Renato Canova, Jason in, Wejo, Malmo etc...input on Ryan Hall's 2007 10000m/marathoning potential?

Also, Meb dialed the training back just a little after NYC for a mental break and mainly because he and his wife had a new baby in the house.

honskonchobinnie wrote:

c'mon wrote:

Give the Paula Ivan thing a rest, as her "success" was probably driven by PEDs as much as by what you call courage.

image:

http://www.geocities.com/webalby1500fotos01/Paula_Ivan.jpg

Ngugi, despite being banned for refusing for taking a drug test, is less suspect.

You only say that because he's African. He came up with the most ridiculous excuses because he was hiding something. These days, officials in E. Africa will just claim the runner is 'away' at some village with no phone, etc. IF they even have testers show up at all. Generally, they're protected by politics.

Stupidest shit I've ever heard. Why protect countries that can't put a dime into the sport, meanwhile African dominance erodes trakc/distance interests in America and Europe who supply all the funding?

"Why protect countries that can't put a dime into the sport"

-because they literally have nothing else.

This is it? This is the X-Files/Cigarette Smoking Man lynchpin to the grand conspiracy to keep down Western distance runners?

How many Africans benefit from distance running? A few hundred Ethiopians and a few thousand Kenyans?

And since when have powerful companies and organizations wanted to turn down money to give a leg up to poor Africans with "unpronouncible names"?

Nike/USATF lobby to protect big names from positives -- okay, that makes sense. There's money to be lost. Not here. Money rules all.

mobile9 wrote:

Stupidest shit I've ever heard. Why protect countries that can't put a dime into the sport, meanwhile African dominance erodes trakc/distance interests in America and Europe who supply all the funding?

What makes you think it's about money? Think about it.

JD is AL wrote:

mobile9 wrote:

Stupidest shit I've ever heard. Why protect countries that can't put a dime into the sport, meanwhile African dominance erodes trakc/distance interests in America and Europe who supply all the funding?

What makes you think it's about money? Think about it.

Because this is planet Earth. Nobody is supressing American/European distance runners and giving illegal aid/protection to African runners because they're a humanitarian. There needs to be.a profit to be had, in which case you would want runners that are marketable to the buying public to win races/titles. Who is going to buy Nike because Ezekiel Kemboi wears Nike? Kenyans don't have the money and Americans don't know who he is and could give a shit.

The McMillan calculator gives Hall's equivalent estimation for the marathon close to 2:06, based upon his HM time of 59:43. It also gives him a 26:50 10k. I can see him running these times, but not within the next year.

The athletes that ran times similiar to Ryan Hall's 59:43 in the 1/2 marathon in the last two years went on to post 10000m or marathons:

Samuel Wanjiru (Ken) 59:16 1/2 mar...26:41.75 10000m (2005)

Patrick Ivuti (Ken) 59:47............2:07:46 Mar (2005)Zersen Tadesse (Eri) 59:15 1/2 mar...26:37.35 10000m (2006)

While I'm not suggesting its guaranteed Ryan runs those times its definitely a possiblity. The only things stopping him would be injury a string of bad races etc. I certainly would think in 2007 he is capable of running around sub 27 minute 10000m or 2:06:59 in the right conditions san a bad race.

JD is AL wrote:

What makes you think it's about money? Think about it.

I did think about it. You could be right in some fashion. Track doesn't generate much money in the grand scheme of things. I have watched what they are doing to your professional Hockey in the U.S.. I am in Europe. The man in charge is no doubt trying to destroy it in a way that makes it look like he is trying to change and help the sport. But I am not sure that is happening in track. Your professional sports in the U.S. are set up to present certain images for marketing. In a way different from European Leagues.

The powers that be in the NHL do seem to be doing things designed to hurt the sport. They are deliberately trying to alienate the people that buy the tickets, that watch on TV. You think someone is doing this to track and other sports?

I think Hall should drop back down to the 5 & 10 during this summer and go for the 10 k (and maybe marathon too) in Beijing.

I arrived yesterday to Italy from Kenya, where I read on the IAAF site about Ryan Hall. As I don't know well the guy, and his training system, I cannot say something precise about him. However, I can expound my opinion regarding relation HM / Marathon.

Half Marathon is strictly connected with the ability in 10000m, CAN BE connected, in the future, with the Marathon, but it isn't a real test for the full distance.

You can run HM at the speed of your Anaerobic Threshold, that can be about 4-5 mmol for athletes, well prepared, coming from shorter distances. That's means that, if you are able to use a good distribution of rhytm, more even possible, you can run without too much accumulation of lactate, being able to remove from your fibres IN REAL TIME the lactate that you produce. For a top specialist of 10000m, only increasing his mileage (and the length of intervals too) without reducing the speed, can be a very good preparation for a strong half. In my experience, for example, I coached Paul Kosgei to win, in the first HM of his life, WHM Ch of 2002, however he was not able, at that moment, to run consistantly longer than 25 km (2 years later he bettered the WR of 25k in 1:12:45). The same last year with Robert Kipchumba : he was able to prepare 59:27 in Rotterdam with 2 months of preparation, and the 2nd place in WRRCh in 20k, but this doesn't mean anything looking for Marathon, because his mentality is yet very far from a correct training for this event.

