INCORRECT!
The truth steve wrote:
...the true unemployment rate is over 10%, most experts are using that rate.
Well, at least you're funny! In all seriousness, no matter how you go about it, I wish you financial GREATNESS in 2009!
True Beleever wrote:
Thanks so much, brother. Now I need to check with I Love Peeps and find out where to invest my gold (now that I can finally dig it out of the back yard.) You two are the best!!!!
At 10,000 the DOW will still be lower than it has been for 75% of the last 10 years. If one were to wait until then he would definitely benefit from the drop in the market. Besides most market timing models would have you enter at a value lower than that.
Flagpole wrote:
By the time they finally feel like getting back in, the DOW will be above 10,000 -- a far cry from the low of 7,400, and too late to take advantage of this super low market.
You are correct, and as you know, I'M not the one who wants to time markets. My point was to those who live and die by timing markets that they MIGHT have missed the bottom. Just best to not even try. Regular twice monthly contributions and then once in a great while extra lump sums if you feel the market is down. Once you're doing more than 15% of your salary, if you want to speculate a bit, then go ahead.
Blowing Rock Master wrote:
At 10,000 the DOW will still be lower than it has been for 75% of the last 10 years. If one were to wait until then he would definitely benefit from the drop in the market. Besides most market timing models would have you enter at a value lower than that.
Could be. I think you're right about the price of energy. Oil just CAN'T be long at the cheap level it has been recently. Again, remember that I didn't call a bottom -- just said it's possible that the bottom has come and gone. Even if the DOW dips below 8,000 again as you suggest, that's still not 7,400. I would love to see the DOW hang around 8,000 for a while yet. I've got more accumulating to do. An energy spike though isn't ALL a bad thing. Usually one part of an energy rise is due to demand. If demand is high (especially on emerging markets) this means that production is on the rise, and could be a signal that the recession is ending.
John Smallberries wrote:
2009 will be a year of shocking corporate earnings reports. We have yet to really see the market respond to anything more than a quarter of bad news. Markets are forward looking, but not as much as they used to be. No one will hold or buy when corporate profits nose dive in 2009.
Also, any recovery will smash up against an energy price spike. Oil companies are slashing there capacity and won't be able to respond when demand is restored. Also, exploration activity is going to all but cease in 2009. That will just make the price spike even worse.
Even with the Obama stimulus, 2009 will be a very bad year for the market. Look for the market to slide back under 8000 in 2009.
The hysteria following the retail YE is what I am waiting on. I expect a big short period drop as the market digest those numbers. Then I'm all in.
in the shorts wrote:
Retailer numbers coming in January.
Except that, a 5-10 year time frame is too short. The Dow could very well be below where it is now, and perhaps much lower in 10 years. A possibility that no buy-and-hold investor can possibly fathom, but the halcyon days of the US have passed it by, and if Obama makes good on his policy pledges, I fear the long-term effects will be calamitous, as they were in Japan. Debt deleveraging is a painful, arduous process, and if we continue our misguided, tampering efforts, it will ensure a chronic malaise. Prince was correct -- it was time to party like it's 1999.
gregward wrote:
the MAIN point of his post is: get in the market if you're not going to get out for at least 5-10 years. Smaller, patient investors can reap the benefits of larger investors' movement to bonds and other "safe" holdings in the interim; once they move back into the market, smaller, more agile investors stand to benefit, long term, as indices rise with economic recovery.
Sagarin,
Sagarin wrote:
The market may sniff 10,000 early this year and the Flagpole Willys of the world will express their "vindication" ad nauseum as they already are. And that is a contrarian signal.
Flagpole, I jest somewhat, but I don't want investors to get lulled into complacency, believing that the next 20 years have to be just like the last, with very little grounding in formal economics. The be careful what you wish for phrase comes to mind for all of the bushy-tailed 20-somethings on here who voted for "change."
Flagpole wrote:
Even the 10 years you mention is too short a time for me to be concerned with, and that should be even more so for a new investor under age 30.