I am dumbfounded by the idea that there are people like you who think Yared and Hocker are suddenly way faster at 800. You act like them running basically 1:45 flat is shocking. Are you crazy? Do you really think they are running 3:27 without 1:45 speed? You think a 1:46 guy is doing that?
No.
I've seen nothing to indicate they are getting faster. They just had never run a quality 800 before.
And in fact. I just called up John Kellogg - who knows nothing of the GST 800 (he likes to follow HS track and only follows the pros if I make him) - and asked him what he thought Hocker and Nuguse could run for 800. He said, "145 - maybe 1:44 if they really worked at it, heck maybe 1:43 high. Definitely 1:45."
Then I replied, "What about Jakob?" He replied: 1:44-1:45.
I then told him about the results and the only thing that surprised him was that Yared beat Hocker. He was a little surprised he broke 1:45.
The amount of threads and individual posts one could find over the last 24 months claiming that Jakob is slow over 800m and might be a "1.45.5 guy at best" would both laughable and embarrassing to those involved.
Yared probably has a few more tenths in him given the time of the season and the fact he raced a good 1500 a day earlier. But he ran a really good race in Miami but he taps out in the 1.44.4/5 range.
Hocker definitely has better anaerobic power than Nuguse and I agree it was a surprise that he's been beaten by Nuguse twice so far though he doesn't really seem overly engaged/motivated by all this to be honest. Definitely seems like he's in "I just want to get through these using as little energy as possible" mode. Last season he ran 1.45.6 in Portland on a chilly and really windy night, navigating 2/3 of the field in the final 120 with ease. He's a few steps ahead of Nuguse at his best in the low 1.44's
Jakob I would imagine is almost identical to Nuguse in terms of 2 lap potential. So why can he run 3.26.73 and Yared 3.27.80? Look at the 3000m times (even factoring in that Nuguse is most probably a 7.22/3 guy like Hocker is).
Since we are here, what was El G? MUCH faster that what we are talking about above.
El G was doped to insane levels just like most Africans of that era. That’s why it’s taken decades for athletes to just about catch up.
Perhaps, but Jakob will only race the mile once, at Pre Classic. He simply doesn't care about this distance/record. He calls it the "1609 meters"...3:25.99 is so much more prestigious anyway.
See I would slightly disagree. I don't think there is a time barrier on the horizon that really matters big picture. 4min and 3.50 were obviously huge marks for the mile and 3.30 was a huge mark in the 1500. But 3.40 and 3.20 probably aren't happening in our lifetimes - especially the latter. I don't think a time under 3.26.0 holds any extra prestige other than it being a WR (is it - or would that be any time under 3.26.12? wink wink)
I've always been surprised that Jakob doesn't think the mile is more prestigious. It's his opinion and if he wants the 1500m more then that's totally his prerogative. It's not that the 1500m doesn't have history because it does. But the mile really has history. Even as recent as Coe/Ovett/Cram the mile was the more important record to have. I mean the country where he is from basically built one of the most legendary meets on the planet around the mile distance. When you look across some of the other big meets in history we have the Emsley Carr mile, the Bowerman mile - as far as I know there is no legendary or historical 1500m race anyone really wants to win.
I think it's fine he wants to target the 1500 but I would never understand it if he finished his career without breaking the mile record simply because he only gave himself one race a season to do it. That would be an epic mistake - especially if he doesn't break the 1500 which is no given/guarantee at all.
Jakob was born in 2000, this history is less vivid in his mind than yours (or mine). He has also stated as recently as World Indoors, that he isn't walking in the footsteps of any of the greats before him. Also, the 1500m is run far more frequently than the mile, which makes the 1500m WR even more elusive and more appealing for Jakob to break.
But to the main question, does Jakob want to break the mile record? YES! Absolutely, because it is a record to be broken.
I believe Komen is now with Asics, not positive though. I don't know any upcoming racing plans but don't think he's raced yet this year
I'm really curious how Wightman goes here after his problems in the winter. Would be great if he can have a healthy rest of the season
There's been a big rumour in Kenya this winter that he has been suspended for whereabouts. Can't confirm it is true, but personally I do trust the source. Also, given the mess the ADAK is in with the current suspended athletes it wouldn't surprise me if it is true but not made public.
Also, I didn't know he might now be with Asics. Surprising he didn't go to the Tokyo event las week if that is the case.
I could see that being also true. Also surprising he didn't seem to do the Police XC champs 2k. Though I don't think Reynold Cheruiyot did either. Maybe he does Rabat (I don't think Kip Keino has a men's 1500 this year) but if not...idk the rumour could be true, hopefully he'll show up soon
This race could be legendary, even without Kerr. Kessler, Laros, and Myers might hit 3:44–3:46. Wightman’s a wild card. Goose and Hocker are gaining 800m speed don’t be surprised if they push Jakob. El G’s mile record? It might not make it through the summer.
