Adam Goucher as marathoner - predictions here

Kara might win this race overall. This race is taking over the Chicago Distance Classic and last year was won in around 1:10.

He just doesn't have the mechanics or the durability to run the distance well. You can't "muscle" your way through 26 miles the way you can through a 5 or 10k. His style suited him back when he was in 13:10 shape but, it's never been pretty (or economical enough for a good marathon). It makes me sad when someone turns to such a beautiful event (the Marathon) WAY TOO late in their career looking for some sort of revival. If you want to run a good marathon, you need to do it while you're still capable of running PR's in the shorter distances. On a perfect day, Adam will hit maybe 2:13-15 but, I don't think he'll ever make it through a build-up intact. Training for a marathon is very hard. I do wish him well however. He is a nice guy after all.

-The Killer

It's about time Adam took a shot at a marathon. I hope it suits him.

It won't go well and will accelerate his retirement.

I ran it in 2005. They brought in a Kenyan ringer who won in 1:05 in pretty hot and humid conditions, but if I recall correctly, the second guy came in about 1:10.

As for Adam, my money's on DNS.

you underestimate the great power of the salad bar.

on a somewhat related note, why hasn't J Torres moved up--his style seems to be more marathon friendly

Because he has watched his brother struggle in the event. Although he is a better runner, who would of thought that his brother could only produce a 2:17 in 3 attempts.

Goucher will be lucky to break 2:20...kara might actually end up with a faster PR than him.

My prediction is that Goucher will be a nationally mediocre marathoner. No slam intended, but he's past his prime.

so statistically you are saying a 28 high 10k runner is a 3:30 + guy? that is the nationally mediocre if you look at the curve of worldwide marathoners as well as US, a 2:17 or faster is way way into the 90th percentile like 99th, so unless you have some info the rest don't I would place him as an elite in that event as well. At worst local elite 2:22-27 on an absolute blowout. I predict a 2:10 to 2: 15 range runner, IF he is doing this for himself and not trying to get out from Kara's shadow and clinging to some remnants of his past.

28 high? Goucher broke 28 at the Olympic Trials in 2008.

His last (and only?) half at San Jose last year was a poor attempt. I have trouble seeing Adam succeed at the marathon when he struggles through just 13.1.

M. Pantani wrote:

IF he is doing this for himself and not trying to get out from Kara's shadow and clinging to some remnants of his past.

I'm sure like any competitive runner surrounded by others who are having a lot of success he IS trying to get out of the shadows. Not only of Kara but also of Galen (who used to be in his shadow) and now even Begley and Ritz potentially.

That doesn't mean it's his only reason or that its wrong. Probably inside he (and Salazar) know Adam well enough to know that he'll never be able to go where Galen will in the 10K. That is no slam on Adam. Hell if he were to get healthy for a couple years he may even get under 27:30 but that will still be trailing Galen and probably Ritz and have almost no chance of a national championship. Being smart they look for something where Adam can excel and feel success (by not being beat down continually). With Ritz and Galen focussing on track right now Adam can look to the marathon.

Sometime a change is more important than focussing on your best event when that event has been a brick wall. Who knows, maybe there is a world or Olympic spot for him if he can be healthy.

AG will do about as well as BK did.

Heard through the grapevine wrote:

28 high? Goucher broke 28 at the Olympic Trials in 2008.

True, Gouchers resume still cannot be matched by many runners racing today:

3:56

8:12 2 mile

13:10 & 13:11

27:59 x 2

Only Runner to win both short and long course at USA XC Champs on the same weekend.

6th at World XC short course

Not a bad resume AT ALL considering that any great coach or athlete will tell you that the top 3 things in the success recipe are:

1)Talent

2)Hard Work

3)Staying Healthy for long durations of time

Without #3 the top 2 don't matter and Goucher has spent the majority of the last 9 years dealing with injuries and health. I have no idea if he can run a decent marathon, but I do believe he is a hard working talented runner.

Given even 70% health for the next 3 years I say 2:11 and a world championship team in 2011. He'll need to get a few in before though.

DNF

Goucher actually ran a 3:54 mile. The rest looks correct.

Twoinchkiller wrote:

He just doesn't have the mechanics or the durability to run the distance well. You can't "muscle" your way through 26 miles the way you can through a 5 or 10k. His style suited him back when he was in 13:10 shape but, it's never been pretty (or economical enough for a good marathon). It makes me sad when someone turns to such a beautiful event (the Marathon) WAY TOO late in their career looking for some sort of revival. If you want to run a good marathon, you need to do it while you're still capable of running PR's in the shorter distances. On a perfect day, Adam will hit maybe 2:13-15 but, I don't think he'll ever make it through a build-up intact. Training for a marathon is very hard. I do wish him well however. He is a nice guy after all.

-The Killer

Ido partly agree with your points on mechanics and durability. I mean his mechanics don't seem ideal for it and he certainly is not durable. But looking especially at the womens marathon, the types of bodies moving successfully (say top 10 in the top marathons) are pretty extreme. Regarding the durability, some of my friends who were competitive on the track and went to the marathon said that surprisingly it was easier to train and with less setbacks when training for the marathon. There was so much less time spent on warming up and strides and drills and obviously less intensity because you're not in spike or flats on the track at high speeds. Marathon training involves more running and less intervals and obviously slower paced running. If goucher were to subsitute say 30-40% of his mileage on the alter g and underwater treadmill he could get the required mileage to be great with far less pounding that it takes to be great in the 5K or 10K. Then put your runs in on the bark trails around Nike or the other trails in Portland. I don't mean to imply that he'll be able to escape a lot of hard work and running, but that maybe the way he can go about it will be easier on his body.

IMHO.