k. bekele vs kiprop in 1500 at hengelo

there' enough evidence there to suggest geb's kick was bigger - but you didn't bother looking for it

& geb ran all his best times over 1500/5k/10k in same year, so it wasn't as if he was "specialising" just over 1500 indoors - he was fantastic at all distances

in simplest terms, any race is

speed + endurance

the evidence we have is 1500 which can be simply considered

speed ( e g 400m ) + endurance ( e g 5k )

now, geb has 3'31i ( worth somewhere in 3'29 - 3'30 range outdoors ) whereas kennster after 3 goes at it is still 3'32

thus at least 2s difference over 1500 & possibly nearer 3

their endurance components are virtually identical ( 12'39 v 12'37 - 2s difference but proportional difference is much smaller with these much larger numbers & geb's race was poorly paced requiring a 2'29 last 1k from him to get 12'39 )

so : virtually identical over-distance endurance, but 2 - 3s difference over 1500

conclusion: geb's speed has to be significantly better in

order to provide this gap over 1500 - a faster 400 & i'd put it down as at least 1s difference & hence a bigger theoretical kick

as for geb in '03, you are forgetting that speed-endurance characteristics change with age & his speed was virtually gone by then ( outkicked by kamathi in '01 in 10k & slaughtered by chebbi in last lap of a 5k ( he was waving chebbi by him on that last lap ! ) )

he coud still run 26'29 then, but instead of a previous 3'29/12'39 guy running 26'22, he was doing it it with possibly something like 3'34/12'50 ( his 1500 speed had gone ( & hence 400 ) but his 5k had lessened less & therefore coud still run an outstanding 10k of 26'29 )

kennster can easily prove he has a kick comparable to geb - run a 3'29 - until he does, i'd rate his kick inferior to geb's of '98

ventolin wrote:

conclusion: geb's speed has to be significantly better in

order to provide this gap over 1500 - a faster 400 & i'd put it down as at least 1s difference & hence a bigger theoretical kick

You really can't make this conclusion because of the false assumption that "whereas kennster after 3 goes at it is still 3'32" Two of those three races were run in Shanghai in September - way after the season was over and were not paced as 3:30 type races. The Stockholm race had pacing all over the place and it came down to the last 400m where Bekele won and prevailed over real 1500 types like Songok, Kaouch, Boukensa, Boulahfane. If anything speaks to his kick, it's precisely his ability to win in that tactical 1500 over 1500m runners. So you really can't extract anything from the times he ran for 1500. He was not running all out. Geb on the other hand had a race where he was following ElG in a paced WR attempt, and another 1500 where he was going after the WR in a paced event.

It could very well be the case that Bekele's speed is inferior to Geb's, but one can't conclude that from the 1500m data points without making a faulty assumption saying that all of their attempts were all-out efforts to run as fast as possible. Bekele's simply weren't.

Vermonster wrote:

It could very well be the case that Bekele's speed is inferior to Geb's, but one can't conclude that from the 1500m data points without making a faulty assumption saying that all of their attempts were all-out efforts to run as fast as possible. Bekele's simply weren't.

Thank you, that is exactly what I was saying, but ventolin chose to ignore it. Also, just because Geb ran fast in the same year he ran fast 5k/10k, doesn't mean had had not dedicated a whole season(albeit indoors) to 1500/3000 racing, something Bekele has never come close to doing.

And I don't have time to compare all of Bekele best kicks vs Geb's second to second, but obviously one could make a case for either one being better at kicking. Bekele has had some devestating finishes, as good as Geb ever has. And Geb's marathon performances show his brilliant endurance. Maybe Bekele is a touch faster at 5k/10k because a) he had those records to chase, and b) had a touch more speed, not endurance necessarily... ?

Bekele has proven the equal of Geb at every distance so far. I wouldn't bet against him matching Geb at the 1500. The marathon?? Who knows (though his X-C argues he should do amazing there too).

Quit trying to infer Geb or Bekele's speed from their kicks, the only thing you'll find out from that is they both have at least 51 second 400m speed because they've both closed races at least that fast, nobody knows who is faster unless you lined them up over 400m in their prime and frankly it doesn't matter. Bekele is Bekele, assuming he's fit he'll win unless Kiprop or Keitany is just so fit they can gap the field. Bekele may not be in peak fitness because of his injury a little while ago, in which case it will be difficult for him to run with that field, and we may see him limp home in 3:34-3:38. I for one am predicting Bekele second place in 3:29mid with a strong finish, with Kiprop fading to a 3:28low for the win after racing aggressively.

the real thing wrote:

I for one am predicting Bekele second place in 3:29mid with a strong finish, with Kiprop fading to a 3:28low for the win after racing aggressively.

