D3 XC Season Predictions

John Carrol ranked second in the Great Lakes behind Calvin? Was Alex Phillip carrying them on his back?

Good to see Jamie give his team a ranking. No way the West gets six teams in.

You’re right, SUNY brockport’s endless whining last year more than deserves a bid. And everyone is TERRIFIED of Bowdoin this fall.

Sircapalot wrote:

John Carrol ranked second in the Great Lakes behind Calvin? Was Alex Phillip carrying them on his back?

yes

LACCTIC has 7 west teams in the top 33, but that includes Lewis and Clark who lost most of their top guys transferring out so really 6 teams in the top 32. Rankings mostly line up well with the USTFCCCA ranks, aside from a few consistently overranked teams (brockport, tufts, W/L, middlebury)

best coast bias wrote:

LACCTIC has 7 west teams in the top 33, but that includes Lewis and Clark who lost most of their top guys transferring out so really 6 teams in the top 32. Rankings mostly line up well with the USTFCCCA ranks, aside from a few consistently overranked teams (brockport, tufts, W/L, middlebury)

West region overrated yet again. Expecting another fall from grace come championship season.

best coast bias wrote:

LACCTIC has 7 west teams in the top 33, but that includes Lewis and Clark who lost most of their top guys transferring out so really 6 teams in the top 32. Rankings mostly line up well with the USTFCCCA ranks, aside from a few consistently overranked teams (brockport, tufts, W/L, middlebury)

I havent done any statistical analysis to look into whether this phenomenon has any truth to it (everyone said Pomona was over-ranked the year they won). I'd guess it has to do with:

1) West coast schools run fast track times because the weather is really good during track season (I can attest to the difference having been in both places).

2) West coast schools are less prepared to run in cold nationals races.

No idea though, I guess we will have to see...

Washed-up Grad Student wrote:

best coast bias wrote:

LACCTIC has 7 west teams in the top 33, but that includes Lewis and Clark who lost most of their top guys transferring out so really 6 teams in the top 32. Rankings mostly line up well with the USTFCCCA ranks, aside from a few consistently overranked teams (brockport, tufts, W/L, middlebury)

I havent done any statistical analysis to look into whether this phenomenon has any truth to it (everyone said Pomona was over-ranked the year they won). I'd guess it has to do with:

1) West coast schools run fast track times because the weather is really good during track season (I can attest to the difference having been in both places).

2) West coast schools are less prepared to run in cold nationals races.

No idea though, I guess we will have to see...

From a SCIAC alum perspective:

I'd say we typically have easier access to great meets within a stones throw of us during outdoor. The early season outdoor meets for us in Feb/March aren't typically too fast for us but we have Occidental, Mount Sac, and APU within about a 25 mile stretch of each other.

I would agree on #2 for everyone but Claremont and Pomona. A lot of their athletes aren't actually from CA and have had much more experience running in colder temperatures/actually running in spikes for XC. The rest of the conference (Outside of Cal Tech) typically has a lot of athletes from the general area/Southern Section CIF.

I will also say as someone who was at the meet last year that the nationals course was incredibly tricky and seemed to be the kind of course where position from early in the race would dictate right around the spot you'd finish. It reminded me a bit of that year Colorado won in xc last decade.

West region had 4 teams (of 4 that were selected) in the top 19 last year, more than any other region. 2 years ago West had 11 all-americans, way more than any other region, only 2 teams selected and both in the top 6. On the women's side 5 teams in the top 22 in 2022. Aside from the PP epic choke job last year both men's and women's west teams have generally matched or exceeded their rankings the last 2 years. This ain't your mothers west region anymore.

Lets just keep selecting east region teams again so they can put 4 guys in the bottom 6 of the meet. East teams have claimed the distant last place spot for 2 years running, and filled out the 25+ positions consistently yet they keep getting ranked in the top 25...

