Adam Goucher as marathoner - predictions here

His mile PR is 3:54 from the Adidas meet in 99.

He has also run 7:34 for 3000 meters.

Hw would beat Sell in a head to head matchup

PR will be 2:12. He might make the 2012 team.

Sounds about right... the first part anyhow. I'd say 2:12 at the fastest and 2:15 at the slowest, if he gives it a real spirited effort. But let's say 2:12:55 for grins.

kinda but really not smart wrote:

His last (and only?) half at San Jose last year was a poor attempt. I have trouble seeing Adam succeed at the marathon when he struggles through just 13.1.

adam goucher also ran the great north half marathon in england, the race where his wife ran 66:57, adam was about 3 minutes ahead of her.

In terms of mechanics, he may be the male version of Constantina Tomescu-Dita in terms of muscling their way through the distance. I'm not saying he will have her success, but they have have similar styles.

RunningAntelope wrote:

Sounds about right... the first part anyhow. I'd say 2:12 at the fastest and 2:15 at the slowest, if he gives it a real spirited effort. But let's say 2:12:55 for grins.

So you think he will be just a tad slower than Trent Briney?

I just realized that I first met Adam eighteen years ago. He's had a long career, with lots of ups and downs. Many people have counted him out many times, but he's come back every time -- sometimes with extraordinary results.

Adam has always looked a bit awkward during races -- as though he's trying to muscle his way through a strong headwind. That doesn't seem like the ideal running form for a marathoner, but it doesn't seem like the ideal form for a 5,000-meter runner, either. It might cause him some problems late in a marathon, however, when fatigue sets in and the wheels start to come off.

For a number of reasons, I think that Adam, in his first marathon, will be under strict instructions from Alberto to run conservatively from the start. A good race would probably be Chicago, where he would be treated well, the course has no surprises, the weather is usually excellent, and he won't have to worry about the competition since the leaders will be out of sight and out of mind early on. No faster than ten minutes at two miles, no faster than 66 at the half, and don't press until the last 10K. Call it a success if it's 2:12 to 2:14, and adjust goals as appropriate afterwards. Neither Adam nor Alberto would have taken such advice in their early twenties, but they're both different now.

Many good runners seem to have waited too long before moving up to the marathon, but many others have risen to the top ranks after taking up the event in their thirties. I think that some of the late-starting marathon failures didn't respect the race enough, or just saw it as a way of finishing up a satisfactory career. I don't think that Al will let Adam underestimate the race, and I don't think that Adam is content just to finish up his career with a bit of road-racing. I think he feels that he still has a whole lot of unfinished business in this sport.

Nah Cell will clean Goucher's clock

airplane finish

terps wrote:

In terms of mechanics, he may be the male version of Constantina Tomescu-Dita in terms of muscling their way through the distance. I'm not saying he will have her success, but they have have similar styles.

the bad mechanics will come home to roost--you just can't have any big negatives and expect to win in the marathon.

all things being equal, tomescu-dita is a much better athlete than adam.

No it wasn't, it was long but it was around 250m.

What is Goucher's best half? He ran like 1:05 in NYC shortly after the US trials when he was in sub 28 10k shape. Honestly I don't think he is cut out for the longer distances and he is only making the move up to prolong his career. I like goucher alot but I don't think he will have any success in the marathon. He is a strength runner and was great at 1,500-10k but that doesn't necessarily translate into success in the marathon. Just like a 2:06 marathon and half marathon AR doesn't translate into dominance in the 5k and 10k for Hall.

Again my guess is he runs somewhere between 2:15 and 2:20.

i'd bet on injury and DNS

Ah, the Chicago Distance Classic...never been to a less organized race in my life. I know the waddlers don't care what kind of time they run they just like crossing the finish line so they can eat (provided there is food still left after a 3-hour 13mile waddle). I hope this race is under new management. Anyone looking for a Top-100 bid into Chicago, go somewhere else...

"For a number of reasons, I think that Adam, in his first marathon, will be under strict instructions from Alberto to run conservatively from the start. "

Maybe he can run Boston and start with the chicks. Nice and easy....

My prediction: Pain.

I've been really curious about Adam for the last year or more, whether he's been injured, or having trouble with motivation, or finding it difficult to adjust to the idea of moving up in distance.

All the other runners in his training group (Rupp, Kara, Amy YB) have had incredible success this past 2-3 seasons while Adam has dropped off a level or two. A pretty good argument could be made that Adam went from being the most successful and highest-profile of these four, to the only one who hasn't really had a single great race recently. It must have been tough for anyone, especially for someone who seems as driven and strong-willed as him. Some runners give interviews even when things aren't going well, so you get some idea what they're doing and what they're planning, but I haven't heard much of anything about Adam other than insinuations and rumors here.

One thing that really made me wonder, PURELY reading between the lines I admit, is something Alberto said after Amy YB's win in the 10k at USAs. Some interviewer asked him what's the reason for the recent success of Amy and Kara and Galen, and Salazar said something like "It's about buying into the plan and following all the steps you need to, and Amy and Kara and Galen have really bought into our plan." When I heard that, it seemed like he was in a sense making a statement about one of his runners he DIDN'T mention. Now it could have just been that since Adam had been struggling lately, Alberto thought it would be funny to mention "Adam's really bought into the plan too but just hasn't run fast lastely," but I wondered if it meant that Adam's name hadn't been included along with the others because Alberto was making a statement about what happens when you DO buy into the plan fully, and follow all the steps layed out for you. Again, big disclaimer here -- I'm reading a lot into what Alberto said, as Adam's name wasn't mentioned at all.

I wonder if Adam has resisted the move up in distance, and maybe went about the training half-heartedly, kind of still wishing he could be an elite 5k guy. And if so, maybe the latest announcement about his fall marathon debut means he's actually "signed on" to really go for it.

Many here have said Adam's style is too strength-oriented for him to become a good marathoner, but other guys have surprised with their ability to transition up. Jeez, who thought Rod Dixon would go from running 3:34 or whatever it was for 1500 to winning the New York marathon in 2:08?

Anyway, I'm really curious to see what happens and I think mostly it will come down to whether Adam really, truly wants to be a marathoner, or even a road racer.