Yeah I think the 1500 guys will be exposed a little without Jakob - unlikely any races go sub 3:30. With bad weather, probably unlikely they go sub 3:33.
Josh is such a baby whining about too many paced races just because that levels the playing field for Jakob so fittest guy wins (ie they can all have assistance breaking the wind for 2 laps).
But people thinking the 1500 guys are scared of the 800 guys kicks…you don’t understand the 1500.
I’m excited to tune into GST this weekend. But I expect the distance athletes to give a reasonably full effort during their races. It will be massively disappointing if we get full-fledged jogfests. The athletes are getting paid handsomely; they should give the fans full effort.
They have to go fast as the 1500 runners will be sitting ducks for Arop, Wanyoni, Hoppel and the 800 runners, they have to run 3:32 MINIMUM to shake off the speedsters.
Millrose was the equivalent of sub-3:30. Jakob surely helps, but aggressive pacing and wavelights matter more. This meet has neither of them, so I think people expecting Yared to bring his A-level Trials 3:30 form might be setting the sights too high. I think low-3:30s (3:32-3:34) with a fast last 800 is more likely.
"aggressive pacing" and wavelights don't matter more than having Jakob in a race when it comes to running sub 3:30. Unless by aggressive pacing you mean having Jakob lead.
Running sub 3:30 takes a tremendous effort and a ton of pain. To do that you need a lot of motivation - for Milrose there was a softish WR within reach (there were no wavelights). But overall, there is no bigger motivator in a race than someone in front of you - and for the last 3.5 years, that someone is Jakob. None of the current crop of milers (except Timmy C if you consider him in the current crop) has ever run sub 3:30 without having Jakob infront of them for the first 3+ laps.
That’s just a correlation. Correlation doesn’t equal causation. All the sub 3:30 races happen to have Jakob because he enters all the fast races. Last year’s Monaco 1500 would have been sub 3:30 without him.
In reply to Douglas Burke - Exactly, so the question becomes, who's going to push the pace? Who's going to be the sacrificial lamb and play Jakob's role? I think it's fair to say neither Hocker, Kerr or Nuguse have the strength to win it from the front, so it makes for a super interesting prisoner's dilemma situation.
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.
"aggressive pacing" and wavelights don't matter more than having Jakob in a race when it comes to running sub 3:30. Unless by aggressive pacing you mean having Jakob lead.
Running sub 3:30 takes a tremendous effort and a ton of pain. To do that you need a lot of motivation - for Milrose there was a softish WR within reach (there were no wavelights). But overall, there is no bigger motivator in a race than someone in front of you - and for the last 3.5 years, that someone is Jakob. None of the current crop of milers (except Timmy C if you consider him in the current crop) has ever run sub 3:30 without having Jakob infront of them for the first 3+ laps.
That’s just a correlation. Correlation doesn’t equal causation. All the sub 3:30 races happen to have Jakob because he enters all the fast races. Last year’s Monaco 1500 would have been sub 3:30 without him.
I disagree. Someone has to be willing to push the pace once the pacers drop off for a race to go under 3.30. That someone is always Jakob because he knows he's the strongest runner and thus it gives him the best chance of winning. You typically don't go to the front and push the pace just for the sake of it. Timmy C did it back in the day because he was the strongest. If Jakob wasn't in all those 1500 races which went under 3.30 then who pushes? I'm not saying there wouldn't be any, because we saw what Kerr did at Prefontaine last year, but there would certainly be fewer.
In reply to Douglas Burke - Exactly, so the question becomes, who's going to push the pace? Who's going to be the sacrificial lamb and play Jakob's role? I think it's fair to say neither Hocker, Kerr or Nuguse have the strength to win it from the front, so it makes for a super interesting prisoner's dilemma situation.
Wouldn’t shock me if Nuguse pushes a few of these under 3:30. He likes an honest pace and probably wants to avoid getting mowed down by Hocker in a slower race
That’s just a correlation. Correlation doesn’t equal causation. All the sub 3:30 races happen to have Jakob because he enters all the fast races. Last year’s Monaco 1500 would have been sub 3:30 without him.
