haha, YO wrote:
possibility wrote:German will be out of his league at worlds. He will go out too hard believing a little too much in his abilities and not know how to not win and still run well. Luke Puskedra will be running for top 20 and will catch him and be the first junior in 17th place.
Puskedra will be the third US junior across the line, bank on it.
What I'm banking on is Lanana and Luke doing just what they did last fall, being ready at the right time for the right race! I actually think that Luke finishing 3rd at Junior Nationals as he starts his 2009 campaign is a good sign. He's rusty but still running well. Luke never had a step of his 2008 season behind Derrick except at the end of a couple races since Luke was going out with the leaders and Derrick was going out more conservative and catching him at the end.
The result of junior nationals is also the result of who was the sharpest going into the race. Granted German should win, if he's the sharpest or not, but the margin would be smaller if he wasn't that sharp or if they all were. People can say it was a national championship, but I guarantee that for Lanana, it is just a qualifying race in the middle (actually beginning) of Lukes season.
People can say what they want, but it's pretty clear that German was pretty embarrassed at his scratch on the achilles that let his team down and let the two other freshman to get top 7 finishes at NCAA's. He obviously wasn't hurt bad and he went after training a bit different than the Luke and Derrick. I bet you his pace picked up on his "easy" runs and his intensity picked up in his workouts. Most of all his mind was already in "prove it" mode. That is the biggest difference. So much of "being fit" or "peaking" is mental (i.e. Alan Webb) and German's mind has been sharp since before his first mile race.
Derrick may have had a little of that too since Puskedra had the honor of finishing as the top freshman at NCAA's, in one of the top freshman finishes over the last decade.
I think Lanana, in his wisdom, told Chris to take a nice break after NCAA's and is now doing what he should do with a freshman. Take the long term approach. Keep things in perspective, and focus on the things that really matter, mental and physical health and getting up for the BIG races.
Coach Smith is likely doing what most younger coaches with a big talent do. Getting excited and showing it off, not intentionally but without the prowess to hold it back. It takes a real master to be patient, conservative and to keep the proper perspective.
So in summary, if the predictions went in terms of talent it would be German in first, followed by either Derrick or Puskedra.
But due to things like coaching, I predict Puskedra could be the first one in. Even if not, I predict he makes the biggest jump in performance from junior nationals, which will bode well for the rest of his outdoor season if he uses it.
In case you forgot, Puskedra was doing leading work for the chase pack at NCAA's as a freshman. Derrick was tucked in the pack and German had finally caught it before he dropped out.