Da. Mercado +29
Di. Mercado +29
Da. Mercado +51
Di. Mercado +1:07
Da. Mercado +29
I suspect Chapa got the good-will-sentimental bid to run regionals, so we won't really pay attention to that. Also of note, regionals was a 10k, but as the green and yellow faithful will tell you "Slim Shaddy just cruised in and wasn't really kicking, he could've gone way faster", so I think we can use those two factors to roughly negate each other for the purpose of comparing their gaps to the previous 8k's. Basically, they look pretty damn consistant - #3 22-26 behind Kiptoo, #4 25-29 behind, #5 29-31 behind, #6 29-46 behind, and #7 37-42 behind (ignoring Chapa still).
Individually, Trujillo has dropped off the map, Klotz has been VERY consistant, Danny M. appears to have just had an off-race at Pac-10's, Wall has been pretty consistant with his worst race as his first, Acosta's kind of a crapshoot, probably won't be seeing from Wheating, Centro, or Chapa at nats. Diego M. could be in the same situation as his brother and is my bet to fill out Oregon's team.
So to extrapolate those gaps to 10k times, we'll simply multiply by 5/4. Makes the gaps behind Kiptoo roughly 31, 37, 38, 45, 50. Looking over the recent history of the NCAA meet, last year seemed like a fluke regarding how many individual qualifiers finished up front. 2 years ago seems more representative of a normal race. So assuming Kiptoo is truly a top-10 caliber runner this season (which I'm not convinced of), we'll slot him in at the 10-spot overall (Rupp at 1) and see where everyone else would've fallen in.
49/35 (not accounting for the inserted UO runners, since it's a rough estimation anyways)
This gives them ~120 points, and I feel that might be somewhat generous. I feel Kiptoo is probably going to finish closer to 20th than 10th. Here's that scenario (still giving Rupp the W)
For a score of ~170
I predict they score about 150 - good for a top-3, but not good enough to win it. If they run like they have a habit of (going out with all 7 in the front and "controlling" the race (whatever that means) and then seeing how well they can hold on) then I could see them with ~180 points.