Merrit will win the worlds

You raise an interesting point about the 4x400 relay. With the people available, this has the potential to be one of the great relays of all time and challenge the world record. I think that Taylor does have sub 44 potential, as you implied while Wariner and Merritt have already done so. Additionally, I think that down the road Clement certainly would have the potential to break 44. However, these guys are so good that I can't envision anyone staying close enough for them to really push them to a record. Perhaps the Bahamas could provide a challenge if they had a couple other decent guys to go along with Brown and Moncur.

In a sense, this is why it would be very beneficial if Merritt does take steps to close the gap between himself and Wariner. If both of them are competing at a higher level in the coming years, I think that then it will be much more likely to see one or both of them dip in the 42 second range. (And I am stunned that I am saying this and do believe that it is possible.)

I disagree with you, CMW. Your reasoning that Merritt will continue to get faster simply because Wariner has continued to get faster is seriously flawed. Maybe Merritt will reach the height of his ability before Wariner reaches his. Maybe Merritt's potential in the 400m is less than Wariner's. We don't know. Everyone's physical limits/potentials are different.

Also, your analysis does very little other than to illustrate that Wariner will always be faster than Merritt, as long as both are competing. Yes, the times you've indicated for each athlete at each level of their careers appear somewhat similar. But what you fail to consider is that Wariner's career is two years ahead of Merritt's. As a 21 year old, Merritt just ran 43.96. And as a 21 year old, Wariner ran 43.93. But that was two years ago for Wariner. At the present time, Wariner is running much faster than Merritt. In other words, if both athletes continue to compete and improve (as you believe they will), your analysis only indicates that in realtime, Wariner will always be faster, because currently he is faster.

Okay, first of all, my analysis is in no way flawed. At no point did I say that Merritt will get faster, I simply asked the question at to whether others believed that Merritt had peaked. All I have said is that if you look at the times that they have run at similar ages, the times have been quite similar. At no point did I say that this will definitely continue down the road. Please read more carefully.

And really, how does my analysis illustrate that Wariner will always be faster than Merritt as long as they are both competing? All I have stated were facts about what they have run to date. Who is to say that Merritt doesn't run 43.35 sometime later this season and put himself ahead of where Wariner is right now? But at the same time, who is to say that Wariner doesn't break the world record the next time he competes? Please find me where in my analysis I actually made a prediction about the future.

Poor thing. That whole "logic" thing is tripping you up. I can't help you.

No "I told you so" for you fool.

JJ wrote:

Poor thing. That whole "logic" thing is tripping you up. I can't help you.

Don't worry, I need no help from you, and it appears that you would be in no position to do so if I did. Again, if you read my original post, I simply stated facts as to what times Merritt and Wariner have run at similar ages. In addition to this, I queried the other posters about something. The tense of my post in no way stated anything definite about the future. In fact, I never stated whether I actually thought that Merritt would beat Wariner in a meaningful race. That you chose to read more into what I said than what was actually written is your failure, not mine. I think it is you that needs a lesson in the ideas of "inferences" and "assumptions."

Well....i did say he would...

Just so you know, yesterday wasn't worlds idiot.