One thing is the ability running a fast HM PREPARING MARATHON : this is a very good mark of good shape and very good training. Other thing to suppose that you can run a very good marathon PREPARING HM : this is completely wrong.

So, I don't know if Hall has the attitude for running a top marathon or not. If yes, he needs time for moving, under psychological and metabolic point of view, to a correct training and interpretation of full marathon. If he wants to try that road, I can suggest to run a good (but not top) marathon in November, having the only goal to make an experience (looking for 2:10 / 2:11), also because can be interested, for him, running WHMCh in Udine on 14 OCT, and the best thing is to have 4-5 weeks between a top HM (prepared for HM....) and a Marathon, and a bigger Marathon at the end of March 2008, for having time to prepare Beijing for Olympic. But, in Osaka this year and in Beijing, we go to face a very bad situation, with temperature of 30/35 degrees, and humidity of 85/90 %. Those are not the best conditions for a not expert athlete. In those conditions, for example, I suppose that Kenyan athletes cannot be too much competitive.

On the other side, I can be sure that 59:43 can be compared, without any doubt, with a under 27:00 time in 10000m. My opinion is that Hall, looking to his palmarees in the past, can try to prepare a 10000m under 27:00 for WCh, running about 13:00 in 5000m. One thing that can be very positive for him is his ability in running alone : this is one of the most important attitudes for becoming a Marathon runner.

But US must have patience. Instead, I see always a lot of hurry, from media and fans, with your young top athletes, and this is the real main problem that American runners have to face. Before speaking of medals, give to your athletes time to grow. You cannot win without top international experience, and you can do it only using time, may be 3 years. Going to World Ch or Olympic, an athlete must be IN HIS WORLD, being AN ACTOR, NOT A SPECTATOR. Too many times, an excess of pressure provokes bad results, destroying self confidence for long time. Don't do this mistake : low profile is the best way for becoming a top champion.

Mr. Canova, please post here more often. It is refreshing to read intelligent thoughts.

Mr. Canova, My God this is GOOD stuff. A ton of meaningful information, discernible(somewhat!)to a non techie like myself. We need more posts like this....can we rent you out??!!

Renato,

Ryan Hall has many years of aerobic running behind him. At 16-18yrs of age, he was running 5000-6000 km/yr, with training runs of 16km in 50' or less. He has lived and trained for most of his life at 2100m of altitude. By 18 yrs old he had run 50.5 for 400m, 1:51.0 for 800m and 3:42.7 for 1500m, at the time running 130-145km/wk.

At university, he missed many seasons with various injuries. In the end, he was able to run second place at the NCAA xc championships to Ritzenhein and win the 5000m. His best time is 13:16.

He has said that in the past few months he has been training consistently at 210km/wk at his home at 2100m of altitude. His key hard effort has been a 12mi (19.3km) run at 3:00min/km at altitude.

Your input is, as always, greatly appreciated.

From what I know Ryan Hall does have the attitude and is aiming at the marathon. As you say, he has demonstrated that running alone is, for him, no problem. He ran his own race and put up a world class performance completely by himself.

I think he should run in Boston (not London) this April, so that he has his debut under his belt before the American trials in November. Not to harbor overly high expectations, but it seems he would make the Olympic marathon team easily. I am not sure the 10,000 is in his sights at the moment.

Of course I did, and of course we all know an HM is more akin to a 10k than a full M. He also said he knows nothing of him, and doesn't think he should jump up to the marathon too soon. My point was that RH has already planned to jump up to the marathon this year, and based on proper planning for that he should do very well. I think you are the one not reading everything here.

Renato Canova

my friend thanks for answering my question concerning Ryan Hall! Have you gotten a chance to see his 1/2 marathon run on runnersworld.com or flocasts.com? I'm sure that if Ryan stays healthy he will have some strong performances in 2007!

How is Dorcus coming along is she better?

The question really is what does the HM mean for Ryan Hall?

We know that he is not looking at the 10k anymore as much as the marathon, and others are posting good reasons why this is so. Sure, he could do wonderfully in the 10k and will set the AR, but on the big stage he is not going to beat Bekele, Kemboi, Negera, Kogo, Tadesse, Hassan, Sihine, Kiprop, Wanjiru, and a bunch of other guys who are well under 27:00 and will outkick him.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but, all these 10k stars you mentioned will be moving up to the marathon eventually and there are already plenty of guys running marathons NOW that Hall won't beat.

1. Tergat

2. Geb

3. top 20% of kenyan runners

4. top 10% of Ethiopian runners

5. top 15% of the rest of the east african countries

6. full trained Meb