It will be a long while before he loses. As I've said before, the most plausible scenario is him getting boxed in and tangled up. It's very hard to lose when you're simultaneously the fittest, strongest, and fastest guy in the field. His pure dominance at 5k is something we haven't seen in history except from like 2008 Bekele. Even Farah wasn't clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the field like Jakob is.
Yea this Mehary kid has a baby face he's definitely 17. When was the last time Ethiopia had an age cheating scandal? I was so sure back in 2012 Gebriwhet was not 17 running 12:47, the fact he's still running at a high level 13 years later proved me wrong, lets be honest that's a really long career.
Possibly Cole Hocker when he runs the 5000 in a championship.
Cole Hocker finished 7th in the 2024 US Olympic Trials 5000m, and that was with two full rest days after the prelim, and the 1500m was the prior week. There's really little evidence that he's got a ton of potential at 5000m.
I would not hold my breath waiting for someone to beat Jake at 3000. Could be a little while.
Not much easier at 5000m. I'm guessing it will be an African.
The intuitive feeling might be that he’s more invincible at 3k but I’m not sure if that’s true. You look at most of the names being floated in this thread—Hocker, Laros, Kessler, Strand—these are guys with tremendous talent and speed but not guys who have shown the promise of ever being near Jakob’s level at 5k, IMO. Add in Nuguse, Myers, and yes the oft-reviled Josh Kerr and it’s conceivable that someone pulls off the upset versus Jakob at 3k. They’re not likely to ever scare 7:17 but in an unpaced race or one with botched pacing where Jakob winds up doing a lot of the work, maybe one of these guys sticks with Jakob and slingshots past him in the stretch in the next couple of years. I mean, if we ever get a 3k that goes out in 5:05+ through 2k with Jakob trying to wind it up in the last K with Hocker, Nuguse or Kerr on his back—or maybe Myers or Laros in a couple years—we’ve got a very intriguing race.
Well, he will be tough to beat at either, and I do not expect it to happen anytime soon.
That said, I expect it will be at 5k and by an African runner. When? Who knows.
Yes, one of the Americans or Laros might get him in a relatively slow 3000, but I don't expect to see that this year. At 24/6mos, Ingebrigsten is in his prime.
Didn’t Fisher have the fastest close in the Olympic 5,000m final?
His position was bad with a lap to go, he even said so and also said his legs were dead from the 10,000m final. That tells me he underestimated himself even though he was severely tired. He was at a different level in Paris and he won two bronze medals.
His start to 2025 indicates he is at a different level then he was last year. If all works out well for him through the year I absolutely see him challenging and beating Jacob.
Everyone is beatable - everyone.
Has it occured to you that (3.5 years younger) Jakob also might be on a different level this season?
Didn’t Fisher have the fastest close in the Olympic 5,000m final?
His position was bad with a lap to go, he even said so and also said his legs were dead from the 10,000m final. That tells me he underestimated himself even though he was severely tired. He was at a different level in Paris and he won two bronze medals.
His start to 2025 indicates he is at a different level then he was last year. If all works out well for him through the year I absolutely see him challenging and beating Jacob.
Everyone is beatable - everyone.
Has it occured to you that (3.5 years younger) Jakob also might be on a different level this season?
Theres not much evidence Jakob is on a different level this year.
He ran an indoor mile record that he could have probably broken every year for the past 3 years. And he closed in a 3k in about what you would expect for a guy who closed his 7:17 in 2:22.
I can only think of Jacob (Kiplimo) possibly beating Jakob at 10.000. I think Jakob still has the edge in the 5.000, in the 10.000 is 50/50, longer distances is Jacob's territory. This is of course under the assumption that Kiplimo would get back to track and doesn't crumble under race pressure, whereas Jakob is used to racing, quite often, and I don't think race nerves would ever get him at this point.
Has it occured to you that (3.5 years younger) Jakob also might be on a different level this season?
Theres not much evidence Jakob is on a different level this year.
He ran an indoor mile record that he could have probably broken every year for the past 3 years. And he closed in a 3k in about what you would expect for a guy who closed his 7:17 in 2:22.
7:17 was run in peak shape in 2024. Do you think he was in 2025 peak shape in the Apeldoorn 3000m?
Also considering that he had run heat and final in the 1500m in the previous days.
If he is running times equal to his 7:17 already in February what will he run in the high season?
I feel like Jakob is more likely to not lose in the 5000 than the 3000. The shorter the events are, the bigger the chances of upsets since the margins of error are smaller and the variance is greater.
Cole Hocker will most likely never beat him in a 5000. Any of those guys in the 12:40 or better range can beat him on the right day, especially if they go into the 5000 finals fresh, and he is a bit worn from the 1500.
Too lazy to check exactly how many races in a row he has won in these two events but the win streak must be pretty big now.
He seems to be levels above the east africans - so much so that he made the 5000m WR holder in Cheptegei flee for the 10000m in the olympics. Aregawi gave him a scare but as good as he is he is inferior in all aspects to Jakob.
As for other westerners, there's always Nuguse, Hocker, Fisher, Kerr et al. but they always seem to duck him when the championship races come around. Fisher is quality and has certainly improved, but one can't forget that the last time he raced Jakob in the 3000 the latter broke the WR and the former finished DFL.
So what about the up and comers? Could Laros be the one? He's claimed a couple of Jakob's age records and recently ran 7:29, indicating sub-13 shape for the 5k (Jakob ran 13:02 at his fastest before turning 20).
Too lazy to check exactly how many races in a row he has won in these two events but the win streak must be pretty big now.
He seems to be levels above the east africans - so much so that he made the 5000m WR holder in Cheptegei flee for the 10000m in the olympics. Aregawi gave him a scare but as good as he is he is inferior in all aspects to Jakob.
As for other westerners, there's always Nuguse, Hocker, Fisher, Kerr et al. but they always seem to duck him when the championship races come around. Fisher is quality and has certainly improved, but one can't forget that the last time he raced Jakob in the 3000 the latter broke the WR and the former finished DFL.
So what about the up and comers? Could Laros be the one? He's claimed a couple of Jakob's age records and recently ran 7:29, indicating sub-13 shape for the 5k (Jakob ran 13:02 at his fastest before turning 20).
Yared will take him
Lolz. Yared hates the 5000, and he's nowhere near the 3000m runner that he is in the 1500/mile, whereas Jakob is way stronger at the 3000 and 5000 than he is in the 1500. Not gonna happen.