I wouldn’t say likely. Both Crater and CDA will have to earn it, losing Gorze is a huge hit and they aren’t super deep. CDA wasn’t stellar this spring, they’ll be good, but saying they are a likely NXN team is a big improvement from last year and the spring they had. The NW still has deep programs like Jesuit and Rocky in the mix, along with a handful of others that will make NXR NW super interesting. I bet it’ll be 6-8 teams deep with Top 30 caliber teams.
Jesuit had a somewhat large 4-5 gap last year and they lose all of their top 3. So they will have a lot of ground to make up. But they do have great coaching and a ton of depth to pull from, and lots of incoming sophomores and juniors that stepped up during track. Also they have a Schumacher on the team who didn’t race last fall but had a solid track season.
I think it is likely that NW boys will get 1 at-large bid. I assume the committee underestimated the strength of those Oregon teams and probably won't make the same mistake next year. However, if you want to ensure a bid your teams need to go out of state and beat the teams that you think are overrated.
Unfortunately, with how good The Southwest Region is and the obvious California bias from Richy Gonzalez and company, the NW will have a very hard time getting 3 teams through. Rocky Mountain was ranked around 10th-12th nationally and didn’t receive a bid. The NW will need 3 teams ranked higher than that and all have great days on one Saturday in November.
Maybe the NW teams should go race California teams on their turf more often so that Rich Gonzalez sees them up close? When was the last time a top team outside of Crater or Jesuit went to CA to race at a big invitational? I don't think that you can rely on one California team coming up and beating them at Firman to be something that gives a lot of credit if that team noticeably improves all fall and has key runners sick at Firman.
Look at Rocky's schedule this fall. Bogus Basin, Caldwell, Tiger Grizz, East Boise, Firman, Gary Ward, Bob Conley, Gib Floyd, then Districts and State. They have one big meet where they will race top flight schools, and even then, only Boise is a team that is expected to have a shot at being top 5 at their NXR race. If Rocky takes 3rd there, and Boise takes 10th, then what good does that do them? They will have a resume that doesn't have a single signature victory. At least CDA and Boise are actually heading out of state to race at big races instead of apparently hinging your entire season on how another local school (Boise) looks at NXR relative to the rest of the field.
I do also think that it's a known fact that Rocky trains on the Eagle Island course all the time. Not leaving the state to race other schools and winning a big invitational on the training grounds you are more familiar with than any other school doesn't carry quite the same weight as winning that meet and then going to Hole in the Wall or Nike Portland and facing off and racing well against Jesuit or Crater. You want to get treated like a big boy, race the big boys. Not going to those meets (especially not even traveling your top 7 boys and girls when you have 100+ kids) is a deliberate choice made by the coaching staff. Mountain View, Boise, Timberline, Eagle, CDA, Bishop Kelly, Idaho Falls, and Meridian are all going to big meets out of state. None of those programs are remotely the size or have the depth of Rocky Mountain.
The thing is, at Bob Firman, Rocky Mountain beat Great Oak, and Great Oak had their full varsity roster there. And Rocky Mountain still wasn’t selected as an at-large.
Great Oak also autoqualified for NXN from California (finished in the top 2 at the state meet in the merge), so Rocky Mountain beat a team that auto-qualified for nationals
Great Oak also autoqualified for NXN from California (finished in the top 2 at the state meet in the merge), so Rocky Mountain beat a team that auto-qualified for nationals
Great Oak also autoqualified for NXN from California (finished in the top 2 at the state meet in the merge), so Rocky Mountain beat a team that auto-qualified for nationals
And Great Oak 1. Showed significant improvement over the season, posting better and better speed ratings as the year went on and 2. Was well documented as having multiple top 5 guys be ill at that meet.
They looked better at the end of the year and had a better resume over the course of the entire season. Had Rocky Mountain had another quality victory or showing at a big invitational, they would have gone as an at large. That's on their coaching staff for not giving the kids a schedule that gives them a good enough resume to get in as an at large. It looks like they are doing the same thing this year.
Hole in the wall has 3 different points where you run on the track, that’s not XC. Woodbridge isn’t in the window of meets that Rich Gonzalez takes into consideration, NXN starts looking at quality wins the last week of September (Starting at Bob Firman weekend). Woodbridge isn’t a true XC course either.
It seems like Rocky is one of those programs that values team culture over creating a hierarchy of fast kids that travel all over to big meets. NXN is one of those things that is turning into the “cool” kid thing to be at, when in reality these kids need to be shown that performance doesn’t make anyone more or less valuable. You can see the infestation of this in our XC/Distance culture, just watch an interview with Connor Burns or any of his buddies. Sadly, that is who younger runners are looking up to.
