Jakob will never break the 1500m - tired of this commentary

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

GreatDane wrote:

The statement that Jakob will never break the 1500m WR continues to be put out there by the Jakob naysayers, and he just keeps proving them wrong and wrong again as he moves down in distance from the 2 mile and now to the 2000m. Each time he hasn’t just broken the WR but totally obliterated it. The 1500m WR’s days are numbered.

It's not about "never" or "days are numbered" which is speaking in absolutes - he has a chance but as we are witnessing his career unfold it's clear what his physiological strengths are what distances they are better suited to.

As a 3.27 flat / 7.20 3000m runner (let's assume this confidently after the final 3000m of his 2 mile), when he said after that it (the 2k) record was easy for him, he was right. The only thing stopping him yesterday was his health/seasonal "battery" charge level and we got the answer. He was at his best yesterday, ran the race exactly as quite a few of us predicted and broke the record.

But if you ask me what's more likely to be broken by him, the 1500m or the 3000m well it's the 3000m. Not only does that distance suit his physiology better and the way he runs better, in terms of the evolution of his career it fits in better too. At some point he is going to focus on the 5000m (as he himself has said) and likely start thinking about that record. When this happens it's going to come at some cost, and this cost will be the anaerobic power needed to break the 1500m record.

He still needs to find 1.15 seconds there. That is not easy. I don't think it's as simple as saying he just needs to go through 1200m 1.15 seconds faster than Silesia because there is no doubt this will push him closer to threshold and we aren't going to see 40.2 for the last 300m like we did there. To break that record he is going to have to test the waters of 2.45.0-2.45.3 at 1200m at the very least which is another (albeit on a small incremental basis) plateau both physically and mentally. Of course he can do that in a race - can he then run under 41.0 seconds (which is still 54.7 pace) to do it? I haven't personally changed my mind on that - impossible? Absolutely not. Likelihood? I sit more on the bearish side for this one - it's more in the possible category than probable.

The mile I think is another story. Hicham split 3.28.21 and closed it in 14.92 for the final 109.3m - now that seems more on the probable side. We are back in that 2.46 high/2.47 low bracket through 3 laps that Jakob looks very much at home with.

He does have a tap out limit based on his physiology. I know you sh-tcanned the guy that kind of took this to the extreme talking about the 800 and the 600 etc - but the essence of that is correct. He has little to no chance at the 1000m record for a reason. Obviously the more we move away from that distance (let's just use that as a realistic marker) he has better chances. The 1500m is where it starts becoming plausible but by no means a given - and I am as big an advocate for his talent and ability as there is here!

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

GreatDane wrote:

The statement that Jakob will never break the 1500m WR continues to be put out there by the Jakob naysayers, and he just keeps proving them wrong and wrong again as he moves down in distance from the 2 mile and now to the 2000m. Each time he hasn’t just broken the WR but totally obliterated it. The 1500m WR’s days are numbered.

It's not about "never" or "days are numbered" which is speaking in absolutes - he has a chance but as we are witnessing his career unfold it's clear what his physiological strengths are what distances they are better suited to.

As a 3.27 flat / 7.20 3000m runner (let's assume this confidently after the final 3000m of his 2 mile), when he said after that it (the 2k) record was easy for him, he was right. The only thing stopping him yesterday was his health/seasonal "battery" charge level and we got the answer. He was at his best yesterday, ran the race exactly as quite a few of us predicted and broke the record.

But if you ask me what's more likely to be broken by him, the 1500m or the 3000m well it's the 3000m. Not only does that distance suit his physiology better and the way he runs better, in terms of the evolution of his career it fits in better too. At some point he is going to focus on the 5000m (as he himself has said) and likely start thinking about that record. When this happens it's going to come at some cost, and this cost will be the anaerobic power needed to break the 1500m record.

