Ok, so just a couple of items so we can be on the same page:
1.) I see no reason for this to get personal or chippy, and it surprises me that it did (actually, not really). I have no vendetta to exercise against Flagpole or others, an I have not, certainly not on this thread, accused him of being arrogant, having a big head, or being overzealous. Simply making points that, while not directed to him personally, may challenge his underlying thesis. And to think, while Flaggy may not have lobbed any expletives, this is the guy who, on this thread I believe, asserted that as soon as you start the name-calling, you have lost the argument.
2.) I would never assert that I or anyone else in the business is a "better" investor than Buffett. He follows some very good fundamental concepts like solid and sustained EBIDTA, FREE cash flow, and an understandable, recurring business model, which served him well while the structural trend was intact. Moreover, too many analysts get away from the fundamentals, chasing ousized returns not adjusted for risk. My 25-year time frame is not all that different from Flaggy's or Buffett's AS I'VE ALREADY STATED. But I am a trader, with a short horizon, and until I fully grasp the implications of this brave new world we are entering and believe that the market has fully discounted the AFTERMATH of the structural dislocations and tampering of our bumbling government officials, I am in no way inclined to send the all's clear signal.
3.) I can specifically remember responding to a post from Blowing Rock Master or Carnivore or someone else @ Dow 7400 when Citigroup seemed to be going through its initial capitulation, that we would probably get a rally, that we would see the pundits come out and IMPLY that you may have missed the bottom if you weren't in, and that that rally should be faded. I'm certainly not the only one, and I'm definitely not the smartest guy in the room. Never said I was. But this is not a market for the meek and unwise.
4.) I will attempt to take a page from the playbook of many of the more astute traders on here and post sparingly. I can see I'm doing little good. Besides, everytime we have another sell-off, the panic sets in, and I get "tasked."
Good luck to all.