The thing is everyone is getting faster and nxn community doesn’t care about “rankings” they care about face-to-face competition when giving auto bids. Granda was chosen over Rocky Mountain because of their performance at Woodbridge (in an extremely competitive field).
imagine winning your state championships in the 3200 and expecting to be invited to brooks pr 3200. Yeah, it is not happening until you face lots of competition and actually get that time down. Which is why so many people go to Arcadia 3200 to face lots of competition.
Woodbridge was not a factor in why Granada was selected over Rocky Mt.
They only count competitions starting the last week of September. So Woodbridge is incredible competition, BUT too early for the NXN committee to consider it. That is what was communicated from Rich Gonzalez.
Woodbridge was not a factor in why Granada was selected over Rocky Mt.
They only count competitions starting the last week of September. So Woodbridge is incredible competition, BUT too early for the NXN committee to consider it. That is what was communicated from Rich Gonzalez.
Granada beat Great Oak at the Clovis Invotational. Great Oak had their whole varsity except R Cortes there. So Granada beat them not once, but twice. Maybe that’s what the committee took into consideration?
Hole in the wall has 3 different points where you run on the track, that’s not XC. Woodbridge isn’t in the window of meets that Rich Gonzalez takes into consideration, NXN starts looking at quality wins the last week of September (Starting at Bob Firman weekend). Woodbridge isn’t a true XC course either.
It seems like Rocky is one of those programs that values team culture over creating a hierarchy of fast kids that travel all over to big meets. NXN is one of those things that is turning into the “cool” kid thing to be at, when in reality these kids need to be shown that performance doesn’t make anyone more or less valuable. You can see the infestation of this in our XC/Distance culture, just watch an interview with Connor Burns or any of his buddies. Sadly, that is who younger runners are looking up to.
Doesn't matter what the course is like. What matters is the head to head competition.
I'm not saying that Rocky should travel all over the country. What I'm saying is that if they want an at large bid, they should go to even one big invitational that they have to travel to and show that they can run against the top schools at a course that they don't train on weekly. Crater and Jesuit have the luxury of being able to race lots of top schools weekly. Rocky doesn't. Since they don't have that luxury, they should try to get multiple data points showing that they can beat or race competitively against those schools. It really is that simple. Had Rocky gone to Hole in the Wall last year and won or taken a close 2nd, they would have probably gone to NXN. That was a gamble the coaches decided to make and are apparently making again. If Rocky finishes 3rd being just as competitive as they were last year (which is to say that they were still pretty far from beating Jesuit even though the points show they were close), it will probably pay out the same way.
I took a look at the tentative schedules and a few meets jumped out at me as interesting or important for Idaho this year. I was looking for where we will get signs about how the teams are shaking out and whether Idaho might get an at large bid this year.
Sep. 2 - Cardinal Classic in Soda Springs. Every city should be so lucky as to have a great XC skiing course to use for XC racing. Boise and Mountain View head out and sometimes there is a strong Wyoming runner or team to add to the competition.
Sep. 8 - Tiger Grizz gives a good early chance to see how SE Idaho and a handful of traveling Boise teams like Rocky fare on a tough XC course.
Sep. 23 - Bob Firman - Almost all the contenders except CDA will be there. Boise v. Rocky v. Utah schools should be very telling whether either could contend for NXN this year. Will any other Boise school threaten them? How will they match up with the WA and OR teams like Seattle Prep that are coming out? This looks like Rocky's best chance to make a national statement.
Sep. 30 - Nike Portland - A few Idaho teams are headed out. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but strong showings by Idaho teams at big OR and WA meets could help any Idaho team, not just them, merit an at large Idaho bid.
Sep. 30 - Twilight meet at Cedarcrest in WA - Boise's chance to make an out of state impression.
Oct 5 Bob Conley - Rocky and IF square off on the state course and give us a chance to see how their current teams compare to their recent fast teams on the state course.
Oct 7 - Nike Hole in the Wall in WA - CDA's best chance to make its case for an at large bid, if needed. Timberline also head out.
What did I miss?
First meet of the year looks good if everyone races.
Bogus Basin has Boise, Rocky, and Centennial for the guys teams. Individually, Ringert, Stadtlander, and Stockett make it super competitive.
