Derrick will beat Fernandez.
Not because he is a better athlete, but because he is better prepared.
You applaud Coach Smiths training, then admit he has not event specific plan? that he is just getting Fernandez fit..
Ever heard of racing into shape? even if you are only doing strength work, if you race mile and 3km races all out you will round into shape.. even if the total volume doesn't drop.
Name a guy who is a remote threat for the SENIOR XC race is running anything like what Fernandez is running?