I think Jakob makes the superfast races more likely to go sub-3:29 or even faster, but I’m with you. There are strong guys willing to go with the pace, but Jakob enters basically all the late-season DLs and then drives from the front. We gonna say Jakob really got Kerr to the 3:45 at Pre last year now too? Jakob probably cares about running fast the most, too. It’s telling that Yared/Kessler hit the record without him but with pacing to do it. Worth sub-3:30, that’s all I was saying.
Championship races that are messy and relatively slow are often more entertaining than time trial GP races where the top 4 athletes all get in line behind the pacers in their expected positions.
In reply to Douglas Burke - Exactly, so the question becomes, who's going to push the pace? Who's going to be the sacrificial lamb and play Jakob's role? I think it's fair to say neither Hocker, Kerr or Nuguse have the strength to win it from the front, so it makes for a super interesting prisoner's dilemma situation.
Wouldn’t shock me if Nuguse pushes a few of these under 3:30. He likes an honest pace and probably wants to avoid getting mowed down by Hocker in a slower race
Yep, I agree, Nuguse is the most likely guy to take the pace. But he's probably resigning himself to 3rd place at best if he does. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
That’s just a correlation. Correlation doesn’t equal causation. All the sub 3:30 races happen to have Jakob because he enters all the fast races. Last year’s Monaco 1500 would have been sub 3:30 without him.
I think Jakob makes the superfast races more likely to go sub-3:29 or even faster, but I’m with you. There are strong guys willing to go with the pace, but Jakob enters basically all the late-season DLs and then drives from the front. We gonna say Jakob really got Kerr to the 3:45 at Pre last year now too? Jakob probably cares about running fast the most, too. It’s telling that Yared/Kessler hit the record without him but with pacing to do it. Worth sub-3:30, that’s all I was saying.
I grant that Josh's mile at the Pre was super impressive considering how far out he took the lead from. Although, honestly, I don't think he would have run it that fast if Jakob wasn't in the field. That's picking knits though, it's a valid counter example.
But let's not kid ourselves, for the most part, the reason these races are fast is Jakob. I mean Josh's two best times were against Jakob in championship races.
Nuguse, Kessler, and Hocker's PBs are also vs Jakob in the Olympics. Cole's only other sub 3:30 was chasing Jakob in Lausanne.
Wightman's only sub 3:30 was vs Jakob in a world final.
I'm not knocking any of these guys, but to say running 3:30s has more to do with wavelights than Jakob pushing on the gas is silly.
None of them are going to front run a 3:30 without pacers.
But also it doesn’t matter the pace, the 800 guys won’t outkick the 1500 guys in a 1500. It could go 3:50, but Hoppel isnt beating any of the big 3. People who don’t get this don’t understand the 1500.
I’m excited to tune into GST this weekend. But I expect the distance athletes to give a reasonably full effort during their races. It will be massively disappointing if we get full-fledged jogfests. The athletes are getting paid handsomely; they should give the fans full effort.
You are suggesting that a tactical race does not necessitate a reasonably full effort?
Mr. Merber,
A tactical race? Are you suggesting that a tactical race must be sit and kick? That is the mindset of ignorance. THERE ARE SEVERAL DIFFERENT TACTICS. Leading from the gun is a tactic. A huge mid race surge is a tactic. When an entire field all goes out slow and closes fast that is lazy and not a tactic. That is predictable and boring.
You are suggesting that a tactical race does not necessitate a reasonably full effort?
There are no championships/medals on the line. If we get 10 laps of jogging in the 5000m, yes, that would not be a reasonably full effort.
Would you watch a football game where the teams trade off QB kneels for the first three-and-a-half quarters? I know I wouldn’t. Let’s see some real effort.
Crickets. Especially the distance races. Sub 8 sub 14 barely. I bet you dont see sub 745 sub 1320. I say 750. 1330
I’m excited to tune into GST this weekend. But I expect the distance athletes to give a reasonably full effort during their races. It will be massively disappointing if we get full-fledged jogfests. The athletes are getting paid handsomely; they should give the fans full effort.
