Better bet over next 5 years: Hedengren or Valby?

Hedengren ran a 9:17 solo in hot and windy conditions at age 18. As impressive as the time is, the record understates how impressive of a performance it was. She’s on another level, in my opinion.

Another vote for Jane. The main factor making this closer is you'd be getting Parker in her most likely best years (age 22-26) and Jane age 18-22.

Jane is great, but Parker has more upside as she ran faster times while blowing kisses in every lap. If you let her run free everyday on arc trainer while watching TikTok, she will be smashing world records in two years.

they most certainly do.

I'll go with Hedengren.

She is running these astounding hs times mostly as solo efforts.

Although injured in hs, she looks like a healthy athletic female pro at this point. The 58 2:05 4:23 speed is very promising.

She has a really comfortable parent/coach/college/family/altitude setup to work with at BYU, so a lot of headaches and guesswork won't be necessary; college or pro.

Like every phenom, it will mostly be about health. Then continuing to improve from 19-26.

Good luck to her!

I like Valby too. Her 10k to half marathon could still end up pretty special. Valby impressed me by pretty much always showing up and running well in big meets, few bad races.

Better bet to medal is obvious. Mile speed matters... you can have all the endurance but you won't medal

Good analysis, I agree with pretty much everything. Nice note on Hedengren already living at altitude, can't wait to see what Valby does after a year at altitude.

The only thing I'll note is that Hedengren as a high school senior seems about as good as Valby was as a college senior (and now). Hedengren could plateau right now and still win NCAAs several times and have a decent shot at making teams (I think she's almost surely in sub-4:20/14:45 shape). She's also going to one of the best schools for developing athletes, which has also recently become a funnel directly to a Nike pro team with the same coach in the same location. I think I'd pick Hedengren over Valby, although that might just be tainted by whatever tf is going on with New Balance Boston right now. If Valby was healthy training with 3:55 gals and an indoor world champ every day, I might feel different lol

When is this year at altitude coming? She was in Boston and is now in Florida. I guess she is planning to go to altitude camp this summer, but is there a plan for her to base herself at altitude for most of the year? I would be great if she did, but I am not certain it will happen.

Hedengren and it isn't close.

It remains to be seen what her best event is, but she's the most exciting HS prospect of at least the last decade.

Already national class from 1500-5000m. 5k/10k could be the sweet spot for her, but if she has the marathon gene then the sky's the limit.

Alternatively, if she can develop her closing speed, she could be a medal threat on the track in 2028.

Valby is incredible, but you're comparing her to an 18-year old who she will likely never beat.

The thing about Valby is that her ceiling seems like competing for national titles at 5k and more likely 10k. But right now, the best American 10k women are literally a lap or more behind the best in the world in an all out race. They can linger in a tactical race, until it gets serious. Unlike Fisher in the 10k, the American women are no threat to the world's best. GST has made that painfully obvious. As everyone has pointed out, a linear and successful transition from high school to college to the pros is far from guaranteed for young women, but you could at least see a path to Hedengren being truly competitive on the world stage, at least in the vein of a Battocletti. The idea that Valby would someday give a scare to someone like Chebet or Ngetich strikes me as far fetched. But if all goes well (admittedly, a very big "if"), I could see Hedengren in the mix with 200 to go at a world champs or Olympic final some day.

Valby is a truly great runner. Her record speaks for itself.

That said, no one wants to be compared to Hedengren right now. She is absurdly fast. Assuming she remains free of injury, she will probably be too good for NCAA competition in two years. College is a great experience but she may leave early.

While Jane might have more potential, how many high school phenoms have we seen flame out? She's been training like a pro for so long, there's a solid chance she loses her love for the sport. Parker's complete detachment (does she even like running?) may actually work in her favor

is Hendengren vs Valby the new Valby vs Tuhoy

As always, improving her fitness will be how she can she can improve her race finishes. The genes for the 5/10 and marathon, are one and the same.

You are trying to stir up controversy rather than congratulate each. People like you are the ones with low self-esteem and this is the only way you can grab attention. Big time loser you are.

It's a running message board and it's a question that is basically asking which of these two runners has more upside over the next 5 years. It's a total legitimate topic of discussion related to the sport.

I vote for the one who hasn't quit running and given no timeline for her return.

Yes. It is the type of topic that should be diclscussed here. I vote Jane 1500/3k amd.Parker 5k/10k.