Chris Derrick will beat German Fernandez at World XC

Doubt it....to the original poster.

J.R. wrote:

Would Canova have Fernandez running fast indoor miles in preparation for an 8k cross country? Heck no..

Who gives a crap what Canova would do. Did El G run XC year after year? Did Geb make it one of his focuses? No he did it early on and then focused solely on the track. If Fernandez focuses on track rather then world XC...good for him. If it's the other way around. Good for him. If he wants to do both like Bekele. Good for him.

Tergat made his name in XC, Geb made his name on the track. Bekele has made his name in both. Nothing wrong with any of the approaches

Shoe Fetish wrote:

To paraphrase:

"Derrick is better prepared bc he has raced a 5k and a few 3ks and German has raced a mile twice and two 3ks (one being a double)"

That is your logic? Even though German looked substantually better at the 3k than Derrick (even after running a 3:55 solo mile)?

Basically yes. Fernandez is sharp right now, his racing form indicates this.

Derrick may or may not be, but he is the most likely person to beat German when he inevitably has a bad day in Amman.

Yes Bekele has raced some indoor races, but his indoor record is rubbish compared to his outdoor feats, he has barely set any records indoors.

the next Vipam wrote:

You can't have your cake and eat it too.

that is the most retarded saying I have ever heard!

wow

3 points, simply for the sake of stating the obvious:

1)It would be very difficult to argue that German is not the fitter of the two, but fitness is not the sole determining factor in any race. Certainly, it's important, but it's not everything.

2)Also, Puskedra can not be removed from the conversation. He may have been beaten pretty solidly at USA's, but the fact is he was 5th at NCAA Cross, and he's still just as healthy as the other two.

3)Now, there can be no questioning that German is an incredible talent and a great racer, but fans have to be careful not to deem him invincible. Remember NCAA Cross. Yes, a freak accident, to be sure (and anyone who says otherwise is delusional), but that is my point exactly. In racing, the unexpected can happen just as easily as the expected. Making a confident prediction is far from unreasonable, but to speak as if it's a statement of fact is a denial of reality.

(Sigh)I suppose I have to live up to my username now. Alright, it's a stretch, but here goes: all 3 in the top 20, all three within 30 seconds of each other, order of finish is Puskedra, Derrick, Fernandez. Crazy, I know. But who knows? Maybe by some strange turn of events I'll be right and make the letsrun front page!

[quote]the baker man wrote:

I predict cake will not be a deciding factor.

Also, if German cannot eat the cake he has, and obviously he cannot eat the cake he does not have, then he is going to be sad on his birthday.

I hear you brother.

German will beat derrick by 20-40 seconds. MARK MY WORDS. Really what does he have to do to show u that he is not on human level.

German ("Hurmaun") turned 18 last November.

Heard through the grapevine wrote:Why do people keep saying German is primarily a 5k and 10k runner, when his times at shorter distances, especially the mile, are so much better? Not trying to be snarky, I seriously wonder where this idea comes from that he gets better with longer distances, when his times show the reverse.

His times don't show the reverse. His 3000 time is as good as his mile; his two mile last year was better than his mile. And he and both of his coaches have made public statements suggesting that he may be better at longer distances.

This is from today's RW article: Do you think ultimately, he's going to be more of a 5000 guy than a 1500 guy?

DS: I think he'll be a great 5k guy. I don't know what his true quarter-mile speed is. We don't do time trials or anything like that, we just kind of figure it out. I would guess he could run 50-point on a good day. He says he ran 51.9 in a relay split in high school. I think his strength is his strength. It's his aerobic ability. Beyond OSU, when his career is further down, he's going to be a great 10k. His high school coach still thinks the marathon's his event, but I think that's ten years away. As far as I can see, he'll be a 1500/5000 guy for most of his career here (at Oklahoma State).

Catch Me If You Can wrote:

German is the best distance runner America has ever produced.

Easy, there.

He's 18.

Give him time.

Guess this thread was one race off. It's more fun this way to have a more level playing field. Maybe Puskedra will be next to pop a big race.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

Guess this thread was one race off. It's more fun this way to have a more level playing field. Maybe Puskedra will be next to pop a big race.

Well 28:34 for a freshman is pretty big, and most likely if he was at stanford it would have been a bit faster. The 10K debut is harder than the 5K (though for Derrick it wasn't a debut) especially for freshmen. Luke might have run around 28:20 or better at stanford, and that's right in there with 13:30 for 5K at their age.