Rupp will break 27 this year.

Voice of G.Rupp Fans wrote:

nice long post. all of what we are saying is that he's not going to have much of an impact on world stage. He'll improve but how much we are talking here. I say he goes 27:14 for 10k and 13:07 for 5k. That should be good for him. I DONT see him going sub 27 let alone sub 13. Do any of you guys now how fast that is. It seems like most of you guys are underestimating these barriers and just think rupp closes really fast at 28min paces and 14min paces means that its a lock for him to go sub 27 and sub 13. I'm afraid not. There is a reason why arturo barrios 10k record have yet to be broken by a non african. Its hard as hell. But all in all, I would be really happy for him to prove me wrong. -Peace-

are you saying this season or ever? i'd agree for this season simply for the long collegiate schedule and probable lack of opportunity before worlds. but 27:14 and 13:07 is essentially mebs prs before he moved on to the marathon. all due respect to meb, but i never saw meb as the runner that rupp currently is. i don't know if meb ever ran an indoor 5k but if he did it wasn't nearly as fast as galen. i guess part of my thinking is that I have spoken with guys who saw galens workouts when he was coming out of high school, and these are good runners mind you, olympic runners, and they said that the workouts he was doing were better than the best workouts they'd ever done. the thing that stuck in my mind was when one of them told me that at the intensity he was working out at he was probably not going to be "on" very often. he'd probably be flat most of the time but yet still run very nice times. they also said he may spend a lot of time dealing with injuries. the key part was when they said, if he can stay healthy and put in the years of that kind of training and build on it that he was going to be unreal and capable of things that no americans have run. that's kind of where i see rupp now, getting older and physically maturing and adjusting to all this mad intense aerobic work, and now with the addition of speed being a really, really good runner. lets just say he can run 27:05. in a race that is on 27:18 pace with 1000 to go 24:34 say he can close in 2:30. that would be 27:04 in a championship race. now i don't know if he can run 27:05 by berlin, but i'd be shocked if he was slower than abdi and meb's bests of around 27:15. i also don't know if he can close in 2:30 off of that kind of pace, put closed out his 5K in 2:25 the other night and he only kicked on about 700 of that. even if he is on 27:30 pace at 9K (24:45) and can close in 2:30 for the last 1K that is 27:15. that fares pretty darn well in international championships. it seems like nearly every race he's run from 1500-10K this year he can close at 1:55 or better while joggin in, including his 3:39 1500 so a 2:30 1K off of 27:30 pace doesn't seem unreasonable at all, does it?

correction, obviously he didn't jog in on his 3:39 1500 but for for his 5K & 10K races he was.

You are all forgetting how tough the transition is when you leave college.

Rupp will be away from campus and the camaraderie of a team. He will probably have to hang out in some other city and train on a corporate campus. He may even have to switch to being privately coached by a former athlete rather than consistently running with an entire squad. He will have to deal with pressures from a show company (if he is able to attract a contract), high expectations from clowns on message boards and fans, and perhaps even a manager.

Finally, he will have to learn how to race tactically and develop a fast kick to win off fast paces at big championships.

Clearly there is a big gap to cross here. How can you possibly believe he will improve?

That was a freudian slip... shoe company, not show company.

Are you trolling?

He'll move back to his home town and train with the same coach he's had since high school. He'll get a ton of money and won't have to worry about classes, homework or exams any more.

oh yea... wrote:

You are all forgetting how tough the transition is when you leave college.

Rupp will be away from campus and the camaraderie of a team. He will probably have to hang out in some other city and train on a corporate campus. He may even have to switch to being privately coached by a former athlete rather than consistently running with an entire squad. He will have to deal with pressures from a show company (if he is able to attract a contract), high expectations from clowns on message boards and fans, and perhaps even a manager.

Finally, he will have to learn how to race tactically and develop a fast kick to win off fast paces at big championships.

Clearly there is a big gap to cross here. How can you possibly believe he will improve?

Classic

oh yea... wrote:

You are all forgetting how tough the transition is when you leave college.

Rupp will be away from campus and the camaraderie of a team. He will probably have to hang out in some other city and train on a corporate campus. He may even have to switch to being privately coached by a former athlete rather than consistently running with an entire squad. He will have to deal with pressures from a show company (if he is able to attract a contract), high expectations from clowns on message boards and fans, and perhaps even a manager.

Finally, he will have to learn how to race tactically and develop a fast kick to win off fast paces at big championships.

Clearly there is a big gap to cross here. How can you possibly believe he will improve?

You might have some truth here considering he lives with teammates in Eugene, and did over 3/4 of his workouts with UofO this spring. You are right, the transition will not be as hard as others based on his off-season training and existing relationship with Alberto, but please don't perpetuate the incorrect idea that Rupp lives in Portland, has no connection to the UofO team, and never trains with the team.