Hole in the wall has 3 different points where you run on the track, that’s not XC. Woodbridge isn’t in the window of meets that Rich Gonzalez takes into consideration, NXN starts looking at quality wins the last week of September (Starting at Bob Firman weekend). Woodbridge isn’t a true XC course either.
It seems like Rocky is one of those programs that values team culture over creating a hierarchy of fast kids that travel all over to big meets. NXN is one of those things that is turning into the “cool” kid thing to be at, when in reality these kids need to be shown that performance doesn’t make anyone more or less valuable. You can see the infestation of this in our XC/Distance culture, just watch an interview with Connor Burns or any of his buddies. Sadly, that is who younger runners are looking up to.
Doesn't matter what the course is like. What matters is the head to head competition.
I'm not saying that Rocky should travel all over the country. What I'm saying is that if they want an at large bid, they should go to even one big invitational that they have to travel to and show that they can run against the top schools at a course that they don't train on weekly. Crater and Jesuit have the luxury of being able to race lots of top schools weekly. Rocky doesn't. Since they don't have that luxury, they should try to get multiple data points showing that they can beat or race competitively against those schools. It really is that simple. Had Rocky gone to Hole in the Wall last year and won or taken a close 2nd, they would have probably gone to NXN. That was a gamble the coaches decided to make and are apparently making again. If Rocky finishes 3rd being just as competitive as they were last year (which is to say that they were still pretty far from beating Jesuit even though the points show they were close), it will probably pay out the same way.
I am really suprised that everyone is just speaking their minds on here (the Idaho thread). I thought the general consensus was the let idaho think that they were robbed from a bid and that "california politics" played a role.
However, in retrospect seeing how well Jesuit and Crater did at NXN, they should have gotten a bid. But there was absolutely "no california politics" and "rich gonzalez" playing a role in why Idaho didn't get a bid. They didn't get a bid because they never competed a really competitive field.
I am really suprised that everyone is just speaking their minds on here (the Idaho thread). I thought the general consensus was the let idaho think that they were robbed from a bid and that "california politics" played a role.
However, in retrospect seeing how well Jesuit and Crater did at NXN, they should have gotten a bid. But there was absolutely "no california politics" and "rich gonzalez" playing a role in why Idaho didn't get a bid. They didn't get a bid because they never competed a really competitive field.
If you mean the Rocky Mountain runners and parents that get on here and 10:25 guys from Thunder Ridge that desperately need Rocky Mountain to be relevant in a national conversation so that their time in high school meant something, then yes, it’s a consensus on here.
I wouldn’t say likely. Both Crater and CDA will have to earn it, losing Gorze is a huge hit and they aren’t super deep. CDA wasn’t stellar this spring, they’ll be good, but saying they are a likely NXN team is a big improvement from last year and the spring they had. The NW still has deep programs like Jesuit and Rocky in the mix, along with a handful of others that will make NXR NW super interesting. I bet it’ll be 6-8 teams deep with Top 30 caliber teams.
now that Crater lost Gorze, this team went from 6-deep to 5-deep
Freshman out of Idaho runs 4:19/9:19/15:49. His single year progression is massive which leads me to think he is new to running. Could be a top talent here in a few yearshttps://id.milesplit.com/athletes/10129189-luke-athay...
So according to post 19 in this thread, Athay is running again and plans to race fall XC. Don’t expect him to be fully fit until late in the season though.
I wouldn’t say likely. Both Crater and CDA will have to earn it, losing Gorze is a huge hit and they aren’t super deep. CDA wasn’t stellar this spring, they’ll be good, but saying they are a likely NXN team is a big improvement from last year and the spring they had. The NW still has deep programs like Jesuit and Rocky in the mix, along with a handful of others that will make NXR NW super interesting. I bet it’ll be 6-8 teams deep with Top 30 caliber teams.
now that Crater lost Gorze, this team went from 6-deep to 5-deep
If anything, Crater is massively better at #3 (8:51 3k vs. 9:56 3200), #4 (3:56 1500 vs. 4:37/10:10) and #5 (4:04 and 8th at the Oregon 5A State Meet vs 4:08/10:10). Rocky might have a lot more depth from 6-20, but on paper and with everyone healthy, it's not even close to being a contest between Crater and Rocky. Depth can also be defined as having more than 2 really strong runners and Crater has 5 top end runners and a strong 6 and 7. Crater is bringing back the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 10th returners from the Oregon 5A State meet. Rocky is bringing back the 1st, 6th, 25th and 29th returners from the Idaho State meet.
The poster Girls 5A State Meet is pushing some Rocky PR like what they are claiming isn't easily proven false.