Could Bekele go sub 10:00 for 4K?

bpence wrote:

KB ran 10:07.93 in his WR race

Geb ran 10:11.53 in his last WR.

That's fascinating....really makes you wish Geb and Bek could have both races in their prime. That makes Gebs time a bit closer in impressiveness to Bek's WR as he closed 1.59 seconds faster in the last 1k...had a bit too much left in the tank in comparison. Shame such a match up was chronologically impossible....

those splits are why it's worth considering geb more like a 12'36/12'37 guy than the actual 12'39 he ran

i believe geb's 3k split was ~7'40 ( i'll have to check the vid ) which was 12'46 pace & 4k of 10'11 = ~ 12'43

so between 2 - 4k he let pace drift too much but "rescued" it with blistering last 1k

you'd have to figure with say 7'35, 10'07 as splits he'd have had a much better time overall

Bekele actually ran negative splits in his WR and covered the last 4K in appx 10:04, after a first 1K of 2:33 and change. I definitely think he could have gone sub-10 on that date.

why it's worth considering him more likely a 12'35 guy rather than his actual 12'37, providing he'd had perfect pacing

in actuality, it's difficult to split the 2 guys

- kennster maybe 12'35

- geb maybe 12'36/12'37

interestingly komen ran near perfect splits in his 12'39 ( indicating virtual limit ), so the only tentative conclusion i'd suggest is that the 2 above were intrinsically superior 5k guys by at least a coupla secs

I bet with proper coaching German Fernandez could get close to it.

Northwest Apprentice wrote:

Has anyone ever heard of a 4K race being contested at the elite level?

No, on the track, there's never been any such thing and--sadly--there probably never will be.

I don't think there will be a 4k but it is a race i would love to see. I think it is possible but I think it would have to be paced perfectly.

So now we are comparing Fernandez to Bekele ! Right. Let's ask Rupp to do it. Salazar can pace him on his bike !

The 2 mile WR is 7:58, which is roughly 59.4 seconds per 400 meters. It doesn't seem likely that anyone could hold pretty much the same pace for 800 more meters.

Sure, you can argue that the 3k WR is a better record (7:20), but Komen gave the 2 mile a good try and ran 7:58 twice. Bekele (?) went 8:03 indoors which is monstrous, but still well off of the outdoor record. For comparison, Mottram has run 8:03.50 as well outdoors. Under 10:00 probably will not happen anytime soon, but if anyone can, it's Bekele.

komen's 7'58 with 1.08 conversion is 7'22, so little bit inferior to his 7'20

as for kennster's 8'03i, that likely has to be <8'00 outdoors, so likely much better than mottram & close to komen

Not to be pickey but bekele ran 8:04i for 2miles which is still incredible.

Umm -- you ever heard of Jeremy Wariner?

Do you mean for the FULL 4k?

Could? Yes, if he were in peak shape and everything went perfect.

Would? Probably not.

3K pace: 9:54.33

5K pace: 10:05.6

A Purdy Points calculation reveals some interesting (if meaningless) results:

- 12:37 5K is equal to a 9:56 4K

- 7:20 3K is equal to a 10:00 4K

- 7:58 2 mile is equal to a 10:04 4K

manbearpig wrote:

ok.....so what ten runners would fill this dream race?

tonights starting lineup wrote:

All runners at their peak season:

Daniel Komen

Kenny B

Haile Geb

El G

Saif Shaheen

Morcelli

Lagat

Eliud Kipchoge

Tergat

Another steeple guy - Barmasi? Wilson Boit Kipketer?

How about Kiptanui (3:34, 7:27, 7:56(steeple) 12:54) or Sihine (7:29, 12:47, 26:39)? One of them might fit in nicely. Probably Kiptanui more than Sihine, but either one looks good.