More Kenyans busted

Don't be fooled: "Surprise!" responded to "restrunner", not me.

Kenyan doping is a problem. What is being done? Increased testing, and education.

Russian athletes were not banned per se, and could often (but not always) compete under neutral colors.

The Russian Athletics Federation (ARAF) was banned by the then IAAF based on recommendations from a WADA investigation into bribery and extortion and delayed enforcement of sanctions.

The WADA lab in Moscow, and the Russian antidoping agency (RUSADA) were banned based on events (among others) at the Sochi Winter Olympics.

Over time, several Olympic International federations followed suit, as well as the IOC.

Since then, many sanctions and reforms have been implemented.

Yes, but not much interest from Armstronglivs in this:

In the last 42 years, the Russian men's 5000m record improved by 0.00012% on average per year.

We know that Russia is ethically one of the most advanced countries in the world and most athletes would never dope. But when the improvements of Kenyans in the same period is measured almost in minutes (because of the new drugs all of them are using), wouldn't we expect at least a sub 13:10 from Russia?

You won. You were right all along.

You missed it. But that's ok. Like runners, some are slower than others.

Which evidence? The evidence you rely on to minimise doping. The evidence will always been less than the actual problem because it is concealed.

By the way - "the Emperor's new clothes" have just been revealed in a fresh antidoping report that 50 more doping busts are coming out of Kenya. So many athletes doping for no results - if only they knew what you know. But then, you have so much experience with doping.

So what proportion of Russian male athletes are participating in distance running today? What proportion of Kenyan athletes do anything except distance running?

That's your explanation that the fastest Russian in 2023 has run 13:19.58?

But you finally got one thing right: many Kenyans (most of them from some specific regions of the country) run. Kenya probably has much more runners than any other nation on earth (definitely relative to the population).

I will follow the next steps in your reasoning process with interest - also it will take TIME...

So your response to me saying you lack evidence is to confirm I have evidence.

Without evidence, you are just preaching mythology.

What I know about Kenya is that they have a lot of highly talented athletes, and that a lot of their doping has been identified to be due to negligence during medical treatment, and a lack of anti-doping information and education. If they only knew more about anti-doping and their obligations, that would be a big improvement.

You really are slow - the hobby-jogger of debate.

In saying you have evidence I am saying you lack sufficient evidence to support what you claim. Too subtle for you.

The evidence meanwhile continues to suggest doping significantly exceeds the numbers caught.

It is hard to keep up with how fast you change the subject. I thought you were talking about evidence "about its extent and its effects", or maybe "notable Russian running performances in athletics measured by a stop-watch, since the Soviet-era."

My claim was, lacking evidence, I file it under mythology. What evidence would be sufficient to support that claim?

You continue to discount either the prevalence of doping or its effects on the basis that what you can't see doesn't exist. The evidence therefore for your views remains inadequate to support your conclusions. You form inferences only from observing the tip of the iceberg.

However the known facts that doping is longstanding, is in all countries and in all sports, that it exceeds the best efforts to prevent it, and athletes are rational in their balance of risk and reward, leads to the likelihood that prevalence is high and athletes gain from its use.

You try to reason deductively off limited data when to reason according to what is probable from all that we know would lead to an opposite conclusion than the one you come to. But, then, you will do anything not to come to that conclusion.

I cannot discount that which has not yet been counted.

Your rationalizations and inferences do not count.

And you will do anything to come to the conclusion that everyone at the top is doping.

You discount what you can't count - as a bean-counter would. Your pedestrian mind cannot understand that something that cannot be quantified or measured may nonetheless exist - and that is widespread clandestine doping - which is conducted secretly - and performance enhancement - which athletes who dope do not reveal because they don't participate in your "studies".

Your entire basis for minimising doping on the basis of your very limited data is no different from one who denies the likely extent of white-collar crime or business corruption, and the benefits that accrue to those who are involved, because we similarly lack the "data" that shows their full extent. Neither the corruption or its benefits/kickbacks can be definitively measured because, like doping, it is not a practice that is engaged in openly. You of course would deny such corruption that occurs because you can't see it and can't measure it. You are not aware that in terms of doping in elite and professional sport you are smack in the middle of the ethical equivalent of a Third World country.

Not everyone. But enough so as to not know who is doping and who isn't. But that's what the available evidence leads to - and, unlike rekrunner and the other doping deniers here - I follow the evidence, rather than try not to see it.

I cannot discount that which no one has counted, and I only minimize that which has been exaggerated without substantial basis. If the acts are clandestine, and the use, and results, are secret and unknown, we cannot count it as knowledge, but rather belief. This belief is strong and widespread.

But if these powerful potions were used as widely as you keep suggesting, for as many decades as you suggest, that would mean they were widely used outside of Africa by some significant percentage of the fastest runners in the First and Second and Third Worlds. And yet we had to wait until 2010 for Solinsky to be the first non-African sub-27; until 2011 for Ryan Hall to be the first sub-2:05 (downhill with a tailwind from the hand of god); until 2015 for Evan Jager to scare sub-8:00 (if only he cleared that last steeple!); until 2021-2022 for Fisher and Ingebrigtsen to break 12:50; and until 2020 for Ingebrigtsen to run sub-3:29, 35 years after Coe and Cram.