I don't really like these attempts at running fast times using setups that aren't legal for records. It will diminish the moment if someone eventually does it in a real race. Someone will likely run a record-eligible sub 2 hour marathon at some point, but it won't receive the same recognition. Casual fans will just be like, "wait didn't Kipchoge do that already?" Then you have to explain the details of eligibility rules and why one counts and the other doesn't, and that just kills the hype.
No, it doesn’t kill the hype and it’s not too complicated for normies to understand. The bigger factor is that there isn’t much hype to distance running at all amongst normies because they just don’t care much about it.
I would love Kipyegon to break four in a special exhibition event, but only if it's on a track. No downhills.
Unfortunately, even with a 3:49.04/4:07.64, I don't think she can do it. At 31 years Kipyegon isn't exactly getting younger. Maybe if she was in her early 20s with her current PBs she could get down to 3:45/4:04 in a standard Diamond League race, and maybe, just maybe, a 3:42/3:59 with a male pacer the whole way.
No, it doesn’t kill the hype and it’s not too complicated for normies to understand. The bigger factor is that there isn’t much hype to distance running at all amongst normies because they just don’t care much about it.
Agreed with this. Worth recalling that Breaking2 generated a ton of attention - I'd say the combo of Breaking2 plus someone eventually breaking it "legally" will generate more overall attention for the sport than if someone just broke it "legally" a decade from now or whatever.
Also, Breaking2 was a big deal even though Kipchoge "failed." If, as another poster predicted," Kipyegon ended up running 4:03 in an exhibition race, that would also be a big deal and generate a bunch of attention.
A substantial rumour out of Beaverton today is brewing that Kipyegon will be the star of a Nike Ineos/Breaking2 type scenario where male pacers will provide an environment for the first female sub4 mile. Further planning is of course subject to her performance over the next 8 weeks, but the event is loosely planned for late June/early July. Multiple venues are being considered, taking into account historically fast times at each specific location, weather at that point of the year (wind, etc), as well as the actual male pacers being organized for the attempt.
Note that Faith is opening her season at the China DL over 1000m.
A substantial rumour out of Beaverton today is brewing that Kipyegon will be the star of a Nike Ineos/Breaking2 type scenario where male pacers will provide an environment for the first female sub4 mile. Further planning is of course subject to her performance over the next 8 weeks, but the event is loosely planned for late June/early July. Multiple venues are being considered, taking into account historically fast times at each specific location, weather at that point of the year (wind, etc), as well as the actual male pacers being organized for the attempt.
Note that Faith is opening her season at the China DL over 1000m.
I actually hope this goes down. Because it's going to be yet another reality check in the male v female "realities of gender" debate.
I smile at the whole "male pacer" element, as if this is a game changer that will flip the switch on what would need to be a 3% improvement to go from 4.07.64 to 3.59.99. Surely we have seen enough evidence in the last 2-3 seasons that the most important element by far with respect to pacing isn't a physical body "breaking the wind" it's the speed which is being run and a consistent and unvarying speed from the opening meters of the pace - all which we now have with wavelight. And yeah, in a stadium absolutely hammered with wind a larger male body would definitely help - not sure I've seen Kipyegon out there battling awful winds running in Monaco, Paris, Zurich, Brussels etc etc at 9pm during the European summer.
In general not sure if the same gains are there to made over 1.609km of running vs 42.195km of running when it comes to pacing and slipstreaming. Can't wait to see this.
Edit: I forgot that Breaking2 also had multiple pacers in something like a flying V formation to give more coverage than a typical/record-legal race with pacemakers would have. So that's 3+ people. Still don't need top milers for that though.
If they do it at Franklin Field (UPenn), they can have half of the flying V running on the lanes inside the curb.
A substantial rumour out of Beaverton today is brewing that Kipyegon will be the star of a Nike Ineos/Breaking2 type scenario where male pacers will provide an environment for the first female sub4 mile. Further planning is of course subject to her performance over the next 8 weeks, but the event is loosely planned for late June/early July. Multiple venues are being considered, taking into account historically fast times at each specific location, weather at that point of the year (wind, etc), as well as the actual male pacers being organized for the attempt.
Note that Faith is opening her season at the China DL over 1000m.
It won’t be the women’s first sub-4 mile and if Kiplimo runs sub-2:00, he will be the first to do so.