He still needs to find 1.15 seconds there. That is not easy. I don't think it's as simple as saying he just needs to go through 1200m 1.15 seconds faster than Silesia because there is no doubt this will push him closer to threshold and we aren't going to see 40.2 for the last 300m like we did there. To break that record he is going to have to test the waters of 2.45.0-2.45.3 at 1200m at the very least which is another (albeit on a small incremental basis) plateau both physically and mentally. Of course he can do that in a race - can he then run under 41.0 seconds (which is still 54.7 pace) to do it? I haven't personally changed my mind on that - impossible? Absolutely not. Likelihood? I sit more on the bearish side for this one - it's more in the possible category than probable.

The mile I think is another story. Hicham split 3.28.21 and closed it in 14.92 for the final 109.3m - now that seems more on the probable side. We are back in that 2.46 high/2.47 low bracket through 3 laps that Jakob looks very much at home with.

He does have a tap out limit based on his physiology. I know you sh-tcanned the guy that kind of took this to the extreme talking about the 800 and the 600 etc - but the essence of that is correct. He has little to no chance at the 1000m record for a reason. Obviously the more we move away from that distance (let's just use that as a realistic marker) he has better chances. The 1500m is where it starts becoming plausible but by no means a given - and I am as big an advocate for his talent and ability as there is here!

objectiveobserver wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

It's not about "never" or "days are numbered" which is speaking in absolutes - he has a chance but as we are witnessing his career unfold it's clear what his physiological strengths are what distances they are better suited to.

As a 3.27 flat / 7.20 3000m runner (let's assume this confidently after the final 3000m of his 2 mile), when he said after that it (the 2k) record was easy for him, he was right. The only thing stopping him yesterday was his health/seasonal "battery" charge level and we got the answer. He was at his best yesterday, ran the race exactly as quite a few of us predicted and broke the record.

But if you ask me what's more likely to be broken by him, the 1500m or the 3000m well it's the 3000m. Not only does that distance suit his physiology better and the way he runs better, in terms of the evolution of his career it fits in better too. At some point he is going to focus on the 5000m (as he himself has said) and likely start thinking about that record. When this happens it's going to come at some cost, and this cost will be the anaerobic power needed to break the 1500m record.

He still needs to find 1.15 seconds there. That is not easy. I don't think it's as simple as saying he just needs to go through 1200m 1.15 seconds faster than Silesia because there is no doubt this will push him closer to threshold and we aren't going to see 40.2 for the last 300m like we did there. To break that record he is going to have to test the waters of 2.45.0-2.45.3 at 1200m at the very least which is another (albeit on a small incremental basis) plateau both physically and mentally. Of course he can do that in a race - can he then run under 41.0 seconds (which is still 54.7 pace) to do it? I haven't personally changed my mind on that - impossible? Absolutely not. Likelihood? I sit more on the bearish side for this one - it's more in the possible category than probable.

The mile I think is another story. Hicham split 3.28.21 and closed it in 14.92 for the final 109.3m - now that seems more on the probable side. We are back in that 2.46 high/2.47 low bracket through 3 laps that Jakob looks very much at home with.

He does have a tap out limit based on his physiology. I know you sh-tcanned the guy that kind of took this to the extreme talking about the 800 and the 600 etc - but the essence of that is correct. He has little to no chance at the 1000m record for a reason. Obviously the more we move away from that distance (let's just use that as a realistic marker) he has better chances. The 1500m is where it starts becoming plausible but by no means a given - and I am as big an advocate for his talent and ability as there is here!

You are using many words Salvatore but you have one (unconscious?) reservation regarding Jakob: You don´t think he can improve much more at least not in the 1500m. You aren´t the only one here with that point of view. Several of the other serious posters mean the same.

But remember you had the same point of view years ago and was terrible wrong. And last year you adjusted your life time predictions for Jakob (downwards) but these predictions have already shown to be much too pessimistic once more; at least for the 2000m and the 3000m (you didn´t estimate a time for the 2 mile).

So even if you are right that it would be difficult for Jakob to break the 1500m record this year what about next year or next year again when Jakob has developed his aerobic capacity even further?

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

objectiveobserver wrote:

You are using many words Salvatore but you have one (unconscious?) reservation regarding Jakob: You don´t think he can improve much more at least not in the 1500m. You aren´t the only one here with that point of view. Several of the other serious posters mean the same.

