This year's race will have the most depth I have seen since the early 80s; however, there is no one who stands above the crowd.
TIER 1 - I can make a case for either of these guys:
Khalid - The x factor, he is either going to win it or DNS/DNF, btw a 2:12 marathon is a training run for Khalid - I think he need a fast pace to assure victory
Abdi - Dominated the USATF 10K, ran strong in the Olympic 10K and his performance at the Philly and NYC halfs in my mind are on par with Hall's half USR - can win off of any pace
Meb - Has looked really good in some shorter races this year, at the very least, if he remains healthy there is no way he will not make the top 3 off of any type of pace
Hall - Even though he is the American record holder for the half and has a 2:07 debut, he needs one or two more solid performance before I am sold - I think he needs a fast pace
TIER 2 - The marathon is the most unpredictable of running events; If any of the tier 1 guys falter, these guys will step in:
Culpepper - He won the USATF XC against a great field, he beat Adbi, Ritz, Torres and Goucher among others in that race, this year's 12K race was suited to a marathoner
Ritz - I am absolutely convinced Ritz can be a great marathoner, I think NY was an aberration, a learning experience
Sell - ran 2:10 on the Boston course, this tells you he is capable of 2:11 on the NY course, if the race is at a 2:11 pace, this will eliminate everyone but the tier 1 and 2 guys
TIER 3
Gilmore - I don't think he can run a 2:12 pace and then kick the last mile, which is what it might come down to
Cabada - I don't think he run a 2:12 pace and then kick the last mile, which is what it might come down to - he has never broken 29 in the 10K
Famiglietti - If Fam is in the race with a mile to go, all bets are off
Browne - A very capable runner, but I don't know what to expect coming off of injuries
Torres - A 27:42 10K guys has to be respected, he has a good build and stride efficiency for the marathon
Goucher - I am reading Running with the Buffaloes, based on his training runs, he probably could have run a 2:12 marathon in the fall of his senior year at Colorado - 1st time guys are dangerous
Shay - Capable of being in the mix for most of the race at a 2:12 pace
Hussein - Capable of being in the mix for most of the race at a 2:12 pace