Evan Jager is Amazing - Has the US ever had a 20-year old run 13:22?

Wasn't that Jager's second 5000m race EVER?

piedmontcat wrote:

When did a 13:22 post-collegian time become more impressive than a 13:25 frosh's? Like I've said before, Jager is the new Lukezic.

He's not post collegiate, he's a college sophomore who is not competeting in the NCAA but professionally, and he just started doing that.

What he did is super impressive because it was his 2nd 5K ever, his first one was also over Derrick and Fernandez. He is only a year older but doesn't come out of high school as high profile as those two. Not only that, he ran a really great race. Looked good, smooth, aware, hit the fast pace off the gun and was able to withstand it. Went for the win as a 20 year old over a couple 7:35/13:05-13:10 guys. Had Teg not given him the firm arm at 180 to go which basically said "simmer down" he might have taken it a bit further. That little hesitation might have conceded his bid to win it.

Fernandez ran very well. He competed well and ran very mature and measured. A big statement that he can race when he's a bit over his head. This is what a lot of people doubted. However, this is where most of the non-crazed fans thought he'd end out the year. He finished outdoors with 3:39 & 13:25 which is amazing, but if the crazed fans could back off a little on this kid now he may be able to progress better. No need to make rivalries with the likes of Rupp or 13:05 guys right now. Let German improve and get to the next level when he's ready to, not when the rabid fans want him to.

I think over the next couple years the US is going to have about as many runners under 13:10 as we do under 3:37 now. Fun stuff.

How is he like Lukezic????? Lukezic is incapable of making any olympic or world teams and he's proven that time and time again. Jager has proven time and time that he thrives under pressure and good competition. Watch out for this kid.

You used a lot of words to actually validate my stance that Fernandez's (18yo, collegian, who's been competing since August 08 in the NCAA system, with a couple of injuries that took him out on at least a couple of times) 13:25 is more impressive than Jager's (professional, training with other professional runners in what seems to be track capital USA right now, with tons of personalized support and equipment at his disposal offered by Nike) 13:22.

questionerer wrote:

How is he like Lukezic????? Lukezic is incapable of making any olympic or world teams and he's proven that time and time again. Jager has proven time and time that he thrives under pressure and good competition. Watch out for this kid.

A few years ago when Lukezic busted that 3:35 or so, LRC propped this guy up as the next great hope. After a couple of years and a steady decline, he's now "proven that time and time again" that he "is incapable of making any olympic or world teams"??? Let's see how the kid develops before we jump on the bandwagon only to see him plateau and become another Lukezic. Also, remember this 5k had no Rupp, Derrick, or Lagat and Fam raced without his head.

Best American and World 5000m times by Age:

18

World best Eliud Kipchoge 12:52.61

German Fernandez 13:25.46

Chris Derrick 13:29.98 (tied for #5055 performance all time)

19 (world best Eliud Kipchoge 12:46.53):

Dathan Ritzenhein 13:27.77

Hassan Mead 13:28.45

20

World best Daniel Komen 12:45.09/#2 Stephen Cherono 12:48.81

Bob Kennedy 13:22.17

Evan Jager 13:22.18

Alberto Salazar 13:22.31

Rudy Chapa 13:25.57

21

World best and WR 12:37.35 Kenenisa Bekele/#2 Daniel Komen 12:39.74/#3 Sileshi Sihine 12:47.04

Bill McChesney 13:18.6

Rudy Chapa 13:19.22

Jim Hill 13:19.73

Josh McDougal 13:20.43

Steve Prefontaine 13:22.8

Paul Geis 13:23.38

22

World best Haile Gebrselassie 12:44.39

Alan Webb 13:10.86

Chris Solinsky 13:12.22

Bob Kennedy 13:14.91

Bill McChesney 13:15.77

Ryan Hall 13:16.03

Galen Rupp 13:18.12i

Dathan Ritzenhein 13:22.23

Alberto Salazar 13:22.6i

23

World best Bekele 12:40.18

Bob Kennedy 13:02.93

Alberto Salazar 13:11.93

Bill McChesney 13:14.8

Ian Dobson 13:15.33

Dathan Ritzenhein 13:16.61

Brent Vaughn 13:18.46

Steve Prefontaine 13:21.87

24

World best Geb 12:41.86/#2 Bekele 12:48.09

Bob Kennedy 13:03.37 (2 days before 25th birthday)

Matt Tegenkamp 13:04.9

(didn't check for BK's best at 24)

Adam Goucher 13:11.25

Jim Spivey 13:15.86

Dathan Ritzenhein 13:16.06 (Brasschaatt 2007)

25

World Best Geb 12:39.36

BK 12:58.21/12:58.75 (nearly 26)

Obviously, take the ages of the world best age group guys with a grain of salt, as a number of those guys never got better, so they were probably years older.

There is an American 18-year old that just ran 13:25.46. When he is 20-years old he will run faster than 13:22...That 18-year old will probably run faster than 13:22 as a 19-year old. Just saying.

piedmontcat wrote:

questionerer wrote:

How is he like Lukezic????? Lukezic is incapable of making any olympic or world teams and he's proven that time and time again. Jager has proven time and time that he thrives under pressure and good competition. Watch out for this kid.

A few years ago when Lukezic busted that 3:35 or so, LRC propped this guy up as the next great hope. After a couple of years and a steady decline, he's now "proven that time and time again" that he "is incapable of making any olympic or world teams"??? Let's see how the kid develops before we jump on the bandwagon only to see him plateau and become another Lukezic. Also, remember this 5k had no Rupp, Derrick, or Lagat and Fam raced without his head.