Can I get in on that action too? I love Fisher and I could see him getting pulled along to a fast time (3:46 at the absolute outside, but 3:47-48 is much more realistic) in a perfectly paced race, but actually contending for the win against Jakob, et al? -- not a chance.
I want to believe Fisher can run 3:46 high or faster if he’s coming down strong from long training block at altitude. More realistic is 3:48 range but why not
To be honest, I would skip all 4 GSTs to watch this Bowerman mile, full of today's best milers. Sorry about that!
Full of Jakob and the best American milers looking for appearance fees during final preparations for the US Championships. If it's a good race it will be the exception for Prefontaine.
I would skip Bowerman to watch world championships. But thankfully I can watch GST, Bowerman, AND Worlds. And all without a Flotrack subscription.
To be honest, I would skip all 4 GSTs to watch this Bowerman mile, full of today's best milers. Sorry about that!
Full of Jakob and the best American milers looking for appearance fees during final preparations for the US Championships. If it's a good race it will be the exception for Prefontaine.
I would skip Bowerman to watch world championships. But thankfully I can watch GST, Bowerman, AND Worlds. And all without a Flotrack subscription.
I just ranked them the same as you. I agree with you.
BTW for those who were curious about Olympic finalist Brian Komen, who was not among the Prefontaine entries, his agent said he was rehabbing a hamstring injury this winter but will return to action in the 1500 at the Rabat Diamond League on May 25.
BTW for those who were curious about Olympic finalist Brian Komen, who was not among the Prefontaine entries, his agent said he was rehabbing a hamstring injury this winter but will return to action in the 1500 at the Rabat Diamond League on May 25.
Thank you, Jon! That is good news, and I'm imagining that race will be a who's who of Kenyans. Also shout out to Will on the sponsor switch to Asics, that helps explain the lack of Pre Classic participation.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Why do you / Rojo edit my post? And are you sure you read this correctly? Where do I say I belive Fisher will win this, I gave two conditions that had to be in place before I said he could be in position. Two pretty open condidtions. The whole point is my lack of confidence in Hocker and Nuguse will be in position to win. They will probably have better odds at world later this year.
BTW for those who were curious about Olympic finalist Brian Komen, who was not among the Prefontaine entries, his agent said he was rehabbing a hamstring injury this winter but will return to action in the 1500 at the Rabat Diamond League on May 25.
I wonder how Kessler will do - I always wondered what would've happened if he didn't drop out there. I'm also excited for Laros since he's an amazing runner and he's only 20. I could see Fisher going sub - 3:50 but he definitely won't be there going for the win. I'd like to see Timmy C as well but maybe that's asking too much for an already loaded field. I predict Jakob FTW in 3:43 flat.
BTW for those who were curious about Olympic finalist Brian Komen, who was not among the Prefontaine entries, his agent said he was rehabbing a hamstring injury this winter but will return to action in the 1500 at the Rabat Diamond League on May 25.
I'm fairly confident any human who has ever run 3:27 for 1500m (let alone 3:26 like Jakob) has been able to run 1:44 for 800 meters when they were in 3:27 shape. Not sure how concerned Jakob will be after seeing Nuguse run 1:44.77 at GST and Hocker fail to break 1:45.
I do think Jakob will try for the WR in this race if conditions are right. And we've already seen Nuguse draft off Jakob and run 3:43 on this track before, so I wouldn't be shocked if he did the same again in July...
save me from saying it.
i can see 141 low.
the perfect race is worth an extra 2 seconds over the very good race.
Perhaps, but Jakob will only race the mile once, at Pre Classic. He simply doesn't care about this distance/record. He calls it the "1609 meters"...3:25.99 is so much more prestigious anyway.
See I would slightly disagree. I don't think there is a time barrier on the horizon that really matters big picture. 4min and 3.50 were obviously huge marks for the mile and 3.30 was a huge mark in the 1500. But 3.40 and 3.20 probably aren't happening in our lifetimes - especially the latter. I don't think a time under 3.26.0 holds any extra prestige other than it being a WR (is it - or would that be any time under 3.26.12? wink wink)
I've always been surprised that Jakob doesn't think the mile is more prestigious. It's his opinion and if he wants the 1500m more then that's totally his prerogative. It's not that the 1500m doesn't have history because it does. But the mile really has history. Even as recent as Coe/Ovett/Cram the mile was the more important record to have. I mean the country where he is from basically built one of the most legendary meets on the planet around the mile distance. When you look across some of the other big meets in history we have the Emsley Carr mile, the Bowerman mile - as far as I know there is no legendary or historical 1500m race anyone really wants to win.
I think it's fine he wants to target the 1500 but I would never understand it if he finished his career without breaking the mile record simply because he only gave himself one race a season to do it. That would be an epic mistake - especially if he doesn't break the 1500 which is no given/guarantee at all.
The mile isnt as prestigious as you think outside of the US