I'm curious about the coaching situation at MIT. Shortly after the D3 national outdoor track championships, I received a couple of email messages from MIT that a certain assistant coach at another school was going to be the new head director and coach of the men's and women's cross-country and track teams. I have received confirmations in email messages rather recently. The background of the new head coach does not suggest much background or success in actually coaching distance runners. Especially in light of MIT's success last year, after Coach Taylor's retirement, I would have thought that the coaches already in place were doing a fine job. To anyone who actually has inside information on all of this, I'm curious to know what I'm missing.

Avocado\'s Number wrote:

I'm curious about the coaching situation at MIT. Shortly after the D3 national outdoor track championships, I received a couple of email messages from MIT that a certain assistant coach at another school was going to be the new head director and coach of the men's and women's cross-country and track teams. I have received confirmations in email messages rather recently. The background of the new head coach does not suggest much background or success in actually coaching distance runners. Especially in light of MIT's success last year, after Coach Taylor's retirement, I would have thought that the coaches already in place were doing a fine job. To anyone who actually has inside information on all of this, I'm curious to know what I'm missing.

More broadly, I want to note that the coaches in the sprints, hurdles, and field events were also doing just fine. I thought that perhaps the new hire would just be an administrator (which seemed consistent the new hire's experience), but "head coach" suggests much more than a an administrative assistant to provide some general oversight of schedules, recruiting visits (if they actually do those things), and such.

MIT is still being coached by Riley Macon. His wife is a pro runner. Sure he's not the most experienced coach but from his D3 glory days interview he seemed very cheerful and competent. He gives off Ted Lasso vibes and I think he'll be a far more effective coach than Halston Taylor who absolutely burned athletes to the ground while at the helm.

Grandpa page wrote:

MIT is still being coached by Riley Macon. His wife is a pro runner. Sure he's not the most experienced coach but from his D3 glory days interview he seemed very cheerful and competent. He gives off Ted Lasso vibes and I think he'll be a far more effective coach than Halston Taylor who absolutely burned athletes to the ground while at the helm.

That's good to hear. I didn't want to name the new hire until I heard more; is Riley's wife the new hire, or have I somehow misunderstood something really basic about what's going on?

I was an undergraduate at MIT before Halston Taylor started there. I don't think I could have come close to surviving his expectations; it was hard enough for me to squeeze running in amongst everything else I had going on. Also, in his updates to alumni, he also seemed unnecessarily harsh on athletes who seemed just to have a bad day ("he just didn't want it enough" and that sort of thing). At the same time, I appreciated what I perceived to be his hard work ethic, and when he retired, he wrote me a very kind message and published my response in his last newsletter, which was all very unexpected.

best coast bias wrote:

West region had 4 teams (of 4 that were selected) in the top 19 last year, more than any other region. 2 years ago West had 11 all-americans, way more than any other region, only 2 teams selected and both in the top 6. On the women's side 5 teams in the top 22 in 2022. Aside from the PP epic choke job last year both men's and women's west teams have generally matched or exceeded their rankings the last 2 years. This ain't your mothers west region anymore.

Lets just keep selecting east region teams again so they can put 4 guys in the bottom 6 of the meet. East teams have claimed the distant last place spot for 2 years running, and filled out the 25+ positions consistently yet they keep getting ranked in the top 25...

West region teams, with maybe the exception of PP, progressively got worse as the season progressed. You don't see that happening again? Look at the race results from last year.

Those fukers in the west are always getting an unfair treatment. Get ‘Em out of the rankings. We want to see some real racing come November. Not this California bahama bulls

Does anyone have the Stride Report Rankings?

Men’s Stride Report Rankings

1. Wartburg

2. MIT

3. Pomona Pitzer

4. North Central

5. La Crosse

6. Whitewater

7. RPI

8. SUNY Geneseo

9. John’s Hopkins

10. Carnegie Mellon

anyone know what causes the difference between the mens coach's poll and the Stride Report? NC #1 vs 4, wartbrug #7 v #1. Its almost like they are ranking totally different things.