The women's race this year will see high point totals. No one is going under 50, the winner might score 100. It's a very even field and more than most years the championship will be decided at 3-4-5. Teams 4-12 are all too close to call, but I made an educated guess.
1) Ship - Obviously, this is a debatable ranking. They put 6 under 23 at Paul Short, and added Reis @ Mack Cooper. They have 7 girls who could be top 30 at the PSAC meet. They have a low stick in Norton and a pack of 6+ runners after that.
2) Edinboro - They have been number 1 in the region all year and the Jones, Ahrens, Hosl combo is the best 1-2-3 punch in the conference. After that its a gap to Maffett and Sullivan and they haven't shown anything after 5 all year. Unless they are hiding someone, they don't have any depth. If Maffett and Sullivan are in with the Ship 3-6, they can win based on the gap they will create at 1-2-3.
3) Bloomsburg - Lehman and Dodds are both low sticks, and there is enough at 3-4-5 to challenge the top 2 teams on a great day. Right now they look like they will give up too many points at 4-5 to move to the top of the conference. The good news for Bloom is, it looks like there is a little gap back to the rest of the conference.
4) Slippery Rock - Powis has yet to round into the form I expected, leaving Picot as the lone front runner. I didn't see Dombi in the Mack Cooper results after she ran well at Salisbury. If SRU is healthy and runs as well on the flat course at Mansfield as they did in Salisbury; I see them as the 4th best team in the conference.
5) Seton Hill - They go 3 deep with potential all PSAC girls and need to pull something together at 4-5 to move up. Since joining the PSAC this team has done enough for me to believe they are one of the top 5 women's programs in the conference.
6) Lock Haven - Wirth, Capper, and Arnold were significantly better at Mack Cooper than they were at Paul Short. The team produced a 50 second 1-5 spread @ Cooper after a 71 second 1-5 spread at Paul Short. This team could easily jump up to 4th, which would be a tremendous improvement for the program.
7) IUP - This group ran well at Louisville, and followed it up with a B team last weekend. The are lead by Magliane and will have a pack of 4-5 girls probably hoping to be in the top 40, but realistically looking at 50-60. I don't think they've shown their ceiling yet this year.
8) Mansfield - This team is a long way from last years championship, but hasn't fallen out of the top 10. I think Foster and Parks are a solid 1-2, with Foster an all PSAC athlete. After that they have a respectable 3-6 that will sway the race for them. Mansfield proved last year they know when and how to have a good day and I think that keeps them in the top 10 this year.
9) West Chester - Eisman is a contender for a nationals trip. The issue here is the minute gap from 1-2 and the minute gape from 2-3. That's just too much to overcome at the PSAC meet. 2 minutes from 1-3 is fine if the #1 is Neely Spence or Brenae Edwards. I just don't see the 4-5 on this team staying in the top 60.
10) Cal - Friend is probably the favorite for the individual win right now. then they have big gaps to the rest of the group. The issue here is the 5. The 3-4 are probably top 60 girls, but the 5 will need to have a good day to be top 80 and that will hurt.
11) ESU - Decker ran great at Paul Short, 21:51. The gap is 80 seconds to the number 2 runner. The 2-5 gap is an additional 80 seconds. Maybe Paul Short was a bad day, but I didn't see a significantly better result on the season. If ESU can get Conover some company, they can move into the top 10 @ PSACs.
12) Kutztown - Manela looks like an all-PSAC runner in the 1 spot, and the 2 should be in the top 40 and thinking higher. the 3-4-5-6 just seems too far back to move into the top 10. That group needs to be with Fergus and not letting her move away in the 3 spot.
13) Millersville - Cruz will be in the front group, there is one other top 50 girl, and their might not be anyone else who runs under 24:30. Cruz makes them better than anyone behind them, but I don't see how they finish higher than 13th.
14) Mercyhurst - 6 underclassmen in the top 8, 5 of those are freshmen. If they can develop and recruit this team could be on the rise in the coming years. Right now they aren't good enough to finish higher than 14th.
15) Gannon - This group hasn't been able to beat Mercyhurst in any of their matchups this year. It doesn't look like it will happen in 2014. Budjos will be hoping for a great day and all-PSAC honors to be the team bright spot, but she will need to be better than she has been so far this year.
16) Pitt Johnstonwn - They have a 1-2 that can finish in the top 80 of this race. After that there isn't much to see, but the 1-2 are enough to slot them ahead of Clarion.
17) Clarion - Based on current results, anyone in the top 100 would be having a good day.
18) Cheyney - see Cheyney men.
Individually it will be a tight race, right now I think Friend is the favorite. I see a pack of 7-8 trying to give chase and wouldn't be surprised to see any of them emerge in the 2 spot. The battle for the nationals spots is Friend, Cruz, Eisman, Picot, and Decker.