"This makes absolutely no logical sense. There are a handful (5-10) of 13:10-13:20 Africans in World Cross Junior race, that's surely more than the two sub-13:20 guys at Nationals"
No there really aren't. That is an illusion that some of you have. You MAY at 5-10 guys that within a 2-3 year period before or after this race run under 13:10-13:20.
If you actually do the research you'll see that some guys will have a 13:1x from 2006, but yet noting under 13:40 for the past couple years. And yes they did run in Europe over the past couple years. There will be all kinds of exceptions and variations here, but when you really look at it they ARE NOT facing 5-10 guys right now that are 13:10-13:20 shape.
However Rupp and Chelanga ran that fast indoors a month or more again. These guys are probably in at least 13:10 (outdoor) shape by now, so they are a helluva challenge.
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"But yet you say they'll surely beat him so it's no failure by a measurable feat, but yet suggest that he should try and beat Rupp who is in the same league as those Africans, in other words hinting that he could challenge Rupp but not the Africans who generally are on the same exact level?"
The point is, there is plenty of great competition, likely more than he can handle right here in the NCAA, so the cop out that he is just above it and needs a real challenge holds no merritt.
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"He's facing MUCH more depth than he will at Nationals, he'll surely win the mile (2nd at worst) and could probably win the 3k (as we've seen Rupp's kick is useless at anything under a 5k)."
I'll give you this, there is more depth. There is more depth at a road race with 50,000 people and a lot of prize money than one with 5,000 people and very little prize money. That doesn't mean you will win either of them.
More importantly, thanks for your guarantee on him surely winning the mile and probably winning the 3K, but that HOLDS NOT MERRIT. That is the whole point, you don't win a championship until you have! Fernandez is fast, but his kick is NOT amazing. He fast with a strong kick. Rupp is also fast (faster over 3K) with a strong kick. Rupp has been closing in low :27 in several races this year. There is no such thing as probably beating Rupp at 3K, there is beating him or not. That is what he is passing up. In the mile, he could get anywhere from 1st-5th. You think Ulrey isn't ready to run 3:55 by now? Just because German sat on him at the first meet of the year and outkicked him doesn't mean that Ulrey can't return that favor.
German is a proven time trialer. I don't think anyone (perhaps Rupp but I doubt it) is better at this. What he is not proven at is coming up as big as his time trials with lesser competition in the Championship meets with all the boys who are aiming for that day. Beating guys mid season doesn't mean anything if you don't do it championship time.
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So to summarize, unless he gets top 3 at worlds it will all be forgotten very soon. Ritz got 3rd as a high schooler with Bekele in the race, and although it was cool it was really quite a novelty. He ended up 4th in the NCAA cross country meet the following fall. This race is just scattered, guys in this rise and fall in the years preceding it or in the years after it.
But he could always have done what all the runners who fly around the country chasing times indoors do, race NCAA's. Then, he could go to worlds.