I think you are cherry picking limitlessly, and presenting cites from Jakob without looking on other cites and context. And therefore I think you conclude extremely wrongly. (Claiming that Jakob should be / was very pleased with his 63.13 and 27.27, and that this was just a fun and random HM to him). Well, at least I think Jakob suffers from a severe cognitive dissonance if he supports your reasoning, which I really hope he doesn’t…
I think Copenhagen was a much worse blow in the face for Jakob than even his Olympic 1500m misery, because this 10k/ HM must affect all his thinking about his own talent, training philosophy and future. -Something must be very wrong when you run more than 5 min slower than expected in your favourite distance…
You keep saying that Jakob wasn’t well prepared for the HM, and that he just went for it as a spontaneous joyful thing, and that it therefore was just a random HM. But the fact is this: 1. He contacted the arrangement two weeks before race day. 2. He knew very well that this race could be the fastest race in the HM history -WR holder Kiplimo and Wchamp Sawe announced the race as a WR attempt, with maybe the best pacer of all time, Aregawi. And the conditions were excellent. -Hardly a random race, if you ask me…
Here’s what I think Jakob thought: 1. This chance is too good to not grasp -as an underdog I am allowed to let the two top guys draft me most of the way. And I can also use Filip as an alternative pacer if Aregawi goes way too fast under WR pace in the first part of the race, and maybe catch up with the guys and beat them if they hit the wall…
2. The race might come a little too close to Brussels (36 hours), and I might be leggy, but last year I had 24 hours between two important races (Eugene), and was just a little leggy then, and won both… And just like in 2022 and 2023 I don’t really suffer from a long season (this is the shortest I have had, and there’s a reason why I’m so motivated for this race: No fatigue). And it’s true that I have prioritised 1500/5000m, but since I never thin down my training in the season too much anyway, I think I can manage. -I’m obviously not especially prepared for a HM now, but the drafting advantage may compensate for that. -On a lucky day I might even win, maybe in a WR. After all my talent and over all training favours this distance…
3. If I’m above average leggy I might have a hard time in the race. That could f.x mean that the two top guys are good for 57 low/mid whereas I could be a minute slower: Blow up alert if I then try to follow them all the way. -I might hit the wall one kilometre from the finish line, and struggle to finish (something like Cheptegei on his worst), but still break the National or European record. But why not try; in my 3000m WR I could have hit the wall (in the warm weather) when the pacers quit, and been past by Aregawi, but sometimes taking a chance pays off…
You categorically ignore that Jakob has claimed that HM is his best distance, based on his talent, and past and current training, as in the training he is doing now. And yes, he has stated that things must align to break a WR, and that one should prepare. But he has also said that racing a lot gives you opportunities to do (even unexpected) fast races. And his 3000m was set without everything aligning (to hot, wind guts, etc). And we know that Komen’s old record also was very unexpected based on his shape only a few days prior. And Kejelcha had very little pacing in his new record. And Jakob’s 2000m record was his first race after sickness… So I think Jakob didn’t expect a HM record based on his (lack of) preparations, but I think he saw it as a possibility on a lucky day…
You keep on saying that Jakob maybe expected to blow up and not finish. Yes, but I told you in and earlier post that this of course didn’t mean not being able to run half of the distance -that’s not a blow up; that’s just not being up to the task generally speaking. What Jakob clearly must have meant was blowing up in the last part of the race because of following the top guys in a murderous pace.
Lastly: Kejelcha is a good comparison: Just like Jakob he was in a “long” Olympic season, and also competed in the 3000 and 5000m (+10000m), but unlike Jakob he managed to run a superb HM, despite that their mileage training might be very alike. -Of course he had a much longer fall to prepare for his HM, and clearly wasn’t leggy (we don’t know if Jakob was -he hasn’t said so much), but the difference between them cries out for a explanation (from Jakob) for how HM can be Jakob’s best distance when he beats Kejelcha with 6 sec in the 3000m, but is almost 6 min slower in the HM..! I await for a huge explanation from Jakob, but it needs to be much better than your’s…