3) These guys are all in the 59 minute range of fitness...
Sez who?
I meant their abilities at other race distances are better than Ryan Hall's (except for the marathon).
I think the fact that they are as good as him (or better) in the shorter distances will allow them to get the record. 59:30 in super-shoes is like 60:20 in old-school flats (4 seconds per mile).
With PRs like this, don't you think they should be able to run sub-60?
5000 m: 13:16.0
10,000 m: 28:07.9
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As much as I'm a fan of this generation of runners going after the record, I don't think it's going to happen either. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it does fall. But IMO peak Ryan Hall is a whole other beast. I don't think any American runners are currently at his level, not even close.
You don't think Grant Fisher is currently at his level?
So if my arithmetic is right, barely breaking the record means 28:18 for 10k, twice. And then the same pace for the remainder.
Not rhetorical, just curious: Who's in that shape?
Well, we all know a triathlete who can run 28:18, Alex Yee. There are women who can run in the 28s for 10km. Didn't a woman just run 63 minutes for the Half Marathon? They have to be able to beat her by 3 minutes over 13.1 miles!
If those triathletes and ladies can do that, our best guys should be able to put two similar 10kms together.
This is literally a record just waiting to be broken.
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So if my arithmetic is right, barely breaking the record means 28:18 for 10k, twice. And then the same pace for the remainder.
Not rhetorical, just curious: Who's in that shape?
Well, we all know a triathlete who can run 28:18, Alex Yee. There are women who can run in the 28s for 10km. Didn't a woman just run 63 minutes for the Half Marathon? They have to be able to beat her by 3 minutes over 13.1 miles!
If those triathletes and ladies can do that, our best guys should be able to put two similar 10kms together.
This is literally a record just waiting to be broken.
Yeah, I think Klecker gets this record. I'd say easily, but it's a rust buster. 59:36
Well I do think a temperature of 50 would be ideal, and I agree that 45-60 is pretty good, the temperature looks like it will be closer to 36 or so, and quite windy. This is not close to ideal. Hall’s record will survive the next week for sure.
I think Diego Estrada is a dark horse people are forgetting to mention even though he has the fastest PR. He ran 61.05 last year in Berlin as best non-Kenyan in very hot weather.
Would be great to see a non-sponsored athlete send the big brands and Klecker and Mantz fanboys home DEVASTATED.
Well, we all know a triathlete who can run 28:18, Alex Yee. There are women who can run in the 28s for 10km. Didn't a woman just run 63 minutes for the Half Marathon? They have to be able to beat her by 3 minutes over 13.1 miles!
If those triathletes and ladies can do that, our best guys should be able to put two similar 10kms together.
This is literally a record just waiting to be broken.
Yeah, I think Klecker gets this record. I'd say easily, but it's a rust buster. 59:36
People forget that Ryan Hall had some pretty good coaching. My understanding was that he had a long distance coach named God, and this kind of coaching can be quite inspiring. So I am not sure that Dathan or Ed or whoever, as good as they are, are really at that level.
Think of all those *clean sprinters at the trials and olympics, they get interviewed and it's like a broken record touting God. Isn't God about repenting your (steroid/doping) sins? Maybe it's just lack of vocabulary and they're subconsciously telling us more than they know they are.
As much as I'm a fan of this generation of runners going after the record, I don't think it's going to happen either. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it does fall. But IMO peak Ryan Hall is a whole other beast. I don't think any American runners are currently at his level, not even close.
You don't think Grant Fisher is currently at his level?
I meant current American half/full marathon runners. Grant hasn't moved up yet, but I can see him being as big a talent as Hall, if it works out that way.
Don't think the weather will be good enough. Miles 8.5-11 straight into a big headwind.
Agree here. They MIGHT have had a chance if Mantz and Klecker could have worked together to get through this section, but Mantz being dinged up I don't see any way they both come through mile 8 on pace and grouped up.
Klecker in 60:23, Mantz 60:58 is my prediction.
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Ryan Hall ran 59:43 without super shoes, which as Gault has written was a day the stars aligned for a guy who was super talented and trained super hard.
Call me a hater, a jaded, cynical curmudgeon, but I'm sick of hearing our top American men claim to be in sub 60, sub 2:07, whatever shape, then not deliver on race day.
I think this record is overdue to fall on Sunday, the weather looks good, I respect the work Mantz, Klecker, Bor, Pearson, Young put in, and I'm glad we're sending some big dogs to take a swing. But Ryan Hall was a bad MFer and I'm saying his record is still standing when the dust settles.
As always, out best runners don’t run the HM. I believe both Fisher and Nico Young are capable of a new AR.
So if my arithmetic is right, barely breaking the record means 28:18 for 10k, twice. And then the same pace for the remainder.
Not rhetorical, just curious: Who's in that shape?
Well, we all know a triathlete who can run 28:18, Alex Yee. There are women who can run in the 28s for 10km. Didn't a woman just run 63 minutes for the Half Marathon? They have to be able to beat her by 3 minutes over 13.1 miles!
If those triathletes and ladies can do that, our best guys should be able to put two similar 10kms together.
This is literally a record just waiting to be broken.
Everyone here was predicting Yee to run 27:xx. People here were predicting 2:04 or 2:05 for Mantz in Chicago. People here were predicting American women to run 2:18 in New York. None of it happened. No one American is running sub-60 on Sunday.