What will be Rupp's career 10k pr?

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  • please wake up and then post
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 12:14pm CDT
    re: Blind Eye
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    Blind Eye wrote:

    lohalloran wrote:

    To go sub 27 he would need to be able to go sub 13 in the 5k, or at least have the ability to do so if he focused on it. That said, do all the people who think he can go sub 27 think he can also reset the AR for 5k?

    I think Rupp has the ability to come close to it, though we have seen alot of other talented runners try and fail.

    How can you say this in the face of "please wake up and then post's" dungheap of a mountain of evidence? Foolishness I tell you!

    Now can we all get back to playing CandyLand?


    there is no such thing as evidence, there are results, fitness checks and educated guesses based of the personal experience of competing, watching or both. some people are good at the guessing, making their guesses highly educated, and some are just...well....nonsense.

    the biggest point you have made is that rupp doesn't have enough speed to go under 27:00. well, that's like...nonsense. he went 1:49 indoors and a 6 weeks prior his 400 pr was :53. you may have been in a cave but rupp has made it pretty widely know that he had not worked on speed AT ALL until this past indoor season.

    applies some speed goes 1:49, 3:57 and hits 1:55 on the last 800 of his 5K at NCAA's and comes right back and closes in 1:54 for his last half mile on the dmr.

    but yeah, you're theory on his lack of speed keeping him from 27:00 is holding up REEEEAL well.

    dang fool, you still asleep? don't drive.
  • seeing eye
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 12:17pm CDT
    re: lohalloran
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    lohalloran wrote:

    To go sub 27 he would need to be able to go sub 13 in the 5k, or at least have the ability to do so if he focused on it.

    Why?

    I mean, we're talking about just a few seconds here, so we both agree that he could be close, but I think it's completely reasonable to talk about Rupp as a lifetime 13:05-13:08 guy and still think that he could be sub 27.

    We might be arguing the same thing though, because Rupp will probably never focus on the 5k. If one thinks that his lifetime pr will be around 13:05-08 while focusing on 10k+, then I don't think it's crazy to think that he could push a sub 13 if he focused on the 5k instead.
  • Brad Nowell
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 12:26pm CDT
    re: Blind Eye
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    Blind Eye wrote:

    Brad Nowell wrote:

    Charles Kamathi
    7:41.89
    13:02.51
    26:51.49

    Those We know Rupp is good for that 3000m mark and I can see him bettering that time for 5000m, so maybe sub27 isn't so unrealistic after all.

    Good Point, But may not be a fair comparison. Bernard Lagat ran (approximately)
    1500: 3:26.xx
    3000: 7:32ish
    5000: 12:59ish
    do you thin he would break 27 in the 10000?

    By comparison to Charles Kamathi, he is getting slower the longer the race. You just cant look at one person's talent and draw good conclusions about another person's talent. Rupp does seem to perform better in the longer races compared to HIS shorter races. However, his times now are not good enough to be this agressive in the predictions. IMO


    Of course he is, because Bernard is weighted much more on the speed end of the spectrum. Compare Webb to some top Ethiopians:

    Webb
    47.x
    1:43.84
    3:30.54
    7:35.1c
    13:10.86
    27:34.72

    Geb
    49.9 (rumored)
    1:46.x (rumoured)
    3:31.76i
    7:25.0
    12:39.36
    26:22.75

    They're both of similar ability over 1500m but because Webb is running 3:30 with much better basic speed compared to Geb, it stands to reason that he;ll fall of the map with respect to Geb as the distance increases.
  • Brad Nowell
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 12:27pm CDT
    re: ccccccccccc
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    ccccccccccc wrote:

    Rupp trained already like a pro(and had even a better equipment/support than most pros) when he was in HS, it's unlikely that he now drops 40s from his 10k PR unless he is getting into heavy doping.
    Meb gradually increased his workload, started to do altitude training and so on, so he had much more room for improvement than Rupp.
    I say 27:21

    Why do you think that all the gains that he can made have been made? Don't you see value in continued training at the same level?
  • lohalloran
    registered
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 12:37pm CDT
    re: seeing eye
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    Yeah I mean that a sub 27 guy would need to have the ability to go sub 13, not that he would actually need to run sub 13. He might always focus on the 10k and run 13:05 with 10k training, a time which would obviously show he could run sub 13 if he focused his efforts on it.

    I think Rupp can come close and has a good shot of going sub 27 but it won't be easy. Look at how many talented US runners have gone for 5k and 10k AR and been turned back. He will also need to do this overseas because there aren't many sub 27:30 races run in the US.
  • putting things right
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 12:39pm CDT
    re: seeing eye
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    seeing eye wrote:

    lohalloran wrote:

    To go sub 27 he would need to be able to go sub 13 in the 5k, or at least have the ability to do so if he focused on it.

    Why?

    I mean, we're talking about just a few seconds here, so we both agree that he could be close, but I think it's completely reasonable to talk about Rupp as a lifetime 13:05-13:08 guy and still think that he could be sub 27.