[quote]oh yea... wrote:

Finally, he will have to learn how to race tactically and develop a fast kick to win off fast paces at big championships.

quote]

Yes, clearly learning how to race tactically will be Rupps biggest challenge :-). This dude is a master tactition and while it will be different off of faster pace, the pace itself is the real challenge. He comes out of college more race savvy than anyone I've ever seen, including Lagat. If Lagat figured it out that fast, Rupp has little to worry about.

Next year he will do it and stun everyone. But not this year. Too many collegiate races.

What're you smoking and where can I get some?

u know sh*t wrote:

KnowItAll wrote:

That would be bad for one or the other. Ritz would run himself into the ground to keep up with Rupp and Rupp could become despondent if Ritz consistently beats him. Spoiled Americans are mentally soft like that, on the whole.

if you think rupp is a spoiled american, then you are reflecting your own great ignorance. if you think he'd get despondent over training, you are showing how much you lack intelligence.

those are two things you cannot say about this kid. he's worked every step of the way.

and he is one of the most naturally happy and balanced people around.

the only person who is mentally soft here, is YOU!

besides, who are you, what have you done except display your spincter opine on a website anonymously?

I definitely think Rupp has the ability to eventfully run sub 27 and 13, but not this year. I think he gave it up for the team this year, however, I do think he can run in single digits in the 5k/10k this year. If you look at what Ritz, Cragg and Hall did in the first year following their NCAA career, I would expect Rupp to be way ahead of that; in fact, he could run with those guys right now. Rupp's NCAA dominance this year was very simular to Pre, Falcon, Rono, Nyambui and Marie; what those guys did (time wise) might be a better comparison. - What's interesting is that Rupp is an LDR and ran almost as fast as Krum, Gabe, Lassiter, Lomong and Manzano did in the mile in their NCAA career.

I don't have much interest in wading into this debate, but I do find it interesting that for years Rupp detractors have said they hate him because of his special privileges & that he's such a tool for wanting to run for Oregon but he never trains with his teammates & he doesn't even live in Eugene!! & now, suddenly, he's going to have a difficult transition to pro status because he's so used to living in Eugene & training with a group of guys all the time. It does not seem to me that both of these can be true...

dbl std? wrote:

I don't have much interest in wading into this debate, but I do find it interesting that for years Rupp detractors have said they hate him because of his special privileges & that he's such a tool for wanting to run for Oregon but he never trains with his teammates & he doesn't even live in Eugene!! & now, suddenly, he's going to have a difficult transition to pro status because he's so used to living in Eugene & training with a group of guys all the time. It does not seem to me that both of these can be true...

The first post saying he was going to have a hard time with the transition because he'd miss the camaraderie of the team, have to adjust to living in a different town etc. was laced with sarcasm. Clearly Rupp should have an easier transition than most collegiate runners. I don't think it will be at all difficult, since it will be less of a change than it is for most (although other guys that have stayed with the same or similar training groups and the same coach like Schumacher's group don't have as difficult of a transition either).

My only point was to not make a point while perpetuating false views that Rupp lives/trains in Portland, isn't connected with the UofO athletes, and never works out with the team. Those issues aren't worth debating again, and if some want to believe false info they heard from their friend that knows a guy whose cousin runs at UofO that is their prerogative.

I swinning NCAA cross and finishing seond outdoors (mostly on the backs of distance guys) wimpish?

Someone sees the sarcasm.

Galen is well equipped to move on as he has already accomplished much of the transition. My original post was meant as a joke.

Granted, he needs to get recovered after such a sustained peak and re-tool for the next wave. My point was that with all his experience, the support of Nike and Alberto.... he has "legs to run" on as they say.

Perhaps not immediately, but he will run very fast.... or shall I say, even faster.

The long post was solid. If he can rest in July, he will go 5th or 6th in Berlin. If it were to go to the last 1K at a slow pace he could do even better, but it won't.

even if he is on 27:30 pace at 9K (24:45) and can close in 2:30 for the last 1K that is 27:15. that fares pretty darn well in international championships. it seems like nearly every race he\'s run from 1500-10K this year he can close at 1:55 or better while joggin in, including his 3:39 1500 so a 2:30 1K off of 27:30 pace doesn\'t seem unreasonable at all, does it?

And I doubt may people would have thought that Teg could close in 2:25 (or thereabout) in a 5k to finish 4th and just barely miss out on a bronze in 2007... but he did. Teg had to have one of the fastest last ks in that race, and simply ran out of track.

My earlier post was not to suggest that I think Rupp can't run faster then the times I posted, but rather to say that we should be happy, as fans of American Distance Running, if he runs those. To not be happy if he doesn't break 27:00 seems ludicrous to me.

Yes he will.