Can I run 2:40 at CIM?

I've ran slower marathons (2:43 2:46 2:47) on more and more consistent mileage, more and faster (at least comparable) workouts. But I have slower PRs, barely sub 5/17 and a 78min half so you probably have more ability/higher ceiling than me. I'd say based on the HM shoot for 2:42 and see what happens the last 10k.

Why you gonna let some anonymous message board decide that for you

Your training doesn't indicate a 2:40, but maybe the magic of the CIM course will help. Personally, I'd estimate 2:45 in good conditions. But if the weather is good and obviously the course is favorable, you might run faster.

I was thinking 2:45 myself when I read the training and racing. But I will say that you can only run what you can convince yourself you can run (with the training of course). If you don't think you can run a certain time then you won't. Confidence goes a long way in the Marathon.

Based on your age and the quality of running you've done, I think you could probably run a time in the 2:45–2:52 range. It really is going to depend on how you approach the race. If you go out too hard, you will pay for it in the last half. If you are patient, you will probably run pretty well. However, you will not run well if you don't believe that you can run that fast.

I would shoot for 2:45ish in good conditions. Adjust for weather. Your training looks better/more consistent later in the build. The 1:16:59 is in the sub-2:40 potential range if you have really good endurance & have been cranking out high mileage & get the right day on a fast course. I like the 2x5 miles & the 13.1 @ 6:09. Sub-2:40 is possible but I think you're one training block away. A little slower than that 13.1 @ 6:09 seems more likely.

Does CIM still have a sub-2:45 pace group? They used to when that was the women's OTQ standard. Regardless, CIM is usually deep and you should find some people to run with if you go out at 6:15 pace. CIM is known as a downhill course but actually rolls a bit in the front half. Let effort guide you between 6:10 & 6:20. If 6:15 avg. feel cozy then you can move at mile 20 when the entire last 10k is a gentle downhill grade to the finish. I would settle on a plan before the race and stick to it early. The opening 5k can be quick. Might be a mistake to be faster than 6:15 pace there even if it would be easy on tapered legs.

No. Maybe 2:50

I ran 2:44 at CIM a few years ago (age 41). I was on 2:37 pace for about 21 miles, then gradually bonked. I raced 1:11 and 31:45 leading up to the race which were both lifetime PRs. I averaged about 55 mpw @ mostly 7:20 pace. My longest, most significant training run about a month out was 18 miles at 6:02 pace. I wonder if I left part of my race in that run, plus the two races, plus not enough mileage as a speed-oriented runner.

Good luck! Marathons are hard.

Can you run 2:40 at CIM? No.

As you say in your own handle "How Washed Up Can You Get??"....makes you sound skeptical of your own ability. You do not sound confident. If your mental focus is weak what then do you expect?

2:55 easily. There is a pace group for 2:45 if you are brave !!!

how old are you and when was the last time you ran a marathon?

you do a lot of cut downs and negative split stuff. go out in 80:30 or 80:45 for halfway then send it. CIM is the course to do it on.

Def do-able

Rolling w 5:50s will be easy and on an easy course you prob won’t blow up

Do you think you are in 2:45 shape on a record eligible course? If so, 2:40 at CIM should be on the table.

Thanks all. I agree that 2:40 is likely optimistic, but I'm hoping for a minute or two of CIM magic... I'm planning on rolling 6:10s through at least halfway and seeing how that feels.

CIM is not worth 5 minutes

Completely agree. There is no "CIM magic" if you are not used to running hills.
It's constant ups and downs for the first 30k. Push too hard in the first part
and you won't have anything left in the last 10k. This was by far my slowest
marathon in my last 3. Boston 2:37 CIM 2:44 and Berlin 2:34.

I went halfway in 1:18 at CIM. Nothing crazy. And I fell apart the last 10k with
cramps in both hamstrings.

Run smart and have fun!

Good luck

I think you are close to 2:40, and might even be there if you race quite a bit better than you train, and if none of these workouts were in super-shoes, and if you've been good about practicing gels and all that. All said, anything below 2:45 is on the table but not guaranteed.

I think you should shoot for 2:41-43, but you should probably have 2:45 in your head to ensure you don't go out too fast. 81-82 through half and then evaluate.

Update us with results!

Would probably hit the first 5k, even 10k, @ 6:15 pace OP. CIM is a little deceptive in the front half. There are some rollers mixed in. After that I think dialing into 6:10/mile is fine. If you are feeling good with 10k to go it's a gentle downhill from there to the finish with no climbs at all. That's where you can find a little extra time.

The result?