2007 facts:
- bad weather (wind from the west/rain)
- didn't warm up
- didn't have the usual restroom experience beforehand
- went out too fast (1:23h for the half) and ended up having to walk down the hills (total time:2h58m).
2009 assumptions:
- weather: rather chilly but dry, wind from the east
- warm up, then rest room ;-)
- split at HM at 1h25m
Assume that training has been similar. Your guess?