Well I think they were both great and for different reasons. But German has had a full year in a system now with some good training partners as well. Jager left his college life (a big move for a young guy) relocated across the country lately and made a bid to win the US championship 5K. He comes out of high school with substantially less impressive marks than German, but after being out only one year more he was racing a level ahead of him.

So I guess for me, where he came from as a high schooler to running much stronger (and he did look much stronger) than a guy who would go 4:00-8:45 for doubles all alone as well as 8:34 for two miles is very impressive.

oldoldrunner wrote:

There is an American 18-year old that just ran 13:25.46. When he is 20-years old he will run faster than 13:22...That 18-year old will probably run faster than 13:22 as a 19-year old. Just saying.

Judas Johnson...some of us (myself especially) have neckties that are older than Fernandez and Jaeger.

Who knows what can happen. The curve never points up all the way. Look at one of the most successful coaches this weekend - Salazar. His career was basically over by the age of 25. He fully admits he over-trained himself INTO THE GROUND. One of his achievements of which he is most proud was coming back from all that and winning Comrades (up) in a course record.

Lots of good things could happen, but the odds are that collectively, these athletes will end up w/ a mixed bag of results.

Lukezic has actually run 3;33.x, not one guy In the U.S. other than Webb has run faster lately and ran 1;47.x two-3 years ago.

How he cannot make a final now is beyond probably his thinking, maybe he should go to Al Sal or Jerry as well.

he looks so lost off moderate fractions today.

Has it occured to anyone else that perhaps rojo was using understatement intentionally?

Curious Chris wrote:

Has it occured to anyone else that perhaps rojo was using understatement intentionally?

On *this* message board? You assume too much....

Yes, Lindgren ran an AR 12:53.0y on May 14, 1966, in Husky Stadium (Wash.) on their clay/dirt quarter-mile track. He was 20 yr 2 mo 5 dy old.

Jager ran 13:22.18 yesterday at 20 yr 3 mo 18 dy old. I won't say "yawn;" because he's a rising star--but he has to get in line behind Gerry!

It was very close to the 3-mile WR at the time, and I think I recall (sorry, I don't have all my books here in Track Town USA) that it was superior to the 5000 WR, making it the 2nd all-time world 3M/5K performance. In those days it was not uncommon for the 2-mile, 3-mile, or 6-mile records to be superior to the metric records.

12:53.0y converts to 13:21.0 per the T&FN Big Gold Book. [A straight mathematical distance adjustment yields 13:20.5, so another half second to allow for natural slowing down for a longer distance sounds about right.]

Rudy Chapa ran 13:19.22 as a soph in the Oregon vs. Wash. dual meet, April 7, 1979, but he was 21 yr 5 mo old.

I don't think we really have to compare German's time with Evan's to decide which is "better." But the truth is that German didn't have this race in his plan, and wasn't peaking for it--he was simply trying to maintain his fitness from NCAAs--which was also directed towards the 1500.

Evan Jager was clearly aiming for this, along with the other Oregon TC boys. I think if you peaked Fernandez for this race and trained him for the 5000 more than the 1500, it wouldn't be outlandish to assume he'd be at or under Jager's 13:22. I don't think 13:18 would be out of the question, as his coach claimed last year.

Both of them have sub-13 potential in my opinion. But I could see German running close to 12:50.

FYI, the OTC group is aiming to peak in 8 weeks and have hardly raced. Look for fast times in the upcoming weeks.

i am surprised no one has yet posted the two auto responses to Rupp's races...

"yeah but none of them will ever do anything on the world stage against africans..."

"what a bunch of pussies, they all drafted off of the lead guy and then kicked it in..."

piedmontcat wrote:

Had Teg not given him the firm arm at 180 to go which basically said "simmer down" he might have taken it a bit further. That little hesitation might have conceded his bid to win it.

i must have missed that in the video... are you saying he figuratively gave him the arm? because he definitely had the extra gear that jager didn't. jager is a beautiful runner, i really enjoyed that video.

Your review of the race would be intelligent except for one fact.

Rabid fans are not going to have any effect on GF. He and his coach are not stupid enough to read this board; and if they did, listen to it.

And said "rabid fans," there are like 15 of them at best, here, posting over and over again.

German and his coaches biggest two worries are: 1) overtraining and injuries. 2) is German an early maturer who will plateau quickly and stall?

The second factor is their biggest worry. The history of USA running is littered with hispanic runners who physically matured early, and then faded away.

BA wrote:

piedmontcat wrote:

Had Teg not given him the firm arm at 180 to go which basically said "simmer down" he might have taken it a bit further. That little hesitation might have conceded his bid to win it.

i must have missed that in the video... are you saying he figuratively gave him the arm? because he definitely had the extra gear that jager didn't. jager is a beautiful runner, i really enjoyed that video.

That was not me who said that and all of a sudden makes me wonder why (again!!!) we (Brojo's) don't institute some type of mandatory registering or something to prevent folks from using others identity. The other comments were all mine, admittedly, but I did not see Teg give anyone a firm arm and never made that claim. My posts are all about this over-glamorization of Jager (I guess he's the new great white hope or something) while snubbing Fernandez's superlative performance. 3 seconds back, 2 years younger, while wearing a college uniform, and training with other (and slower) college teammates is definitely more impressive! Put the current Fernandez in that Portland/Eugene warehouse and let's see what this kid runs, while training daily with guys like Solinsky, Teg, Nelson, and the rest of those horses. Oldoldrunner said it better and more simpler than I did: 18 year old ran 13:25, will run faster than 13:22 at 19, and will run even faster at age 20 barring any tragic happenings between now and then.