Sprints: Wayde Van Niekerk
No question.
- Event-transcending WR and Olympic win in 2016, at 24 years of age (43.03, looking likely to be still standing a decade later).
- Borderline career-ending knee injury in 2017. Still made it back to a very elite 44.08 in 2023, just as he turned 32 years of age.
- His injury was so catastrophic that he had no marks at all in 2018-2019, and his first race back was a 47-point in 2020. The fact that he got back to an elite career reflects how much he could have done without injury, two years of rehab and a long comeback.
Distance: Tossup between Samuel Wanjiru and Kelvin Kiptum (RIP).
I would say that Kiptum and more upside yet to be seen, and notably could have been the first man under 2:00:00 in an official marathon.
- Wanjiru died in 2011 at 24, having won the Olympics and multiple majors over the period 2007-2010.
- Kiptum died in 2024 at 24, having won two majors and broken a WR in 2023 after a 2:01:63 debut in Valencia 2022.