I figured I should just start a new thread, since the "all-time American 5000 meter" thread has moved into a sub-argument about how much potential Rupp has for the 10k. I say he'll own the American record within 18 months. His lifetime pr will be 26:58.
What will be Rupp's career 10k pr?
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what indicates such an outstanding performance? Does he have the speed?
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True, 26:58 is a bold prediction. However, I think it is very conceivable for him to go 27:09, so I just took a little more off. I think he has the ability, resources, and drive to continually improve each season. He and Al Sal must have a long-range plan. I can see him going sub-27:20 this summer if he can get in a race with good conditions. If he builds on that, he'll get the American record the next year. If he stays focused on the track, incremental improvements will continue. Maybe he'll never get that breakthrough I predicted, but I foresee him having a career similar to Bob Kennedy, as far as consistent high-quality performances. Such consistency can lead to even higher breakthroughs.
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I say somewhere under 27:00.
Marathon well under 2:10. -
If you can just keep taking small chunks of time off of your 10k time at a high level, can't Bekele just work his way under 26:00? Bekele ran 26:20 at 22. If he can run 26:15 some day, it would be a wonderful finish to his 10k career, along with a third Olympic gold medal.
Rupp started running before Bekele did (Bekele started at 15). What exactly is it about Rupp that makes him so special? Not many 27:30 runners go on to break 27:00, especially if they're 22, which is not that young. A sub-27 10k takes a sub-13 5k. What suggests Rupp is capable of that? Absolutely nothing besides speculation and bizarre math. -
ming ding xiong wrote:
If you can just keep taking small chunks of time off of your 10k time at a high level, can't Bekele just work his way under 26:00? Bekele ran 26:20 at 22. If he can run 26:15 some day, it would be a wonderful finish to his 10k career, along with a third Olympic gold medal.
Rupp started running before Bekele did (Bekele started at 15). What exactly is it about Rupp that makes him so special? Not many 27:30 runners go on to break 27:00, especially if they're 22, which is not that young. A sub-27 10k takes a sub-13 5k. What suggests Rupp is capable of that? Absolutely nothing besides speculation and bizarre math.
His 27:33 is from 2007, the same year his 5K pr was set at 13:30. He bettered that mark indoors by 12 seconds this year, with a progressive crank down in pace, usually indicative that he was worth more right then if the pace had gone harder. Pr'd from 800-5K substantially indoors. Went 24 laps of 30-40 drill alone last fall averaging 3 or 4 seconds under pace per 1600. Yes, thats a mile longer than any other Oregon great ever has in the historical workout. Only Pre had reached 20 laps. Ran cross at a level above some VERY good runners including Chelanga who just opened the season with 27:28.
Rupp goes to Europe for a good 10K and that AR should be shaking. 27:00 is in his sights. Abdi ran 27:19 in the morning at PRE last year. That was probably worth close to the AR in an evening race. What Rupp has done in the past 7 months seems to indicate he has at least reached Abdi's level if not surpassed him, and Abdi said something of that nature himself.
I guess my question is, why do people think Meb can go 27:09 and Rupp cannot go faster???
Ohh, and Meb and Abdi and Lagat and darn near every runner from the NCAA goes on to do their best running in their mid-late 20's. Rupp will to. -
Any properly coached runner who stays reasonably healthy and keeps his drive should theoretically peak in their mid to late 20's. I very much hope Rupp does the same. I agree with the OP that his lifetime pr will likely be sub-27. I also think he'll medal in the Oly's.
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ming ding xiong wrote:
If you can just keep taking small chunks of time off of your 10k time at a high level, can't Bekele just work his way under 26:00? Bekele ran 26:20 at 22. If he can run 26:15 some day, it would be a wonderful finish to his 10k career, along with a third Olympic gold medal.
Rupp started running before Bekele did (Bekele started at 15). What exactly is it about Rupp that makes him so special? Not many 27:30 runners go on to break 27:00, especially if they're 22, which is not that young. A sub-27 10k takes a sub-13 5k. What suggests Rupp is capable of that? Absolutely nothing besides speculation and bizarre math.
Idiot post of the week -
ming ding xiong wrote:
If you can just keep taking small chunks of time off of your 10k time at a high level, can't Bekele just work his way under 26:00? Bekele ran 26:20 at 22. If he can run 26:15 some day, it would be a wonderful finish to his 10k career, along with a third Olympic gold medal.
Rupp started running before Bekele did (Bekele started at 15). What exactly is it about Rupp that makes him so special? Not many 27:30 runners go on to break 27:00, especially if they're 22, which is not that young. A sub-27 10k takes a sub-13 5k. What suggests Rupp is capable of that? Absolutely nothing besides speculation and bizarre math.
It's quite possible Bekele could run close to 26:00 by the end of his career. I mean hell, Geb's first 5k WR was 12:56 I believe, and his final one was 12:39. Say what you want about drugs, but this thread isn't about drugs. Look at how much time Ron Glarke sliced off his times over the years. He broke his own 10k WR by like 30 seconds. And yeah, it isn't the 60's anymore, but... it isn't the 60's anymore. Training is even better now and athletes are peaking later in their careers.
If there is a reason why Bekele hasn't run significantly faster than his first 10k WR (26:20... but keep in mind he was running in the 26:30's before that), it's because there's really no reason for him to. Remember Bubka? And running a paced 10k under perfect conditions isn't exactly like pole vaulting... no one is even close to Bekele at the 10k, so why should he go to meet after meet trying to lower his already ridiculous record? I'm sure he will take another few shots at it before the end of his career. He's already taken a couple of shots that went awry due to pace issues. I'm not saying he's ready to bust 25:50 right now, but I'm sure he has at least a few more ticks in him before the end of his career IF he decides that chasing the 25-lap WR is really worth his time compared to going after the 3k WR again (remember when he ran 7:25?), winning more world/Olympic titles, moving on to the marathon, etc. etc.