3:28?! 3:29?! No chance. More likely 3:33.....

Ventolin: Can we infer anything on this debate from KB's 4:49.99 2K Indoor WR. I know he broke Gebs record by over 2 seconds but I'm sure Geb could have gone faster. I did notice when watching the race that he was a little behind Haile's split but closed in around 26.xx? Thanks.

I sure hope that was sarcasm.

Ventolin's theory that Geb has more speed than Bekele is one of the worst attempts at logic I've ever seen. He's like the same as the bunch of no brain jackasses that said Bekele could never run a fast mile after running 4:01 at MSG.

I have no idea who was faster. I think Bekele had greater raw speed, but I think it is closer than some think. When Geb raced Komen (in 98 I believe) one of the announcers said something to the effect that Komen should push the pace as the "little man" would outsprint him. Geb put a move on Komen like Bolt vs. Ivory Williams and broke the WR again. I only point that out in that the commentators for what its worth thought Geb had a better kick than the 3:29/7:20 Guy.

It's gotta be boring running the 5 and 10 year after year.

Why not go for some good 1500's to keep it fresh.

Would it be so bad if he didn't even touch the longer races for one season?

there is nothing overly detrimental about time of year of those shanghai races - komen & choge both beat him in 3'31/3'32 clockings - there was nothing poor about those guys running at season end

as for "not paced as 3'30 type races", that is completely wrong

they had the full set-up of wabbits with pre-arranged targets to be taken thru in 3'30 pace

on both occasions, the wabbits were doing ok upto 800m( iirc ~ 1'52 ),but both times they ran appallingly in 3rd lap upto bell slowing to ~2'37/2'38 & chances of <3'30 disappered then

they were both bona-fide 3'30 attempts & he was definitely giving his all-out best on last-lap ( or he just likes losing ?! )

very weak

vast majority of his training for the year wouda been in previous winter & racing itself was fine-tuning

he didn't do the training to run 5k/10k wrs in the short time between indoor season & late summer - it was done previous winter & almost certainly he couda broken those 5k/10k records in early season if he'd chosen to run outdoors then rather than 1500i

your forgetting that his speed-endurance characteristics are no way comparable between '98 & '08 - his speed was vastly better in '98 & '08 version not in same league

Another issue in this argument is that Kenenisa Bekele is no longer improving as a runner. He turns 27 in a couple weeks, and he has not set a world record since 2005. He has done his best work as a track runner. He will never run 3:30. I do believe that Ventolin is correct that Geb had a step on Bekele in a sprint (in their respective primes) but they would have been very close. Either way, Bekele has likely run his fastest 1500 as well.

Another issue in this argument is that Kenenisa Bekele is no longer improving as a runner. He turns 27 in a couple weeks, and he has not set an outdoor world record since 2005. He has done his best work as a track runner. He will never run 3:30. I do believe that Ventolin is correct that Geb had a step on Bekele in a sprint (in their respective primes) but they would have been very close. Either way, Bekele has likely run his fastest 1500 as well.

Sure there is, Bekele had a much more involved xc and indoor seasons where the two others did not. He also ran the 5000 and/or the 10000m a lot while the others did not. Once again you're comparing apples and oranges.

That's *exactly* my point. The pacing was all over the place, making a fast time much more difficult than Geb's attempt. Geb's races didn't have that much of a problem with the 3rd lap.

A bona-fide 3:30 attempt would have gone through 3/4 at 3:30 pace. Sure the race may have *started* as a 3:30 race, but that doesn't mean the runners in it cared if it dipped or not. The more likely view is that they cared about winning the darn thing and tactics played into it. In Geb's races he was following ElG or following the clock without having it devolve into a tactical situation. So once again, you really can't compare the two.

