Sub 5 Mile: Tops in Human History?

Easily easily top 5%.

Probably no worse than top 2%.

When you're getting down this low, it's hard to say. My guess would be .02%. I think about 1 person in every 5,000 can run sub-5:00. You have to remember very few women can do it, and even most people who run every day cannot do it.

This may sound too low to some of you, but put in another context...

World population: 6,500,000,000 x .0002 = 1,300,000 people in the world running a sub-5:00 at a moment's notice.

Sounds really high now though.

if you put a gun to all of those people's head i bet at least a billion people would run under 5. Considering most porer people are in better shape endurance wise I think you might be underestimating. I think the watershed level is about 4:30. Break that and you're in the top million.

distance guy wrote:

World population: 6,500,000,000 x .0002 = 1,300,000 people in the world running a sub-5:00 at a moment's notice.

the OP didn't specify (unless i read too quickly) whether s/he meant capable of running now, capable of running at some point in life, or actually have run such a time.

the first would have to relatively low - eliminate just about anyone (note i'm not saying everyone in these categories) above 250 pounds, over the age of 60, under the age of 10, without adequate food, with significant disabilities, etc. i would guess that a large portion, perhaps 25-30% of the world's population is under 12. another 10-15% is probably over 60. just as a starting point.

the second is a much better measure of the significance of the accomplishment, if you ask me. and i would think this number is substantially higher. of course relatively few women make the cut, so that still wipes out 50%. after that though, i would guess that around 30% of all males worldwide would be able to run a 5 minute mile at some point in their lives. (so about 15% of worldwide population).

the third category is not much worse than the second for accuracy purposes, but it does exclude athletic people who have just never run 1609 meters as fast as they can/could have. with this definition of the category, i guess the percentage of males would drop to perhaps 10-15% (note that i'm assuming you needn't run the mile on a track or with an actual stopwatch - this sub-5 mile could have been run anywhere in any context), or 5-7.5% of overall worldwide population.

note that the above numbers are taken out of thin air.

Wow, you really have no idea, do you?

At my high school there were 1,100 students, plus probably 100 teachers, janitors, and various staff people.

For 3 of my 4 years of high school I was the only person who could run sub-5 for the mile. By my senior year one of my buddies broke 5 also.

That's 1 to 2 people per 1,200. And you really think 1 in 6.5 people could run that fast with a gun to their heads? I don't think so.

(By the way, you may be thinking that the soccer players, for example, were capable of running 5 minute miles but never got the chance. No way - the varsity standard for soccer was that you had to run 2 miles in 12 minutes. Only two guys ran that fast, and both were also on the track team and neither ran sub-5 for the mile).

In order an accurate count, I think you first have to ask "how many people in the world are runners?"

From there you have to ask "what percentage of runners can run under a 5:00/mile?"

You could argue that there are some freaks out there who don't run or that there are athletes that play other sports that could run sub 5:00. I would consider them "outliers" (too rare to be significant) when doing statistical inference. Even super athlete Lance Armstrong said he wished he could run a sub 5:00 minute mile.

I think the other poster's .02% is too high.

In America, if you consider that only 5% can run a mile AT ALL without stopping, we're already at 5%.

My high school had 500 graduating seniors. In that class, three of us on the track team could break 5:00, and one guy who ran cross country but played baseball in the spring could break 5 - doubtful that anyone else could have. That's 0.01%, and high school-aged kids usually haven't done anything too horrible to their bodies yet.

I'd say that's a pretty good indication of where the rest of the world is too, although I agree with the poster who said a larger percentage in some poorer countries may be able to do it.

It's still very hard to do. Sometimes we get the sense that everyone can do it, but that's because we've surrounded ourselves with people who can and who can go much faster even. Running a 6 minute mile is difficult even for must recreational runners.

just saying! wrote:

At my high school there were 1,100 students, plus probably 100 teachers, janitors, and various staff people.

For 3 of my 4 years of high school I was the only person who could run sub-5 for the mile.

My hometown had a population of 1100, and our high school produced one sub-5:00 guy about once every four years. I'd say 1 out of 5,000 isn't a bad estimate. That works out to 0.02%.