But remember you had the same point of view years ago and was terrible wrong. And last year you adjusted your life time predictions for Jakob (downwards) but these predictions have already shown to be much too pessimistic once more; at least for the 2000m and the 3000m (you didn´t estimate a time for the 2 mile).

So even if you are right that it would be difficult for Jakob to break the 1500m record this year what about next year or next year again when Jakob has developed his aerobic capacity even further?

It's not an unconscious reservation - I don't think he's going to improve much more in the 1500m and I'm very conscious when I say that. Yes I have had to revise my career "predictions" of Jakob - but I wasn't aware there was a "one turn at bat" rule where that was either a) forbidden or b) a negative outlook on the kid.

I can't even remember what I "predicted" years ago for him over 1500m? 3.28 flat? (I'm sure you will tell me) I mean as of today he's not even a second faster than that. You are talking as if I had predicted he would be a 3.30 runner and flaming out about now due to his workload. As for "pessimism" there are probably 3 active threads right now where I said I believed he would break this WR. Again this "standard" you have for predictions having to be right first time with no room to revise is f-ing stupid. Grow up.

Your "next year and next year and next year" concept makes no sense. As he get's older he's more likely to shift his focus to the 3000m/5000m in terms of his record attempts. 2024 will be interesting because of Paris so who knows if he is going to be so keen to try and run records prior to then. My guess is he has visions of running sub 7.20 in the 3000m and then attacking the 5000m in the seasons following Paris which has to come at a cost to other distances. Furthermore, what does his aerobic capacity have to do with the 1500? It's not his aerobic capacity that is holding him back from the 1500m record old mate - you should do some research on your terms before you make yourself look silly.

So really the whole point of this post is that because I wasn't right first time about Jakobs career PR's I don't know what I'm talking about? Your are entitled to your opinion but dialogue with you is now officially over.

objectiveobserver wrote:

I had to find the time to address your opinion that Jakob won´t improve much in the 1500m. I think it is an interesting (and much discussed) question so I have tried to give a comprehensive explanation of my opinion.
And Salvatore I think your point of view is reflecting what the majority of posters believe, including serious posters as THOUGHTSLEADER and JOHN W. Harding and I also think that
even some of the patriotic Norwegian posters agree with you.

But the majority sometimes is wrong (just ask Galileo Galilei).

I will try to keep this post in an urban and factual manner. No need to start a personal vendetta.
------------------------------
There is nothing wrong about being wrong but sometimes you should perhaps consider if your theory/ gut feeling is correct when it fails to produce the right results.

Because you were not wrong one time Salvatore. You were wrong twice, last in a post just about 1 year ago (see below).
Your first predictions was from early season 2020 (after the Impossible Games) :

“Everything you said here is right on.
My question is that this rate of progression simply has to slow down at
some point - obviously Jakob is super accelerated with respect to age
and ability - could it be that he simply starts tapping out before he
even hits 22? This is quite possible.
What do I think he's going to run if he stays healthy?
1500: 3.29.0 +/- 0.2 seconds
Mile: 3.48.0 +/- 0.2 seconds
2000m 4.49.5 +/- 0.5 seconds (if he ever runs one again which he may not)
3000m: 7.30.0 +/- 0.5 seconds
50000m: 12.55 +/- 1 second
I believe it's easy to just think he's going to blast his PR's every
single time he's on the track. But his bank of cumulative hard efforts
is well and truly underway. If he hit the best case for each of my
predictions he is basically Mo Farah without the drugs which gives an
idea of how good I am assuming he is.
As for WR's though? - to quote James - "not even remotely""
-------------------
So in early season 2020 you were certain that Jakob wouldn´t break any WRs.