    We might be arguing the same thing though, because Rupp will probably never focus on the 5k. If one thinks that his lifetime pr will be around 13:05-08 while focusing on 10k+, then I don't think it's crazy to think that he could push a sub 13 if he focused on the 5k instead.


    not having a collegiate season to worry about anymore, I wouldn't be surprised if rupp starts getting in 2-3 good 5Ks a year now between 5/1 and 8/30 even on the major international championship/olympic years and even while focussing on 10K.

    seems like tergat and geb alwasy had 2-3 in there as well as a good shot at a 10K or 2 PLUS the world champs/olympics.

    the fact is, Rupp has focussed almost entirely on COMPETING for NCAA's/USA's&OLY Trials/Worlds&Oly's over the past few years. He hasn't time chased at all other than in the mile early last year.

    the dude is a beast and he hasn't put his fitness to the time test in over a couple of years at 5K or 10K outdoors, so why are people pigeon holing him as a 27:15-27:20 guy. that's actually more silly than the people who said he'd never break for or he could never win a race because he had no kick.
  • seeing eye
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 12:43pm CDT
    re: seeing eye
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    Just to add a little support to the over 13, under 27 argument, of the 28 men in history who have run under 27 in the 10k, 9 of them have 5k pr's above 13 minutes: Kemboi, Kogo, Wanjiru, Kamathi, Sigei, Korir, Komon,Ondieki, and Kipyego. A 10th, Tadese, ran 12:59.27.

    It's also worth noting that every one of these men have run multiple 5k races in Europe to acheive those prs, and with the probable exception of Wanjiru all made concerted efforts to be sub 13 runners. 4 of them have never broken 13:05.

    None of this proves that Rupp will run sub 27, or even that he is likely to. But I don't think he's going to spend a career running 5ks in Europe like Kennedy did, so I think if he is ever a sub 13:10 guy then sub 27 should be on the table as well.
  • jonesy.
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 1:00pm CDT
    re: Sagarin
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    Sagarin wrote:

    Rupp approaches the American record this year, gets ever so close to cracking the 27:00 barrier in his career but doesn't quite get there and then moves to the marathon after 2012.

    This sounds about right.
  • please wake up and then post
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 1:51pm CDT
    re: seeing eye
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    seeing eye wrote:

    Just to add a little support to the over 13, under 27 argument, of the 28 men in history who have run under 27 in the 10k, 9 of them have 5k pr's above 13 minutes: Kemboi, Kogo, Wanjiru, Kamathi, Sigei, Korir, Komon,Ondieki, and Kipyego. A 10th, Tadese, ran 12:59.27.

    It's also worth noting that every one of these men have run multiple 5k races in Europe to acheive those prs, and with the probable exception of Wanjiru all made concerted efforts to be sub 13 runners. 4 of them have never broken 13:05.

    None of this proves that Rupp will run sub 27, or even that he is likely to. But I don't think he's going to spend a career running 5ks in Europe like Kennedy did, so I think if he is ever a sub 13:10 guy then sub 27 should be on the table as well.

    This post is full of (what should be) common sense and i completely agree with you. But can we really dispute Blind Eye's theory that Rupp just doesn't have enough speed to go under 27:00?

    On a serious note, the big point here is that Rupp hasn't made a legitimate attempt at 5K or 10K in Europe since he was a junior I believe.

    Running 13:18 on banked corners in a competitive race is a pretty good indication that he could be dragged to sub 13:10 in Europe on an OK day. A 10K over there will be something to see.
  • MPR
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 2:04pm CDT
    re: jerkstore
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    I am going to guess that Rupp will run somewhere in the 26:55 to 27:05 range in 2010-2011 and then the money and prestige of the marathon will be too much for him and he'll move to the marathon as his main focus while still touching back to a track base each summer (like Salazar did). Once he does this his may stay in the mid to low 27's but won't improve his track PR's anymore.
  • Blind Eye
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 2:31pm CDT
    re: please wake up and then post
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    please wake up and then post wrote:



    None of this proves that Rupp will run sub 27, or even that he is likely to....

    This post is full of (what should be) common sense and i completely agree with you. But can we really dispute Blind Eye...

    Am I getting under your skin Mr. Potter??????

    Waive your wand and blow your fairy dust and it all goes away. Just like the movies...:)
  • You are
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 3:07pm CDT
    re: Blind Eye
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    obnoxious.
  • Blind Eye
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 3:14pm CDT
    re: You are
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    You are wrote:

    obnoxious.

    Thank you sweet cakes. Enjoy the rest of the thread.
  • please wake up and then post
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 4:00pm CDT
    re: Blind Eye
    Forum Index
    Blind Eye wrote:

    please wake up and then post wrote:



    None of this proves that Rupp will run sub 27, or even that he is likely to....

    This post is full of (what should be) common sense and i completely agree with you. But can we really dispute Blind Eye...

    Am I getting under your skin Mr. Potter??????

    Waive your wand and blow your fairy dust and it all goes away. Just like the movies...:)


    I'm still imagining you in your violent tirade and I'm sure if your fingers could spit when they typed your keyboard would be soaked.

