Christian Allen who won the 2023 Speedgoat 50k ran a 2:10 marathon this morning

Sorry, as great as they are (and yes i was 2nd to Kilian in a number of races like The Rut and Pikes Peak but I saw him get beat by other guys in races where he faded and didn't win in an ultra-trail like Transvulcania or UROC), there is no evidence of anything that Kilian has done that he is even a sub 2:10 marathoner....let a lone a sub 2:05 marathoner. Same thing goes with Elhousine. They have both run 29:50 for 10km on the roads which is of course pretty good coming from mountain running, but that's more like my 10km PR and something that points to more like a 2:15-2:18 marathon.

Does that not mean that they can still beat Christian Allen (who actually is a 2:10 marathoner now) in a trail-mountain and/or ultramarathonr race? Of course not!

It would be flawed logic to think that: 1. Since Christian ran 2:10 and Kilian and/or Elhousine beat him in some mountain race (or ultra) that they are then also "sub 2:10 guys". No, of course not! It doesn't work like that. Now if Kilian or Elhousine went out and ran a certified 1:01 road half I'd of course change my tune....but I haven't seen any evidence of that.

What do I know about marathon racing and mountain-trail running though?

And if people thought Anton's time at Speedgoat was "fast" relative to these other "track and road guys" you'd have to know that the Speedgoat 50km course has changed significantly at least 3 times in the last 12 years. That course in 2013 and earlier was at least a mile shorter and went down the mountain at Snowbird a totally different way. The course in 2014 to about 2018-2019 is also different from the current course....so don't be comparing times at Speedgoat from over the years!

The correlation is pretty basic and obvious: The better your 5km/10km and marathon PRs, the better *generally* you do in longer races like ultramarathons. Just like it's *generally* better to always have a higher Vo2max.

Of course sometimes it comes down to specific Running Economy and musculature and not messing up with other things like nutrition/hydration/gear..... and so *sometimes* the 2:15 guy loses to the 2:28 guy (or the 2:07 guy loses to the 2:17 guy). But in general (on average) they are destroying the 2:35+ types.

Wrong. Nordic Skier.

No, he does not have plenty of speed background and was hardly a road guy. I've come across his name a decade-ish ago as an obscure guy even for a cross country skier (no notable national results) because I follow that sport. His athletic.net high school cross country profile is below. He won VT state cross championship, but it didn't take much to win that (beating 4:30ish guys), with no fast times (16:48 5K xc best), and it looks like he never ran track because his main sport was skiing through college.

athletic.net

David Sinclair - VT Cross Country Bio

David Sinclair - VT Cross Country results and photos on Athletic.net

Link:www.athletic.net/athlete/1599600/cross...

Looking at World Athletics, Athlinks, ARRS, and his Trials bio, he's finished 5? marathons in his life, plus a hobby jogged half marathon? So that's even 10 road races in his life? That's not a speed or road background. That's a skier/ski coach doing some long road races to see how good he is in his cross training sport.

Why even say the part about supershoes 💀

. . . so I think it's fair to say he's a pure mountain guy as his background is skiing and his strengths have been trail/mountain running and now also skimo.

I'd give him that because we are usually comparing with current runners using supershoes. Sage would have been a 2:14 guy. Walmsley also didn't have supershoes (the Hokas he wore were shown not to be in lab tests) and ran only one marathon in his life where he ran it as top 3 or bust (OT Trials), so not paced for a fast time. So it's fair to say that if he had a marathon career, he'd be more comparable to Ward and Fauble (both of whom he beat in college) than just 2:14.

Actually Joe Gray's success is vertical racing in sub ultra

why does Sage (in almost every one of his posts) need to mention his 2:16?

Maybe you change your tune as yes Elhousine ran a 28:53 in poor conditions beating a bunch of 1:00 half marathoners :) Look at it by yourself :

Also Kilian ran 29:59 but if you think it is his ceiling you are delusional. It is his only 10k so first ever try, he ran the first km on 28:00 pace, he was half injured, it was on a rainy day and he had no carbon plated shoes. Jakob ran 35 minutes that day and was not categorized as a 35’ 10k guy. Kilian might also be significantly better in longer events like the marathon as his mechanical speed is really bad.

It was relevant. Your post is not.

That does seem like a pretty good performance by Elhousine at 10km. From what I've seen it's not listed on his world athletics profile though....which only lists a 29:50 for 10km as a PB. So was that other race not even certified then?

Still until someone actually runs a 2:05 marathon though their marathon PR is what their marathon PR is. Otherwise it's just a game of total speculation and extrapolation. I haven't seen any results of him running a 1:02-1:01 half...and even if he beat a couple of guys that have run that kind of time half (in a "10km with bad conditions" no less) head to head that doesn't mean he is also suddenly a 1:01 half marathon guy. I once outkicked 3:51 miler Will Leer at the end of the Falmouth 7-miler. Does that mean I even have close to 4:00-min per mile potential? No...of course not! (at best I was a 4:15 miler in my prime). He had a bad race. An "n=1 story" is a horrible data point when it comes to trying to develop a strong correlation.

And to follow up with that "logic" just because someone runs a 1:01 half that doesn't mean they are automatically a 2:05 marathoner! Lots of guys in the US at Houston just ran 1:01 or faster in the half marathon.....how many have run sub 2:06? On the flipside it also doesn't follow (see the David Roche thread) that if you are a "great ultra-trail runner" that you are suddenly in sub 4-min mile shape or a sub 14-min 5km runner. It just doesn't work like that! The great thing about standardized roads and track events is that we can compare relative performances because we know the distances are accurate. The time doesn't lie and we know your exact PRs. We don't care about manual treadmill upload workouts or "who beat who head to head once."

Elhousine may be faster than I thought for sure at the 10km. I'll change my tune on that. But remember the Hayden Hawks of the world have also run 28-min high for 10km (way back in college). That is also worlds away from a 2:05 marathon.

David Sinclair ran a 2:16 marathon way back in 2017....we had quite dual at the 2018 Speedgoat a few months later. Sure he is a great skier and has a nordic background (and may be able to make the Olympics in skimo), but it's not like he wasn't a state champion in hs cross country (he was quite a runner as a teen already!) and his more recent success in ultra-running (especially in the last few years with CRs) has all happened years after that 2:16 marathon.

BUT the whole point of my post (and what reinforces the success of guys like David Sinclair and Jim Walmsley and Hayden Hawks and Elhousine but also Christian Allen at a variety of events) is that:

1. 5km/10km/Marathon times and fitness correlate very well with mountain-ultra-trail running fitness and success!

That's it! The guys winning big ultras and mountain races very often some legit track and road speed. Sure they are not always the very best/fastest (sample sample size), but many ran road and track first or at least went back and forth between the trails, tracks and roads.

how so? The point made was he mentions in it the majority of his post (this thread maybe relevant but all the others are not)

Why not just say that instead of finding ways to add in color commentary that makes your performances seem like the reason why you can speak on this topic. We know you won Speedgoat, we know you ran 2:16 without super shoes while with Hansons, we know youve raced Killian, Anton, Will Leer, Apple the Dog and Harrison Ford.

Why not highlight your coaching and educational background, which is far more relevant at this point instead of doing the Bruce Springsteen shtick with the glory days? The time for runners like Hawks, Sinclair and others is now and the performance of these athletes is not linear to road, track and trail.

Experience matters and Sage has it.

I'm a significantly less successful, but competitive, trail runner and everything Sage has said is accurate. I think some of this insight comes not just from coaching and learning, but also competing on these courses.

Heavily correlated is not the same as a direct one to one and that's what we've seen consistently over the year with ultra/trail. It's that simple.