I had another opinion and in a post from 10 September 2022 I wrote the following:
"I have for years – at least from late 2018 – predicted that he will break all the WRs on the said distances.
I would say his career PBs will be:
Sub 3:25 in the 1500m
Sub 3:42 in the mile
Sub 4:43 in the 2000m
Sub 7:20 in the 3000m and
Sub 12:32 in the 5000m"
------------------------------
I wrote on the same thread to you and asked if you wanted to adjust your predictions from the above quote.
You gave the following answer:

"Nice find! Yeah I wouldn't say that was dismissive in any way, it was at
the time the level I thought he would get to (based on a hypothesis his rapid improvement
was possibly not sustainable) and come on, not like any of those performances are bad! I mean if Jakob was an Olympic/World champ and had that lifetime resume of PR's it still makes him one of the greatest MD runners of all time.
And yet I was totally wrong which I am happy to admit because he's even better!
This would now be my revision for him based on the last 12 months
1500m 3.27.2 +/- 0.2
seconds
Mile 3.44.8 +/- 0.2 seconds
2000m 4.47.2 +/- 0.5
seconds
3000m 7.25.5 +/- 0.5 seconds
5000m 12.44.5 +/- 0.5
seconds
I still stand by the WR's
POV.
Obviously his best chance is at his best event - the 1500m/Mile but I don't know
if he has the pure leg speed to run into the 26's. You could point to
Lagat who had a recorded 800m PR of 1.46 and also El G at 1.47 but there
is zero doubt when both of them were in low 3.26 shape they were 1.44
high runners at worst (and I think El Guerrouj more like 1.43's). The
optics and strengths of Jakob and my gut feeling is that he can run in
the 1.45 mid range but I don't know if that's enough. The 2000m and
3000m records are just ridiculous -especially the 3000m, but the 2000 is sneakily incredible - 3.49.6 for 4 laps then 55.19 to close? I could see JI going 3.51.x through 1200 then grinding out a 55.x
Again, just my opinion - would be happy to wrong on this again too!”
-----------------------
You wrote in the last
sentence of this quote that you “could see JI going 3.51 through 1200". It should possible have been THROUGH 1600?
The last lifetime predictions are already completely wrong regarding the 2000m and the 3000m (which you now consider is at least 7:20 judged from the 2 mile WB; I agree with that).
The predictions regarding the 1500m and the mile are not wrong (at least not YET) but perhaps a bit surprising that Jakob almost realized the 1500 lifetime predicton in less than
a year?
---------------------------
But this leads me to the central question in this post:
My opinion is

THAT JAKOB (ALSO) WILL IMPROVE HIS 1500M AND MILE PBs SIGNIFICANTLY THE COMING YEARS PROVIDED HE CAN CONTINUE HIS EFFICIENT MAINLY AEROBIC TRAINING WITHPOUT SERIOUS ILLNESS OR INJURY.

AND YES, HE WILL IMPROVE THESE PBs MAINLY BECAUSE OF HIS EVER INCREASING AEROBIC CAPACITY.

When Jakob is running away from everyone in the 1500m (except in the Worlds final when he was ill; sorry Brits!) it isn´t because of superior speed but because of superior ENDURANCE/ AEROBIC CAPACITY.

He was running a 52 last lap in the Budapest 5000m final (when ill) so he has sufficient legspeed to run a WR in the 1500m. He "just" needs a bit more endurance to maintain
55 for 3 laps and finish in a sub 41 for the last 300m. Or perhaps better: 55.5 ; 55 ; 55 ;
sub 40.5 considering he likes to start “softly”.

Of course my point of view is based on a theory which might be proven wrong but so far I have been right.
Like a real scientist
I will give the main arguments for my theory:

A. Physical process: If you train right aerobically you can steadily increase your aerobic capacity, that is the muscles´ ability to utilize the oxygen.

B. You can increase this aerobic capacity for many years, at least well into your thirties. Otherwise Gebrselassie, Kipchoge, Bekele and Mo Farah wouldn´t be able to improve their marathon PBs long after they turned 30. The marathon performance is almost 100% dependent on the aerobic capacity.

C. The aerobic capacity is an important part of the performance in the 1500m so as long as you can improve this capacity and not be too long away from your physical prime you can improve in the 1500 (a small decline in your overall physical power can be offset by the
increased aerobic capacity).