I rather see Kipyegon shoot for 4:05 without using male pacers, than to run a race that doesn’t count.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
A substantial rumour out of Beaverton today is brewing that Kipyegon will be the star of a Nike Ineos/Breaking2 type scenario where male pacers will provide an environment for the first female sub4 mile. Further planning is of course subject to her performance over the next 8 weeks, but the event is loosely planned for late June/early July. Multiple venues are being considered, taking into account historically fast times at each specific location, weather at that point of the year (wind, etc), as well as the actual male pacers being organized for the attempt.
Note that Faith is opening her season at the China DL over 1000m.
I actually hope this goes down. Because it's going to be yet another reality check in the male v female "realities of gender" debate.
I smile at the whole "male pacer" element, as if this is a game changer that will flip the switch on what would need to be a 3% improvement to go from 4.07.64 to 3.59.99. Surely we have seen enough evidence in the last 2-3 seasons that the most important element by far with respect to pacing isn't a physical body "breaking the wind" it's the speed which is being run and a consistent and unvarying speed from the opening meters of the pace - all which we now have with wavelight. And yeah, in a stadium absolutely hammered with wind a larger male body would definitely help - not sure I've seen Kipyegon out there battling awful winds running in Monaco, Paris, Zurich, Brussels etc etc at 9pm during the European summer.
In general not sure if the same gains are there to made over 1.609km of running vs 42.195km of running when it comes to pacing and slipstreaming. Can't wait to see this.
Hope this happens as well. Maybe the other bodies around her for the entirety of the race will make a bit of difference?
A substantial rumour out of Beaverton today is brewing that Kipyegon will be the star of a Nike Ineos/Breaking2 type scenario where male pacers will provide an environment for the first female sub4 mile. Further planning is of course subject to her performance over the next 8 weeks, but the event is loosely planned for late June/early July. Multiple venues are being considered, taking into account historically fast times at each specific location, weather at that point of the year (wind, etc), as well as the actual male pacers being organized for the attempt.
Note that Faith is opening her season at the China DL over 1000m.
This seems made up.
I would agree that it does. You don’t know me, and there’s no way for you to believe what I’m saying. However, I can assure you that this is completely serious. I know they have already approached some pacemakers as well in addition to the previous info given yesterday.
Think about how Ngeny and Lagat both ran within .4 of the world record behind El Guerrouj. Lagat's best mile time, i.e. without El G, was 3:47, whereas he ran 3:26.34 1500m with El G. Ngeny ran 3:43 with him. Nuguse ran 3:43.97 behind Jakob. Kipyegon hasn't even gotten a pacer to take her even pace through 800m. Give her male pacers the whole way and she gets an extra second of drafting (2 more laps), two to three seconds faster in the first two laps when she's been held back by pacers, and she will run 4:03.
A substantial rumour out of Beaverton today is brewing that Kipyegon will be the star of a Nike Ineos/Breaking2 type scenario where male pacers will provide an environment for the first female sub4 mile. Further planning is of course subject to her performance over the next 8 weeks, but the event is loosely planned for late June/early July. Multiple venues are being considered, taking into account historically fast times at each specific location, weather at that point of the year (wind, etc), as well as the actual male pacers being organized for the attempt.
Note that Faith is opening her season at the China DL over 1000m.
It won’t be the women’s first sub-4 mile and if Kiplimo runs sub-2:00, he will be the first to do so.
I rather see Kipyegon shoot for 4:05 without using male pacers, than to run a race that doesn’t count.
I feel like if she needs to go at least 2:28-29 over 1k at this point to have a shot at <4:05 in July.
I would agree that it does. You don’t know me, and there’s no way for you to believe what I’m saying. However, I can assure you that this is completely serious. I know they have already approached some pacemakers as well in addition to the previous info given yesterday.
I absolutely believe this/you.
This is where Nike, despite finding a way to totally ruin their business over the last 3-4 years, has and will always be ahead of it's competitors when it comes to marketing ambition.
Easy to forget that 10-111 years ago, the sub 2 hour marathon was in general met with rolling eyes and scoffs. Kimetto had run 2.02.57 on the worlds fastest course in Berlin, with "BOOST" foam midsoled shoes and the concept and it had taken 16 years to take basically 3min off daCostas' 2.06.05. But Nike saw gains to be made in footwear, pacing and optimal racing surface. They also knew they had one of the alltime great distance running talents in Kipchoge who was really starting to hit his straps after moving to the marathon in 2013. So they invested in the Breaking 2 project and proved it could be done.
