his 5k below 13'00
e g
3'30.00 with
13'00.00 ->7'27.63 , 1'45.32
12'57.50 ->7'26.77 , 1'45.53
12'55.00 ->7'25.91 , 1'45.73
12'52.50 ->7'25.04 , 1'45.94
12'50.00 ->7'24.18 , 1'46.15
12'47.50 ->7'23.32 , 1'46.36
12'45.00 ->7'22.45 , 1'46.57
12'42.50 ->7'21.59 , 1'46.78
12'40.00 ->7'20.73 , 1'46.99
7'30 is not a big target for 3'30 guys - 7'27 is more like it & i do see bernie being somewhat quicker than this presently
very few 3ks are run "properly" by these guys - flat-out gun-to-tape, but when they do, they will be rewarded with seemingly "magical" times :
look at the 12'50 line - that one is ~ saidi-sief
look at the 12'40 line - that one is ~ komen
if we get a hard run race, don't be surprised to see bernie run even 7'25
Bernard Lagat's sub-7:40 performances:
7:33.51 in 2000 for 5th
7:34.96 in 2004 for 1st
7:38.00 in 2005 for 1st
7:34.41 in 2006 for 1st
7:32.43i in 2007 for 1st
7:37.69 for 6th in 2007
7:38.77 in 2007 for first
7:34.65 in Stockholm last year (1st)
7:35.41i earlier this year (1st)
7:35.92 at Pre this year (1st)
kenenisa will run for wolrd record and no body will be near to him. lagat will burn out like MJ hair
Bekele will win. Lagats kick is useless, because he lacks endurance compared to bekele. Bekele will make sure that lagat won't be able to kick faster in the end. So bekele will take care for a fast pace, even if the rabbits fail.
Bekele will win, no matter what kind of calculations some lagat fanboy will come up with.
'of course he can't match their endurance, but it's still good enough to have got him got him close to 12'50 at sometime in his career - like hicham'
Maybe he had the potential to go a bit quicker but he never did. El G did 12.50 but Lagat is 9 sec down:
As for the Lagat having not having the opportunity to run a fast 3'000m. Well 25 runners have run sub 7:30 - even Bekele's slower brother - so they managed to find a find a fast race!
Nothing against Lagat if it where a mile I would have him as favourite over KB
I'm really looking forward to this race!
Is there a rule against attaching a helium balloon to yourself while running a road race?
Am I living in the twilight zone? The Boston Marathon weather was terrible!
How rare is it to run a sub 5 minute mile AND bench press 225?
Jakob Ingebrigtsen has a 1989 Ferrari 348 GTB and he's just put in paperwork to upgrade it
Move over Mark Coogan, Rojo and John Kellogg share their 3 favorite mile workouts
Mark Coogan says that if you could only do 3 workouts as a 1500m runner you should do these