D. Many, many former and current top runners have increased their times in the 1500m significantly after age 22,most until their mid twenties, some to their late twenties or even early thirties. It is VERY unlikely that Jakob won´t develop in the same way as these 1500m runners since his training during more than 15 years has shown to produce a steady improvement in his endurance.

E. And as mentioned: His legspeed is fully sufficient to run a WR in the 1500m.

I will elaborate more on some of the arguments above in separate posts.

Finally: This is not all about Jakob. The above arguments go for everybody.

So if Reynold, Laros, Myers, Hocker, Teare, Kessler and more train in a similar way with main focus on developing the aerobic capacity they have the same possibility for steadily
improving their 1500m times. And the times in the longer distances (and even in the 800m).
----------------------------------
You are free not to answer.
But why don´t you come back in a year or two to reevaluate your theory and your
predictions?

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

objectiveobserver wrote:

I had to find the time to address your opinion that Jakob won´t improve much in the 1500m. I think it is an interesting (and much discussed) question so I have tried to give a comprehensive explanation of my opinion.
And Salvatore I think your point of view is reflecting what the majority of posters believe, including serious posters as THOUGHTSLEADER and JOHN W. Harding and I also think that
even some of the patriotic Norwegian posters agree with you.

But the majority sometimes is wrong (just ask Galileo Galilei).

I will try to keep this post in an urban and factual manner. No need to start a personal vendetta.
------------------------------
There is nothing wrong about being wrong but sometimes you should perhaps consider if your theory/ gut feeling is correct when it fails to produce the right results.

Because you were not wrong one time Salvatore. You were wrong twice, last in a post just about 1 year ago (see below).
Your first predictions was from early season 2020 (after the Impossible Games) :

“Everything you said here is right on.
My question is that this rate of progression simply has to slow down at
some point - obviously Jakob is super accelerated with respect to age
and ability - could it be that he simply starts tapping out before he
even hits 22? This is quite possible.
What do I think he's going to run if he stays healthy?
1500: 3.29.0 +/- 0.2 seconds
Mile: 3.48.0 +/- 0.2 seconds
2000m 4.49.5 +/- 0.5 seconds (if he ever runs one again which he may not)
3000m: 7.30.0 +/- 0.5 seconds
50000m: 12.55 +/- 1 second
I believe it's easy to just think he's going to blast his PR's every
single time he's on the track. But his bank of cumulative hard efforts
is well and truly underway. If he hit the best case for each of my
predictions he is basically Mo Farah without the drugs which gives an
idea of how good I am assuming he is.
As for WR's though? - to quote James - "not even remotely""
-------------------
So in early season 2020 you were certain that Jakob wouldn´t break any WRs.

I had another opinion and in a post from 10 September 2022 I wrote the following:
"I have for years – at least from late 2018 – predicted that he will break all the WRs on the said distances.
I would say his career PBs will be:
Sub 3:25 in the 1500m
Sub 3:42 in the mile
Sub 4:43 in the 2000m
Sub 7:20 in the 3000m and
Sub 12:32 in the 5000m"
------------------------------
I wrote on the same thread to you and asked if you wanted to adjust your predictions from the above quote.
You gave the following answer:

"Nice find! Yeah I wouldn't say that was dismissive in any way, it was at
the time the level I thought he would get to (based on a hypothesis his rapid improvement
was possibly not sustainable) and come on, not like any of those performances are bad! I mean if Jakob was an Olympic/World champ and had that lifetime resume of PR's it still makes him one of the greatest MD runners of all time.
And yet I was totally wrong which I am happy to admit because he's even better!
This would now be my revision for him based on the last 12 months
1500m 3.27.2 +/- 0.2
seconds
Mile 3.44.8 +/- 0.2 seconds
2000m 4.47.2 +/- 0.5
seconds
3000m 7.25.5 +/- 0.5 seconds
5000m 12.44.5 +/- 0.5
seconds
I still stand by the WR's
POV.
Obviously his best chance is at his best event - the 1500m/Mile but I don't know
if he has the pure leg speed to run into the 26's. You could point to
Lagat who had a recorded 800m PR of 1.46 and also El G at 1.47 but there
is zero doubt when both of them were in low 3.26 shape they were 1.44
high runners at worst (and I think El Guerrouj more like 1.43's). The
optics and strengths of Jakob and my gut feeling is that he can run in
the 1.45 mid range but I don't know if that's enough. The 2000m and
3000m records are just ridiculous -especially the 3000m, but the 2000 is sneakily incredible - 3.49.6 for 4 laps then 55.19 to close? I could see JI going 3.51.x through 1200 then grinding out a 55.x
Again, just my opinion - would be happy to wrong on this again too!”
-----------------------
You wrote in the last
sentence of this quote that you “could see JI going 3.51 through 1200". It should possible have been THROUGH 1600?
The last lifetime predictions are already completely wrong regarding the 2000m and the 3000m (which you now consider is at least 7:20 judged from the 2 mile WB; I agree with that).
The predictions regarding the 1500m and the mile are not wrong (at least not YET) but perhaps a bit surprising that Jakob almost realized the 1500 lifetime predicton in less than
a year?
---------------------------
But this leads me to the central question in this post:
My opinion is

THAT JAKOB (ALSO) WILL IMPROVE HIS 1500M AND MILE PBs SIGNIFICANTLY THE COMING YEARS PROVIDED HE CAN CONTINUE HIS EFFICIENT MAINLY AEROBIC TRAINING WITHPOUT SERIOUS ILLNESS OR INJURY.

AND YES, HE WILL IMPROVE THESE PBs MAINLY BECAUSE OF HIS EVER INCREASING AEROBIC CAPACITY.

When Jakob is running away from everyone in the 1500m (except in the Worlds final when he was ill; sorry Brits!) it isn´t because of superior speed but because of superior ENDURANCE/ AEROBIC CAPACITY.

He was running a 52 last lap in the Budapest 5000m final (when ill) so he has sufficient legspeed to run a WR in the 1500m. He "just" needs a bit more endurance to maintain
55 for 3 laps and finish in a sub 41 for the last 300m. Or perhaps better: 55.5 ; 55 ; 55 ;
sub 40.5 considering he likes to start “softly”.

Of course my point of view is based on a theory which might be proven wrong but so far I have been right.
Like a real scientist
I will give the main arguments for my theory:

A. Physical process: If you train right aerobically you can steadily increase your aerobic capacity, that is the muscles´ ability to utilize the oxygen.

B. You can increase this aerobic capacity for many years, at least well into your thirties. Otherwise Gebrselassie, Kipchoge, Bekele and Mo Farah wouldn´t be able to improve their marathon PBs long after they turned 30. The marathon performance is almost 100% dependent on the aerobic capacity.

C. The aerobic capacity is an important part of the performance in the 1500m so as long as you can improve this capacity and not be too long away from your physical prime you can improve in the 1500 (a small decline in your overall physical power can be offset by the
increased aerobic capacity).

D. Many, many former and current top runners have increased their times in the 1500m significantly after age 22,most until their mid twenties, some to their late twenties or even early thirties. It is VERY unlikely that Jakob won´t develop in the same way as these 1500m runners since his training during more than 15 years has shown to produce a steady improvement in his endurance.

E. And as mentioned: His legspeed is fully sufficient to run a WR in the 1500m.

I will elaborate more on some of the arguments above in separate posts.

Finally: This is not all about Jakob. The above arguments go for everybody.

So if Reynold, Laros, Myers, Hocker, Teare, Kessler and more train in a similar way with main focus on developing the aerobic capacity they have the same possibility for steadily
improving their 1500m times. And the times in the longer distances (and even in the 800m).
----------------------------------
You are free not to answer.
But why don´t you come back in a year or two to reevaluate your theory and your
predictions?

I think you nailed it in this very impressive and long post, and your ending is very decent! And there are really these long term signs of staggering times coming from Jakob, despite seemingly periods of temporary stagnation (time wise, f.ex in his 2022 outdoor season -we / I should have listen to his then wordings of times he didn’t get out in the races..!)