Flagpole Willy wrote:

It's still very hard to do. Sometimes we get the sense that everyone can do it, but that's because we've surrounded ourselves with people who can and who can go much faster even. Running a 6 minute mile is difficult even for must recreational runners.

Agreed.

I don't know the answer, but I do know that you have to take yourself out of the US or even Western mindset. With more than half or our population either obese or over weight you can't use a subset of the US population (your high school class) to make any inference on the world population. When you look at places like China, India, Africa and much of South America, the obesity level is much lower than the US probably less than 10%.

At work wrote:

I don't know the answer, but I do know that you have to take yourself out of the US or even Western mindset. With more than half or our population either obese or over weight you can't use a subset of the US population (your high school class) to make any inference on the world population. When you look at places like China, India, Africa and much of South America, the obesity level is much lower than the US probably less than 10%.

I would think high school is actually too HIGH a standard. How many high school kids play sports of some kind? Half? One third? Everyone still does gym class. None of the girls have put on weight yet. Most of the guys are still slim, so they probably have the best running physique that they will have for the rest of their lives. Many of them still haven't begun to drink yet.

I would say a high school is one of the more active, fit population groups you could select.

You really think poverty-stricken countries are going to have so many more fast runners than well-nourished American teenagers who play sports on a regular basis? I don't know about that.

good god dude where did you go to school?? right next to a little debbies factory outlet?

our local HS has just under 200 students

track team has 6 boys and one girl under 5:00

there are probably 10 to 12 baseball guys who could and another 2 or 3 field hockey/softball girls

the girls soccer coach was a D1 all american and could probably scare 5 if not get under

both mens XC and track coaches run under 17 for 5k so i would put them in there

basketball coach is also the PE teacher and runs sub 20 for 5k but has some good wheels so maybe

The answer is that 4,036,741 people out of a global population of 6,101,952,735 can break 5. This is .066% of the population of the planet. Said another way, one out of every 1512 people can do it.

I know this because I just took a poll.

You're saying there are twice as many baseball players who can break 5 as there are track athletes who can break 5? B.S.

Also, do you realize that every year there are only about 100-150 high school girls in the country who run a 5:00 mile or its equivalent? That's 2-3 per state, on average. Similar numbers to how many guys run 4:20 for the mile nationwide each year. You really think you have 2 or 3 field hockey/softball girls in your school who can do this? Get a clue, man.

Actually, Lou Siffer, why don't you tell me which state you live in. I'll check out last year's state meet results and tell you if your 2 or 3 field hockey girls could have been state champions or not.

At my high school, the most we had who could do it in any one year was 6. The school had 1500 students. A normal year was 3-4 kids breaking 5.

This isn't a question of who COULD run a 5:00 mile it's about who HAS run a 5:00 mile. I'm sure nearly anyone given the training could dip under 5:00 at some point in their life. I'm sure a lot of pro athletes in other sports could dip under 5:00, but unless they've run track then they haven't. So...you have to first take the # of people in the world who will run track in their life and then, which is already a small number, and go from there.

There are thousands and thousands of schools between California and New York. Most of the them don't have a 5:00 miler on their team. Also, I'm sure there are millions of schoolboys in Kenyan who could, if they ran track, run a 5:00 mile, but because of other concerns they haven't. A 5:00 mile is under 1% of the world's population.

Alan

One more thing FW,

Your statement:

"high school-aged kids usually haven't done anything too horrible to their bodies yet".

Here are some statistic for you.

from

http://www.mercola.com/2001/nov/7/childhood_obesity.htm

In the US, about 11% of children were obese and slightly more than 14% were overweight.

In comparison, 6% of kids in Russia were obese and 10% were overweight. In China, 3.6% of kids were obese and 3.4% were overweight.

from

www.obesity.org/subs/childhood/prevalence.shtml

About 15.5 percent of adolescents (ages 12 to 19) and 15.3 percent of children (ages 6 to 11) are obese. (This is for the US)

from

www.counselingcorner.net/disorders/obesity.html

Between 16 percent and 33 percent of children and adolescents are obese (This id for the US)

Runningart2004 wrote:

This isn't a question of who COULD run a 5:00 mile it's about who HAS run a 5:00 mile.

Exactly. It's like going to Antarctica. Anyone COULD go there if they wanted to, but so few people have actually ever been. Actually going there would put you in exclusive company.