Valencia Marathon - goal pace

I have ran 1:17:30 HM and 2:41:30 M and a half year later 1:13:05 HM and 2:36:08 M. Id say the 1;17;30 was kinda badly raced, it could have been sub 1;17 i think. So based on my experience 1:20 hm seems reasonable. What's the thought for splitting 1:18?, that would be a VERY generous HM/M conversion

Rationale is my fitness kept improving over the past few months and weeks

It seems you have trained a lot in 6:00 mile pace, which is around 2:37marathon time, if I am not mistaken..

I would go out in the 1:18:30-1:19:00 range if I was you.

Especially your 6/5/4/3, at 5:49 seems like you should be able to do that and maybe even faster. But going out that way for the first half is probably smart, also seeing how your PR is 2:49 so it would be a huge PR to run 2:37 and experience is key.

(The 6/5/4/3 are k splits right I assume in the above).

You can always pick up the pace at the last 5-10k or so (although a difficult feat even if you go out a bit slower).

I'm running Valencia myself! Good luck to you, would be nice to hear how you did!

I think you go on the more conservative side & take it out in 1:20-flat for the first half. The workouts look great from 6 to 3 weeks out. Decent mileage. Big improvements at 10k/20k. You still see plenty of people running low-2:40s off of those times. Going out a 1:18 might feel good for 13 miles but could result in falling off more than you would have with a more conservative start. Maybe that gets you a 2:42-2:43 when it could've been 2:39-2:40. Valencia is fast. As long as the weather is good I would start at 6:06/mile. Still puts 2:38/2:39 in play. I like to be 5s/mile slow through 5k/10k. I might even go out in 6:05-6:10 through 10k if I were you. Just feel like I would've wanted to have seen slightly faster races & a longer than 4 week block with that quality to confidently say to chase 2:36-2:37. You're due for a big PB tho -- just execute a smart race. It's not like this will be your only marathon to improve.

Appreciate your feedbacks!

You are right I trained volumes around 6:00 mile pace.

Great, what is your goal for Valencia? Good luck to you too!

To complete: prior to that 4 week block, quality wise I focused mostly on HM pace, and started to work on my marathon pace with shorter intervals (10x1k, 10x1mile...).

From 14 to 3 weeks out, I ran 17 long runs of at least 15 miles, averaging 17 miles. Plus a bunch of 13 miles. Two mid/long runs each week with some quality.

Following as in similar shape to yourself & unsure of goal time

I am right around 2:30ish......

Awesome, enjoy the race! Hope we get cold weather