By your logic, no one can ever improve much from the times they run at age 19, which is obviously stupid. Before this indoor season, what suggested Rupp would ever break 13:30? Well... nothing, really! Except that knowledgeable fans understand that athletes naturally improve over time as they become physically and mentally stronger. Everyone knew he wouldn't retire with a PR over 13:30, where he had been stuck since HS, because we all knew he would continue to improve. Except you, evidently. A few months ago, your logic says he would never run much faster than 13:30. Now, it's clear that sub 13:10 will be in his sights before too long, maybe even this year. Why do you think that is? It's because your logic is flawed. -
jerkstore wrote:
I figured I should just start a new thread, since the "all-time American 5000 meter" thread has moved into a sub-argument about how much potential Rupp has for the 10k. I say he'll own the American record within 18 months. His lifetime pr will be 26:58.
Doubtful. He's not running within a minute of KB's WR time if he can't even run within 30 seconds of KB's 5K time. I don't see Rupp dropping another 12 seconds in the 5k. -
jerkstore wrote:
I figured I should just start a new thread, since the "all-time American 5000 meter" thread has moved into a sub-argument about how much potential Rupp has for the 10k. I say he'll own the American record within 18 months. His lifetime pr will be 26:58.
Doubtful. He's not running within a minute of KB's WR time if he can't even run within 30 seconds of KB's 5K time. I don't see Rupp dropping another 12 seconds in the 5k. -
Blind Eye wrote:
jerkstore wrote:
I figured I should just start a new thread, since the "all-time American 5000 meter" thread has moved into a sub-argument about how much potential Rupp has for the 10k. I say he'll own the American record within 18 months. His lifetime pr will be 26:58.
Doubtful. He's not running within a minute of KB's WR time if he can't even run within 30 seconds of KB's 5K time. I don't see Rupp dropping another 12 seconds in the 5k.
pretty silly logic. so you've put a limit on his 5K while he's a college senior and pr'ing in pretty much every event from 800-XC. and yes you can pr in xc when you run on the same course, but more importantly is that he just took it to another level as a cross country runner last fall. meb or abdi never looked near that strong in college cross and could also not touch what he has done from 800-10K on the track indoors or out and he still has yet to race a hard 5K or 10K this outdoor season, but yeah he's done progressing. -
Blind Eye wrote:
I don't see Rupp dropping another 12 seconds in the 5k.
Really? You don't see a guy with his coaching, drive and talent capable of dropping another 12 seconds in a 5k?! A previous poster had a great point about NCAA guys peaking in their mid to late 20s. Rupp has a number of years of improvement ahead of him, so 12 seconds in the 5k will happen. -
26:37.47 to place a distant 5th in a meaningless race.
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26:47.37 in a meaningless race, would be my guess opposed to a
26:37.47 in a meaningless race. That would be a more meaningful time to me. -
jerkstore wrote:
. I say he'll own the American record within 18 months. His lifetime pr will be 26:58.
Non-africans don't break 27:00. Didn't you get the memo? In fact, they don't really run under 27:10 (okay, Barrios). So you gotta ask yourself this question: does Rupp have what it takes to become, by a lot, the fastest non-african 10k runner of all time??? Even with Altitude houses and alter-G's and underwater treads and thyroid hormones and transfusions of Al Sal's 1982 blood in him, I don't know if he can do it. But I guess he has a shot. -
Hehe, yes I think he does. But you make a great point about the significance of it for a whiteboy. Kind od like yao ming in the nba.
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please wake up and then post wrote:
pretty silly logic. so you've put a limit on his 5K while he's a college senior and pr'ing in pretty much every event from 800-XC. and yes you can pr in xc when you run on the same course, but more importantly is that he just took it to another level as a cross country runner last fall. meb or abdi never looked near that strong in college cross and could also not touch what he has done from 800-10K on the track indoors or out and he still has yet to race a hard 5K or 10K this outdoor season, but yeah he's done progressing.
Look dickhead, don't break arm your patting your own back with self-indulged smugness. I didn't say he was done progressing! Please wake up and read before responding to a post I didn't write. I do think Rupp will eventually break 13:10 at 5K. However, strength can only take you so far. I think he is missing the required speed (I didn't say he wasn't fast, I am saying, IMO, he isnt fast enough). I trust he can run a 27:10 to 27:20 if he can get under 13:10 in the 5K. I want him to succeed, but I dont think its a foregone conclusion he will drop another 12 seconds.
These are what are known as OPINIONS. Tough concept I'm sure. You're piss-ant remarks are no more valid or substantiated than mine. Oh...BTW, nice tangent on the XC thing. Nowhere did I say anything about XC that should cause you to go off on a rant. Do you respond to phantom posts in order to build yourself up??? Wake up dim wit! -
Rupp approaches the American record this year, gets ever so close to cracking the 27:00 barrier in his career but doesn't quite get there and then moves to the marathon after 2012.
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jerkstore wrote:
Blind Eye wrote:
I don't see Rupp dropping another 12 seconds in the 5k.
Really? You don't see a guy with his coaching, drive and talent capable of dropping another 12 seconds in a 5k?! A previous poster had a great point about NCAA guys peaking in their mid to late 20s. Rupp has a number of years of improvement ahead of him, so 12 seconds in the 5k will happen.
You don't really KNOW that 12 seconds will happen. I would love to be wrong (and I could be) but even 13 flat for 5K makes sub-27 at 10K tough and nearly unrealistic. Of course Rupp may be the exception. To answer your first question: No, I don't see him dropping 12 more seconds at 5K.