& likes of komen/choge usually ran regularly in indoor season ( komen particulary tends to run a lot indoors )

then outdoors, these guys run 1500s nearly week-in/week-out compared to kennster's 5k every coupla weeks

there is no valid argument for kennster to be "more tired" at season end than these guys

there was nothing beforehand to suggest these woud be poorly wabbited races & i for one was expecting nonesuch - top guys such as komen ( 3'29 ), choge ( 3'31 ) & kaouch ( 3'31 ) looking for 3'30 with kennster thrown in

if pacing is bad, onus is on the elite guys to take-over quickly & make pace themselves with long kick from 450 - 500m out - kennster lacked balls to do it & tried to outkick them over last lap & got crushed 2 out of 3 times when he tested his kick against them ( & the one he won against kaouch he shouda been dq'ed for elbowing him out into lane 3 in desperate bid to be not overtaken ! )

yes winning is most important, but so was the time & the elites followed the wabbits - unfortunately they wabbited poorly - for elites to follow them rather than hang back 10m only shadowing kennster showed they wanted a time as well as the win

geb ran 3'31.76i with no hicham & he had to make the hard push himself a long way out & not just rely on wabbits - that showed balls over 1500 - far more than kennster has over the distance

It seems to me that YOU just don't want him to do well. He's very capable of running a 3:31 or 3:30. I don't know if he will do it monday but it's certainly in his reach. (He ran 4:49 for 2000m indoors). Why do people doubt him all the time. First it was like he's not going to win 2008 world cross then it was like he's not going to win the beijing olympic 5000m. I think one poster said he'll be lucky to get bronze lol.

Beke;e is copying Rupp's training schedule! Bastard!

I am not as big of a stat geek as most of you, nor do I care what he runs for 1500m, but here is some evidence that is more compelling (why are you guys comparing hm constantly to Haile Gebr.? -- Gebr. ran his 1500s indoors where the 3k and 1500 were his only options for WRs, titles and money).

Here is something more pertinent to consider:

Bekele -- 1,500 m 3:32.35 28 September 2007 Shanghai

2,000m WRi 4:49.99 (Birmingham, on 17 February 2007)

2 mile WRi 8:04.35 (Birmingham, on 16 February 2008)

3,000 m 7:25.79 7 August 2007 Stockholm

So all of those were run fairly recently (mos t less than 24 mos ago). i can't think of ANYONE in history who could run 4:49, 7:25 and 8:04y who COULD NOT run 3:30.xx.

I think Tergat and Mourhit had fast 3ks and they could not have run 3:30.xx ... but they could not run 4:49 either. They were 2-3 secs slower for 3000m.

Steve Cram

1500 m 3:29.67 1985

Mile 3:46.32 1985

2000 m 4:51.39 1985

2 Miles 8:14.93 1983

John Walker

Distance Time Place Date

1500 m 3:32.4 Oslo 1975

Mile 3:49.08 NR Oslo 1982

2000 m 4:51.4 NR Oslo 1976

So, if you look at these results, both Walker and Cram were WR holder at 2000m and both ran the 1500m hundreds of times. Walker had 3:49y/3:32/4:51 ability in the same timeframe ('75-76) and Cram did too 3:46y/3:29/4:51 (same year!).

So if Bekele has the same speed he had 27 months ago (4:49.99i 2k) then he likely could do somewhere between 3:29.xx (like Cram) and 3:32.xx like Walker.

He is MUCH faster than both of them at 3k/2M (like 10 seconds faster). And I know that means little since they were definitely 1500/Milers first and foremost and Bekele is a 5k/10k/XC specialist.

He is much faster than them at 2000m and I know that it is a rarely run distance, but Cram and Walker set WRs with their marks ... so they were not likely taking it easy.

Will he run 3:29 soon? I am guessing not. Could he this year? I would not count him out. We are seeing things in TandF that I never thought I would see, 2:03 marathons, 14:11 for a women's 5k, and 10,000s finished in sub-13.

On paper, if you showed me PRs for a guy and didn't tell me it was Bekele, and he had 3:32.85, 4:49i, 7:25 and a WR 5k ... well, I wouldn't bet against a 3:29.xx sometime in his life.

For my own entertainment, it would be awesome if he could run the 3k WR. I doubt he has interest in the Steeple WR and I don't think he could get that if he wanted it. But if he could run 7:19-20 he could also get the 5k/10k again after that. Beyond more medals, and trying the marathon, there is nothing else for him now.

nice post

his 4'49i is good, but 2k all-time lists are weak with only hicham/saidi-thief/morceli running "worthy" times & of those 3 only saidi-thief ran at ~ his absolute potential with 4'46 ( hicham couda gone ~2s faster & morceli ~4s quicker )

kennster's potential outdoors looks about 4'46, so i'd say his 4'49i was just about at his limit

bottom line is that he does have a 3'32.2pb & you have to justify him taking a whopping 2.2+ off that - as long as he stays a 5k/10k guy it's going to be virtually impossible