They have to go fast as the 1500 runners will be sitting ducks for Arop, Wanyoni, Hoppel and the 800 runners, they have to run 3:32 MINIMUM to shake off the speedsters.
I predict that 3:35 pace is enough so that the 800 m guys won't have much of a kick. We'll see when they race. Exciting!!
You are suggesting that a tactical race does not necessitate a reasonably full effort?
Mr. Merber,
A tactical race? Are you suggesting that a tactical race must be sit and kick? That is the mindset of ignorance. THERE ARE SEVERAL DIFFERENT TACTICS. Leading from the gun is a tactic. A huge mid race surge is a tactic. When an entire field all goes out slow and closes fast that is lazy and not a tactic. That is predictable and boring.
Especially since in those type of races usually only 2 guys have a real chance of winning. It’s always “exciting” watching 11 or so guys lose the race in the first 100 meters.
I wouldn't mind do it elimination mile style especially since the races will likely not be too fast. Eliminate one runner per lap for the 1500, one runner every 1250m in the 5k, one runner every 750m in the 3k.
A tactical race? Are you suggesting that a tactical race must be sit and kick? That is the mindset of ignorance. THERE ARE SEVERAL DIFFERENT TACTICS. Leading from the gun is a tactic. A huge mid race surge is a tactic. When an entire field all goes out slow and closes fast that is lazy and not a tactic. That is predictable and boring.
Nah. Predictable and boring is watching a bunch of dudes run single file lap after lap at an unvarying pace behind pacers. Snooze fest! 😴
Gimme surges that can come at any time. Gimme guys jockeying for position. Gimme true RACING. Gimme Grand Slam Track!!! 🤩
I wouldn't mind do it elimination mile style especially since the races will likely not be too fast. Eliminate one runner per lap for the 1500, one runner every 1250m in the 5k, one runner every 750m in the 3k.
Elimination races would certainly be more exciting to watch than jogfests.
If the distance athletes are going to jog, I will turn off the meet. I know plenty of others will too.
That’s just a correlation. Correlation doesn’t equal causation. All the sub 3:30 races happen to have Jakob because he enters all the fast races. Last year’s Monaco 1500 would have been sub 3:30 without him.
I think Jakob makes the superfast races more likely to go sub-3:29 or even faster, but I’m with you. There are strong guys willing to go with the pace, but Jakob enters basically all the late-season DLs and then drives from the front. We gonna say Jakob really got Kerr to the 3:45 at Pre last year now too? Jakob probably cares about running fast the most, too. It’s telling that Yared/Kessler hit the record without him but with pacing to do it. Worth sub-3:30, that’s all I was saying.
For real. People act as if nobody ran sub 3:30 before Jakob arrived on the scene. They are mistaken. There were plenty of sub 3:30 races long before Jakob’s arrival and there will be plenty of sub 3:30 races long after he retires.
You are suggesting that a tactical race does not necessitate a reasonably full effort?
There are no championships/medals on the line. If we get 10 laps of jogging in the 5000m, yes, that would not be a reasonably full effort.
Would you watch a football game where the teams trade off QB kneels for the first three-and-a-half quarters? I know I wouldn’t. Let’s see some real effort.
This is such a ridiculous take that I think we need to call it out.
You say "there are no championship/medals on the line"...but there is cash. You're speaking as if none of the athlete's on the track have any incentive to place which just isn't true.
Your point about the kneeling also, obviously, doesn't make sense. If one team just kneels repeatedly, they'd lose. The other team plays offense and wins. I know this is obvious, but it's not how tactics work and hopefully you're bright enough to understand that.
If it goes out slow and everyone waits until the bell, you are handing the race to one of a few athletes. You probably will see some slow starts, but I do think you'll also see a lot of early moves. I'm excited to see athletes finally get on the line to race.
I truly don't understand this forums distain for racing over paced and rabbited time trials.