And they are always looking for moments like these and they need one. The timing and circumstances match up with 2016/17. Nike was losing market share to adidas because of the Ultraboost, slipping out of the forefront of peoples minds when it came to performance running (adi also had "held" the marathon WR since 2007 with Geb) and this changed that all. Same thing has happened now on a much bigger scale but its also no secret that Nike is full on investing back in the running category from EKINs, to product and activations, and something like this would be right on par with that strategy.
One thing Nike likes being is successful. The bones of the breaking 2 were there for a long time, they just wouldn't commit until they knew they had the athlete and it was possible. If Kipchoge had only run 2.02.30 at Monza they whole thing would have been perceived as a dramatic failure. I guess they would be really trying to see if this was possible with her. Like if you publicize this, put cash behind it, probably a new product etc etc and she goes out and runs 4.07.1 or maybe breaks the record by a second, it's cool - that would be I guess an "worlds best" performance - but that won't be good enough. I think running sub 4.04 would be seen as a pass, enough to show there was something in the idea/concept, but even that seems unlikely - that on it's own is a 1.4% drop. Not convinced a few male pacemakers are worth that much, christ.
I actually hope this goes down. Because it's going to be yet another reality check in the male v female "realities of gender" debate.
I smile at the whole "male pacer" element, as if this is a game changer that will flip the switch on what would need to be a 3% improvement to go from 4.07.64 to 3.59.99. Surely we have seen enough evidence in the last 2-3 seasons that the most important element by far with respect to pacing isn't a physical body "breaking the wind" it's the speed which is being run and a consistent and unvarying speed from the opening meters of the pace - all which we now have with wavelight. And yeah, in a stadium absolutely hammered with wind a larger male body would definitely help - not sure I've seen Kipyegon out there battling awful winds running in Monaco, Paris, Zurich, Brussels etc etc at 9pm during the European summer.
In general not sure if the same gains are there to made over 1.609km of running vs 42.195km of running when it comes to pacing and slipstreaming. Can't wait to see this.
Hope this happens as well. Maybe the other bodies around her for the entirety of the race will make a bit of difference?
I mean it sometimes goes both ways though.
Some people will point to drafting etc - but this is running at like 15mph right? I don't know how much aerodynamic slipstream effect there is for 1609m of running at that speed when you are presumably looking at running in perfect conditions anyway.
On the other hand, sometimes a set of legs back-kicking away gleefully in front of you isn't that great when it comes to you just running freely. I always think of Rudisha in London 2012. Perfect weather and incentive, he got to go out unimpeded and set his own pace and rhythm, never had to worry about anyone in front of him slowing down, speeding up at any point. There is also a ton of value in that if you get the pace execution right which I would argue wavelight has already taken care of.
A substantial rumour out of Beaverton today is brewing that Kipyegon will be the star of a Nike Ineos/Breaking2 type scenario where male pacers will provide an environment for the first female sub4 mile. Further planning is of course subject to her performance over the next 8 weeks, but the event is loosely planned for late June/early July. Multiple venues are being considered, taking into account historically fast times at each specific location, weather at that point of the year (wind, etc), as well as the actual male pacers being organized for the attempt.
Note that Faith is opening her season at the China DL over 1000m.
I actually hope this goes down. Because it's going to be yet another reality check in the male v female "realities of gender" debate.
I smile at the whole "male pacer" element, as if this is a game changer that will flip the switch on what would need to be a 3% improvement to go from 4.07.64 to 3.59.99. Surely we have seen enough evidence in the last 2-3 seasons that the most important element by far with respect to pacing isn't a physical body "breaking the wind" it's the speed which is being run and a consistent and unvarying speed from the opening meters of the pace - all which we now have with wavelight. And yeah, in a stadium absolutely hammered with wind a larger male body would definitely help - not sure I've seen Kipyegon out there battling awful winds running in Monaco, Paris, Zurich, Brussels etc etc at 9pm during the European summer.
In general not sure if the same gains are there to made over 1.609km of running vs 42.195km of running when it comes to pacing and slipstreaming. Can't wait to see this.
3% is a lot!!!
It's 3:36 in a 2hr Marathon.
At least when the sub2 thing happened they were around 1% away.
Sub4 ain't happening before 2040. By the time we see a sub4, Men might be 3:40.
