DoubleJ wrote:
Wisconsin is probably number 1, if nothing else, by default. If they end up winning this year, it will be a lot closer, but I'm not convinced there is any team strong enough to beat them. CU is solid, but they won't have enough firepower up front (unless Vaughn makes a lot of progress in the next five weeks). Arkansas is hard to figure. UTEP seems to fizzle. Maybe Iona will surprise, who knows...Considering Harkrader and Vaughn haven't really raced CC in almost two years, I look for them to shake off the race rust and fortify the Buffs, but I don't think it will be enough against the likes of Solinsky and Withrow-both of whom should be top 5.
CU: 10, 14, 18, 28, 36, (40), (62)=106
Wis: 1, 5, 13, 20, 35, (44), (75)=84
The scoring forecast here is interesting. It predicts that the top 5 returning runners from last year will score 2 point MORE than last year. Last year they had
[1] 3, 7, [10], 14, 15, 43
Taking our the two in the [.] who graduated the score would be 82. However, you have an addition error and the forecast totals 74, not 84. My guess is that Nelson does better than last year (i.e., less than 14) and so does Wagner (a little lower than 35). Withrow might win the thing for all we know, but it is just too unsure to give him lower than 5 until Big Tens. Given these two adjustments we would get
Wis: 1, 5, 13, 14, 33, (44), (75)=66[/quote]
Finally, if you just take out the departing seniors and place everyone the same the scoring is 1,4,9,10,28 = 52. I realize that this will not happen, but it gives a good reference starting point, and while some good runners will return, the UW runners might also get better.
By the way, last year on a LetsRun thread I guessed that if everything went right Wisco would score about 34 or 35 points.