ming ding xiong wrote:
If you can just keep taking small chunks of time off of your 10k time at a high level, can't Bekele just work his way under 26:00? Bekele ran 26:20 at 22. If he can run 26:15 some day, it would be a wonderful finish to his 10k career, along with a third Olympic gold medal.
Rupp started running before Bekele did (Bekele started at 15). What exactly is it about Rupp that makes him so special? Not many 27:30 runners go on to break 27:00, especially if they're 22, which is not that young. A sub-27 10k takes a sub-13 5k. What suggests Rupp is capable of that? Absolutely nothing besides speculation and bizarre math.
It's quite possible Bekele could run close to 26:00 by the end of his career. I mean hell, Geb's first 5k WR was 12:56 I believe, and his final one was 12:39. Say what you want about drugs, but this thread isn't about drugs. Look at how much time Ron Glarke sliced off his times over the years. He broke his own 10k WR by like 30 seconds. And yeah, it isn't the 60's anymore, but... it isn't the 60's anymore. Training is even better now and athletes are peaking later in their careers.
If there is a reason why Bekele hasn't run significantly faster than his first 10k WR (26:20... but keep in mind he was running in the 26:30's before that), it's because there's really no reason for him to. Remember Bubka? And running a paced 10k under perfect conditions isn't exactly like pole vaulting... no one is even close to Bekele at the 10k, so why should he go to meet after meet trying to lower his already ridiculous record? I'm sure he will take another few shots at it before the end of his career. He's already taken a couple of shots that went awry due to pace issues. I'm not saying he's ready to bust 25:50 right now, but I'm sure he has at least a few more ticks in him before the end of his career IF he decides that chasing the 25-lap WR is really worth his time compared to going after the 3k WR again (remember when he ran 7:25?), winning more world/Olympic titles, moving on to the marathon, etc. etc.
By your logic, no one can ever improve much from the times they run at age 19, which is obviously stupid. Before this indoor season, what suggested Rupp would ever break 13:30? Well... nothing, really! Except that knowledgeable fans understand that athletes naturally improve over time as they become physically and mentally stronger. Everyone knew he wouldn't retire with a PR over 13:30, where he had been stuck since HS, because we all knew he would continue to improve. Except you, evidently. A few months ago, your logic says he would never run much faster than 13:30. Now, it's clear that sub 13:10 will be in his sights before too long, maybe even this year. Why do you think that is? It's because your logic is flawed.