    You've provided me with a couple days of laughter, or at least smiles.

    And i liked your speed theory on getting under 27:00, while it lasted. I've also enjoyed your consistency in referring to things fairy like, dreamland like, candy cane like and on and on. And most recently magic (harry potter reference) It's kind of your theme and i get it. Warm fuzzy stuff. A bit of a contradiction to your lashouts here, but it keeps things spicey. Keep 'em coming.
  • Please and Thank You
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 4:07pm CDT
    re: jerkstore
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    I don't know how old Rupp is, but I assume he is about 22-23. Kenenisa Bekele is listed as being 27. However, Ethiopian birth certificates are lies and I believe there was some speculation about two years ago which indicated taht Bekele is infact 30 years old.

    Makes sense.

    SO, Bekele is 30. Which means he didn't run his first sub 27 until he was 23. This means that Rupp will be able to Run about 30 seconds slower than Bekele's all time best, which will satand around 26:15. Therefore, Rupp will PR with a 26:45.
  • jerkstore
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 4:13pm CDT
    re: Please and Thank You
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    All of these answers have reaffirmed (in my mind anyway) my original post of 26:58... and AR within 18 months.
  • VIPAM
    registered
    11 years ago 05/07/2009 9:27pm CDT
    re: jerkstore
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    His career personal best for the 10000m (track): 26:39.5 yes I think he can run 26:40 before he is done if he stay healthy and focused during (+90%) of his career!
  • jerkstore
    11 years ago 05/08/2009 3:50pm CDT
    re: VIPAM
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    VIPAM wrote:

    His career personal best for the 10000m (track): 26:39.5 yes I think he can run 26:40 before he is done if he stay healthy and focused during (+90%) of his career!

    I thought my sub-27 was a bold prediction. Well, you may be right if: 1) He keeps a steady improvement, 2) Focuses on 10k on the track as his number one goal, letting go of other distances and events unless they help his track 10k, 3) Stays injury free, 4) Gets in the right races at the right time.

    Hopefully what you say will happen, but that is HUGE. I see him going under 27, but I also see him running other events (cross, roads, etc.) that might take him off of exclusive focus on the track 10k.
  • Sir Lance-alot
    registered
    11 years ago 05/08/2009 4:16pm CDT
    re: jerkstore
    Forum Index
    jerkstore wrote:

    VIPAM wrote:

    His career personal best for the 10000m (track): 26:39.5 yes I think he can run 26:40 before he is done if he stay healthy and focused during (+90%) of his career!

    I thought my sub-27 was a bold prediction. Well, you may be right if: 1) He keeps a steady improvement, 2) Focuses on 10k on the track as his number one goal, letting go of other distances and events unless they help his track 10k, 3) Stays injury free, 4) Gets in the right races at the right time.

    Hopefully what you say will happen, but that is HUGE. I see him going under 27, but I also see him running other events (cross, roads, etc.) that might take him off of exclusive focus on the track 10k.


    ha ha ha....you guys are getting waaaaay carried away. So now Rupp will become the fastest non-african in history by HALF A MINUTE??? Non-africans can barely break 27:20, and now Rupp, the wonderboy will run 26:30's?? Sorry, ain't gonna happen (unless, as I suggested earlier, Salazar has some of his '82 blood kept in a fridge somewhere ready to transfuse Galen at the right moment).

    Rupp is good, but he is not head and shoulders above every non-african who has ever lived, such as Salazar, Lopes, Barrios, Mamede, Antibo, Brown ,etc And he is certainly not in the same league as Sileshi Sihine, whose PR is also 26:39. Breaking 27:10 for him would be huge, as in: AR, and 2nd fastest non-african ever. Let's start with THAT first before getting carried away.

    (and remember, Vipam is not the great predictor he once was. He lived off the Bekele thing for awhile, while never fully admitting that on the very same post, he said El G would never beat Bekele in a 5k. So he is was 1 for 2 on that thread)
  • perspectivation
    11 years ago 05/08/2009 5:55pm CDT
    re: Sir Lance-alot
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    not that I'm saying he's going under 26:50, but what if people thought a freshman couldn't go 3:55.0 indoors, all alone? what if people said rupp didn't have the speed to run under 4:00, or outkick fast guys in a mile? what if billy mills wasn't supposed to win a gold medal?

    all i'm saying is just because a certain group of people is stuck at some level, there is no reason to stop believing that another person who looks similar to them can't go and do a lot better. and it's only the ones with a lot of talent, hard work, and this kind of absolute belief and confidence that are capable of doing it.

    i for one think rupp is already a 27:0X runner (in capacity) but has not layed it out on the track because there hasn't been an appropriate opportunity. this summer or next that chance will come. he is consistent and keeps moving forward. once he goes 27:0X you know his target will lock on that barrier. and he has a nice record of breaking barriers. be it self imposed, peer (can we call rabid letsrunners peers?) imposed, or clock imposed.
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