RE: Does Galen Rupp really have a shot at winning a medal in Berlin?

I agree but this is a bait and switch. If Rupp does medal, it would be one of the great moments in US distance running. And I would love to see him do it. My post and many others are only pointing out that Rupp is taking on an enormous challenge. To get within 15 seconds this year would be a huge achievement. In 2 years he could get even closer.

Watch the Beijing 10k on Ethiotube.net. At 8k Rupp is 11 seconds back and he runs the last 2k in 5:32. To get within 15 seconds, Rupp would have to be with the pack at 8k in 21:53 and close in 5:22. To improve by that much in one year is fantastic.

That said, this year's race could be a little different than the last few.I still think there will be 8-10 in 26:55 -27:10 shape, which makes for very long odds for Rupp to medal. The top Ethiopians may not be quite as fit and, therefore, they may not control the race as well they have in the past. Kitwara looks really good and Kogo seems fit but so far noone looks in PR shape (ie 26:40 and lower). Tadesse may make a bid from a long way out and Kitwara might have the kick to hang with a weaker Bekele.

As he has not been in a fast race this year, its difficult to say by how much he has improved. It would be beneficial if he had been in at least one fast race in Europe to get used to the pace.

He also needs to be able to race well in hot weather which it is certain to be in Berlin in August.

He has an oustide shot at a medal, he has shown he can put in a fast mile but if as others have said the last 5km turns into a 13 minute burn up he may get dropped.

Good luck to Rupp

I have to say that Rupp fans are like the most g****t fans in the world. So what if the top tier east africans are not going to improve their times. What the hell, you still think they can't run in the 26:40's and galen rupp (the savior) is just going to start dropping 26:40's-27:00's the next four years and somehow just starts beating sileshi shiine and co. You guys make me laugh. I know you're all desperate like crack fiens but these speculations are getting a little bit redundant and out of hand. It would be wise just to shut up and wait to see how the race developes. I remember not to long ago that everyone was throwing their pantie hoes in the air all over German Fernandez and saying how he was going to get 3-5 at world xc and he ended up getting 11th which is still good but the hype surrounding him kind of killed the expectation of him to deliver.

If I make it to 100 miles this week, Rupp will medal in Berlin. I'm at 45 miles thru 3 days.

Everyone has a chance to medal, but only 3 people will have the balls to get them.

Not a chance.

oldoldrunner wrote:

If AlSal has been working with Galen on the wicked surges that are going to come his way, and he can kick like his has against the the college kid he has a chance.

Bingo. That's why the Americans always look like fools in the championship races. How often have we seen a race end in a time that is perfectly within some American's PR, only to see them struggle home 30 second later looking like hell?

It's the STYLE of the race more than the PACE of the race that kills off American runners. They can't handle the surging, plain and simple.

Someone said Rupp is the best American 5k-10k runner by a long way??? No chance. Teg and Solinsky would dust him in a 5k. Teg was 4th at the last World Championships in the 5k. Look for Tegenkamp to medal.

Well you need to remember that at that speed they don't really have anyone pushing them. If your local 5k was won in 20 minutes every year would you show up and run 15 minutes alone? Hell no, you would jog the first 2.5 miles and then blaze everyone at the end for a 19 minute win. Thats basically what Bekele, Shihine, etc do. They are talented enough to run the first half in 14 minutes and then close in 13 flat if the want to. Rupp and many others in the field can't run that time for 5k alone, they know this and right there they eliminate 3/4 of the field with that strategy.

I think Rupp is an enormous talent, he should be able to rewrite the AR and probably dip under 27 if he gets in the right race, but I don't think one person is going to bridge the gap to the Africans. It's going to take time. If Rupp goes sub 27 he will likely inspire someone else in the U.S. to train harder and maybe one day they go 26:45, and so on. This gap is something that will need to be chipped away at.

Rupp is the best American 5K - 10K runner right now by a long way.

I'd say Teg and Lagat could handle Rupp in a 5k. Could Rupp maybe get them? Yes, it's possible. But Teg and Lagat would be favorites over Rupp. I'd also like to see Teg vs. Rupp in a 10k, but...

Galen does need to have a 10 pr or top 15 pr to be in the top 10. There may be 10-15 guys with faster PRs than Galen but 7-10 of those guys will go for the win and then blow up in the last mile. Galen will be content with not winning and will sneak his way into a good placing. I don't think he can medal but he has a great shot at top 10 and possibly top 5.

I don't get why so many posters are certain it's going to be a fast race. What on Earth suggests that Bekele is just going to go out and run 26:30?

No, I don't think Rupp will medal- but I don't think it would entirely impossible for him to sneak in and do so.

When posters say "oh, Rupp needs to be able to run 27:00, closing in 13:00 for the last 5k and in 52 for the last lap" in order to medal, what they really mean is that would be necessary to beat Beleke on Bekele's best day. That isn't going to happen, of course.

What I'm more interested in is how fast he normally have to run/close to get bronze? In the races I've seen, Bekele is usually 2 seconds or so ahead of Sihine, and Sihine is a few seconds up on third. So if Bekele closes in 13:20 with a 53 last lap, and 1:53 last 800, then Sihine has closed in 13:22 with a 55 and 1:56, and perhaps bronze "only" closed in 13:25 with a 58, 1:59. Do I think, if he has the race of his life, Rupp could go 14:00/13:25 with a 2:00ish last half? Yes. It's not likely, but it's possible. It'd be a huge step for him-- I like his chances of a 3-5th place finish in 2011.

he won't medal, but a decent finish will be just fine. I'm not putting any unreal expectations on Rupp.

women and men. apples and oranges.

Its not surging that gets the American's, its the poor race experience. If they can't run close to their PRs by pounding out erratic splits then they need to learn how to run it evenly.

Dave Wottle ran near perfect 26,26,26,26 to win the 800 at the Olympics, there is no reason Rupp couldn't do something similar to medal in Berlin. He was nearly dead last in the 10k at NCAAs and still managed to get a solid win at the end of it all.

No, I don't want to be a hater, but I have to say 0% chance at a medal in Berlin for Rupp. He's really done well this year improving on tactics and fitness (although he was always pretty fit), but here's the problem with Worlds: like it or not, PRs matter. This year alone we have FOUR men that have already run faster than the current American Record.

Now I'm not saying that Rupp is incapable of running the American record himself right now--he very well may be. I am saying that the top three in the world are heads and shoulders above him in any style race, Championship or rabbited.

Rupp can kick home a slow 5k in 4:00, these guys can kick home a moderately fast 10k in 5:11 for the last 2k and 2:30 for the last 1000...http://osaka2007.iaaf.org/results/gender=M/discipline=10K/combCode=hash/roundCode=f/result.html

I would love to see an American medal...but it just won't happen this year. No medal for Rupp.

FACT 001 wrote:

I dont know, something tells me that the africans are going to gang up on him and tear him a new asshole.

I'm sorry if my original post sounded a bit harsh. I support Rupp, but I think it's going to be very difficult for him to breakthrough in international races because of the alliances the east african countries build in racing.

It seems like Rupp will be the lone American racing in a sea of africans, he will not have Abdi there to push him. Ritzenhein will be racing but I don't think he's at Rupp's level.

In fact, I dont believe that Ritzenhein has raced well against africans in long distances since his first half marathon and his race at the world junior championships where he placed third.

Rupp will have to become another "african mazungo" who can keep up with the africans, the way Craig Mottram did 2-5 years ago.

I hope he does well.

Of course by "these guys" I mean Bekele, but the next two medalers weren't far behind.

Like most elite Americans I am hoping for a top 10 finish.