Jacob Kiplimo to debut at 2025 London Marathon - Predictions?

a 2:04 would be a great start, and folks acting like it's a bad thing..

As has already been noted, Sawe was a half marathon world champion, and defeated Kiplimo by running 58:05 only ~11 weeks before debuting in 2:02:05.

Kelvin Kiptum was “only” a 58:42 half guy before debuting in 2:01:53. Is 58:42 still good?

Samuel Wanjiru was a half marathon WR-holder (58:33 pre-super shoes) and had immediate success in the marathon, winning the Olympic gold within a year of his debut.

Patrick Makau was #2 all-time in the half at one point (behind only Wanjiru), and in his second and third marathons he won Rotterdam and Berlin respectively, and the following year he set the WR.

Wilson Kipsang was at one point #4 all-time in the half, and missed the marathon WR by just 4 seconds in his second year of marathoning; he later set the WR.

Neither Paul Tergat or Haile Gebrselassie totally crushed the marathon immediately, but both held the half marathon WR at a point and later set marathon WRs.

Yes, there are examples of guys who were never able to make the leap (Tadese being the big one—Kandie has run 2:04:48 and is still 28; Kamworor won NYC twice and eventually 2:04:23), but there is nothing close to compelling evidence that half marathon excellence precludes marathon success. In fact, there’s no better predictor of marathon success than half marathon excellence.

not unlike
Zersenay Tadese

My top four picks [not in order] are Mutiso, Esa, Kiplimo, and Tola

Yes, but I think we can agree that a 21 year old running 27:33 10K is NOT the same as a 15 year old running 27:26 10K!

First off, In the 9 years between that 10,000m and his Marathon debut he medaled at the Olympics and ran a PR of 26:44.36 in the 10K. So he was more than experienced enough to transition into the Marathon + he ran 1:00:30 in NYC Half a few years before with Mo Farah.

While I don't think Jacob Kiplimo will begin to take the Marathon serious in 2025. It'll definitely be his priority for the next Olympics. He will probably attempt the 10K/Marathon double.

24 is not a bad age to start when you've ran 7:26 3K/12:40 5K/26:33 10K/57:31 Half

I wish I shared you guy's pessimism but, I believe Jacob Kiplimo is fully capable of breaking 2 hours in the Marathon as is Sawe. We're talking about a running prodigy who broke 27:30 in the 10K at age 15 and was the youngest olympian in 2016 for Distance Running. He has displayed massive PRs over the years from 3000m-Half Marathon challenged only by Yomif Kejelcha and he's 3 years younger.

I predict Sub 2, if not 2025 then in 2026.

RIP Kelvin Kiptum.

Marathon running looks like a different sport when compared with running distances up to and including the half marathon.

Stating the obvious here, but a marathon is 21.1km further than a half marathon. That is a lot lot further!

I think he should have a strong showing, he recently ran 10k in Valencia in a rapid time (~26:30) alongside Aregawi so already has a phenomenal base of speed. I will always say London is not the fastest WMM course but the CR from Kiptum could be under threat. You also have to wonder if the new Vaporfly 4 which will be available by then will grant a bit more time as well.

I think fair to say this is more hyped than Cheptegei's debut because we've seen Kiplimo consistenly run great over a half., and I think great Sawe and co will be in London because it guarantees this won't be a solo effort from 15km in.

Well for someone to improve less than 53 seconds at 10000m after age 15 should be a huge red flag. If Jacob is 24 then he certainly hasn’t improved much from when he was a kid.

Barega is also debuting (not in this race but in February), so of this era we’re seeing nearly everyone take a crack at it minus Yomif

If Sebastian hit so well in Valenecia, I believe Jakob is a little bigger talent and better runner...

This thread has Kiplimo running somewhere between Tadase, 2:08, and 2:00. That should cover it.

I also think that having such a strong 2:04-ish field is a huge advantage here. Jacob would likely struggle is his first race here without the pack to work with, but that, I think, will be a real help. I hope that his coaches have really gotten it into him "just follow that pack for 18 miles, let them do the work." Do I think that he has the talent to stay and hang with 2:04 guys? Hell yes. But lets see how his energy systems do with the last 6-8 miles.

Kiplimo is a massive talent, we all know that, and it will be so interesting to watch him try to bring that into 26.2. Should be fascinating to watch. I could both see him dropping off between 18-22 miles or I could see him and Sawe banging it out down the Embankment in the final two miles for a classic tete et tete marathon battle. Which sprint finish would you go with between the two of them? Probably Kiplimo's.

But also note that improvement from youth to elite level is most often like an exponential curve: very fast improvement to just below world elite times, then world elite, then possibly WR. Very few people actually move the curve and break a WR.

Kiplimo has the Half WR, and it sure seems like he should go after Chep’s 10k WR before Kiplimo leaves track for good. Maybe Kiplimo will get excited to try it since it looks like Jakob will inevitably take the 5000 WR, probably this year.

I agree though that the marathon is a beast and challenge. Kiplimo may struggle with pacing as he’s used to running quite a bit faster in races. Then there’s hydration and fueling to sort out in practice.

The London field looks awesome though and Kiplimo and Sawe may boost each other to 2:02+.

Unless he’s an idiot, I don’t think he needs a coach to tell him not to put in a surge between a 61 opener, and 18 miles.

What are we thinking after 56:42? Is sub 2 a possibility? You'd think surely not on his debut, but I wouldn't completely rule it out these days.

it feels like he should absolutely go for it. If he is able to run a 56:42 Half, going out at 60min flat for the 1st half seems very reasonable. I hope he has a good marathon prep until then. Big question is can they find 2 pacers to hang on with him at least until 15k ? and would Sawe go with him too ?

I expect Kiplimo to run 2:05 in London, meaning that he will obliterate the fukk out of 2:06 runners, but not the entire field. Don't forget Bekele hasn't been announced for London yet, but I expect he will be. He had to drop from Valencia so he could focus on clearing an injury so it wouldn't get worse. Bekele is going to literally destroy London in 2 months

My prediction is he will be doped.