From our WTW recap.
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"I don't think anything over 7:30 (for 3k) is fast."
A few years back, high school coach Sean Brosnan famously said that 4:20 (for a mile) isn't fast for a high schooler. And now after running 7:35.06 for 3000 at the NBIGP, American Hobbs Kessler said, "I don’t think anything over 7:30 (for 3k) is fast.”
The moment he said it our Jonathan Gault knew the comment would catch people's attention and it did as someone saw the interview on youtube and quickly started a messageboard thread shortly thereafter: Hobbs Kessler: “I don’t think anything over 7:30 (for 3k) is fast”.
What do I think? I love Hobbs comment. For someone of his accolades, accomplishments, and future goals, he's right, "7:30 isn't fast if you hoping to win Olympic 1500 gold."
Here are the 3000 pbs or converted 2 mile pbs for the 4 men who beat Hobbs Kessler in the Paris Olympics 1500 last year.
Cole Hocker - 7:29.56* *Converted from 8:05.70 2 mile
Jakob Ingebrigtsen - 7:17.55
Josh Kerr - 7:24.79* *Converted from 8:00.67 2 mile
Yared Nuguse - 7:28.23
I have little doubt all 4 could break 7:25 in peak fitness. 7:35 is a ways away from that so it's great that Kessler is disappointed.
Yes, Hobbs Kessler has better 800 speed than the guys who beat him in Paris, but given how the 1500 is being run these days, it won't matter if he's not strong enough to stay close when it comes time to kick.
A few weeks ago, on the Supporters Club podcast, I said that I thought American Nathan Green had better medal odds than Hobbs Kessler for LA 2028. To be honest, I'm not sure if I totally believe that. The main point I wanted to get across is I don't think Kessler's medal odds are very good. Green - who is 26 days younger than Kessler - was roughly at the same level as Kessler two years ago (Green finished right behind Kessler at USAs after winning the 1500 in the NCAA) and has never trained at altitude so it's possible he's upside is higher and it very well may take more than what we've seen from Kessler so far to medal in 2028.
5th at the Olympics for Kessler at age 21 is amazing but the problem is performance and results occur on a bell curve. The very best are outliers and have much more room for error. In Paris, Kessler finished 1.65 seconds away from the bronze medal, but he was much closer to 10th place (1.43 seconds behind him) than 3rd.
Do you really expect Kessler to beat Hocker, Kerr, Nuguse or Ingebrigtsen in 2028? It's not like they were old in 2024 as they were 23-26-25 and 23 in Paris. Ok, maybe you think Kerr will be too old? But there's still three guys you'd be foolish to bet against in a head-to-head versus Kessler for Paris 2028.
And then there are younger people rising up who so far appear to be bigger teen phenoms than Kessler was. Kessler lost to 18-year-old Aussie Cam Myers in Boston and 19-year old Dutchman Nils Laros was just one spot behind Kessler in Paris despite missing much of the year with injury.
And age isn't everything. If we were ranking the US milers right now in terms of current fitness on February 3rd, 2025, we'd have to rank Ethan Strand, who is a tiny bit older than Kessler (148 days to be exact), ahead of Kessler as Strand just ran 3:48.32 for the mile over the weekend (after running 7:30.15 for 3000 in December).
For fun, I decided to see if my hunch that even a young 5th placer at Worlds/Olympics doesn't often go on to a medal was correct or not. So I went back at looked at every World / Olympic 1500 final between 2005 and 2015 and determined if the 5th placer ever medalled after that in the 1500.
The table below shows only 1 of the 7 men who finished 5th - and all 7 of them were 26 or younger when they finished 5th- went on to earn a 1500 medal. 1/7 is 14.3%. Now the guy who medalled, Abddalaati Iguider, actually finished 5th twice in the table in both 2008 and 2011 (and then again in 2016) so if you want to say it really should be 2/8 then that would be 25%.
Video on this topic from a few podcasts ago: