Olympic Trials Marathon--Which favorite is most likely to DNF

1. Khalid will not finish

2. Meb will not finish if it is sub 5 minute pace at halfway as he is nursing a calf injury and will only be a factor if it is slow from the gun.

3. Ritz will not finish with an excuse that will make us all laugh.

culpepper.

Meb and Abdi are going to make the team.

Unless Khalid is in a position to make the team, he will dnf and then come back to run a major marathon in the near future.

Ritz will finish with an excruciatingly slow last mile, will not make the team, but will be praised for his toughness.

yeah i could see this... although I am pulling for khalid to come through

a few predictions wrote:

Meb and Abdi are going to make the team.

Unless Khalid is in a position to make the team, he will dnf and then come back to run a major marathon in the near future.

Ritz will finish with an excruciatingly slow last mile, will not make the team, but will be praised for his toughness.

I would have to say KK and Sell. I don't think that Kannouchi will be able to finish, although I would love to see him on the team because that only increases the chances for US medal in Beijing. Sell, well, I don't know, I just think that something will go wrong, I don't seem to remember him dnfing yet, and it pretty well has to happen to everyone.

Abdi will finish. Sell will definitely finish. If Khalid is still a favorite, he's the favorite least likely to finish.

All the favorites are professional runners. If they see the top 3 slots slipping away from them they will quit and save it for another day. This will particularly happen between the 18 thru 23 mile marks.

More top runners DNF nowadays than ever in the past; particularly if the prize $$$ has already slipped out of their grasp.

Any and all of the favorites (except for the Hansons) who are having a "bad" day will DNF from this particular event.

Anyone that DNF's is a pussy. That is why I will cheer as loudly as possible against Meb and Khalid and Culpepper who all did not finish their last marathon. If you care about your public image don't DNF. It may be saving yourself for anothe paycheck but the public will not give you that much latitude. Remember the whole drama surrounding Jerry Lawson going into the 2000 trials? That was classic.

"The baby" or "I am getting ready for the 10K in Beijing" - and of course we all know that he has no shot at nothing according to his coach.I predict that if others run well Meb, Abdi, KK, Sell, Hall, Culpepper, etc - and Ritz doesn't deliver, yet again - he'll be taking orders from someone else. Ritzer - do yourself and your young family a favor, move on to someone with some experience. It was not too long ago that your "adviser" was pumping every Tom, Dick and Harry at BRC for his coaching services - then he stumbled upon a gold mine of opportunity and naivety.

Resevoir Challenged wrote:

3. Ritz will not finish with an excuse that will make us all laugh.

KK is definately the most likely to DNF and probably most likely to DNS.

I say that if Ritz drops out of contention for a spot on the team he will stop early. Same goes for many of the better track guys running intheir first or second marathon.

Wil not DNF under most any circumstances: any member of Team Hansons

If he has no shot at nothing, does that mean he has a shot at something?

Big Whopper wrote:

"The baby" or "I am getting ready for the 10K in Beijing" - and of course we all know that he has no shot at nothing according to his coach.

You obviously don't know Brian well enough to put him in the category of potential DNF'ers. That kid could get his legs broken at mile one and he'd still figure out a way to make it across the finish line.

You're a piker for even thinking such non-sense.

It is the job for the pros. If the best way to manage your income is to do something (say, DNF) then why should they do something stupid. Also, I think the DNF will happen more likely if there is an injury problem than from blowing up. In the blowup category you might see them finish at a pace that will not kill them. They might go from sub-5 as it heats up after 30k to 7 for a mile or two to recover, then 6+ the rest of the way in.Answer this question seriously. If you were the athletes: 1) agent; 2) coach, would you be advising them to stay in even if a) dropping off the pace and cannot get top 5 or even top 10; b) have an injury (foot, thigh, calf, etc).Thus there are four questions. Since you are so strong in your opinion give us an honest answer for these four cases.

Pro or not wrote:

Anyone that DNF's is a pussy. That is why I will cheer as loudly as possible against Meb and Khalid and Culpepper who all did not finish their last marathon. If you care about your public image don't DNF. It may be saving yourself for anothe paycheck but the public will not give you that much latitude. Remember the whole drama surrounding Jerry Lawson going into the 2000 trials? That was classic.

It is also the job of a pro to maximize their earning power. A RD is more likely to bring in an athlete that is more popular amongst the people. For example Ritz was worth more than Gilmore last year in New York even though gilmore beat him. Why? Because Ritz was more popular. A DNF will make an athlete less popular and therefore can decrease future earnings.

KK will DNF and then Win CIM in world record time!

This is why elite athletes always have excuses. My calf is hurt. I had food poisoning. Instead of I GOT MY ASS HANDED TO ME BY BETTER PREPARED ATHLETES.

What is that reporter from denver?

WOW. Peeps way off base here...

Not completely. A lot of people said that the Hansons guys would all finish and that was true. Except for O'Brien who was scheduled to drop out because of the short turn around time from OSAKA.