Well yes, it was another poster who made the claim that Katir might have run 3:32/33 in 2020 if he had more racing opportunities. That post was upvoted 22 votes and downvoted zero times. Did you abstain? Do you disagree with him? You DID deny that 3:36 was his true potential in 2020. So you think his potential was 3:35? 3:34?
Normal progression is not going to attach to everyone, given the numbers in track and field. That's what the doping dummies fail to grasp. There are going to be outliers in every direction.
The cynics desperately try to shove every case into the same box and same conclusion. It's like some of the true crime shows when certain detectives are hopelessly overmatched and never should have attained that position in the first place.
I think I don't have enough information to want to guess. My claim was that deciding 3:36, or 3:34, or 3:32, or whatever needs to consider many factors in a complete context for that runner and his performances, and no one seems to be doing that seriously.
Normally for athletes, the coach and the athlete will have planned out the seasons's goals and training, and timing when to peak. Was 2020, and 2021 the same training and goals? 2020 was a strange year globally. How was his training during Covid? Was 3:36.59 (3 weeks before the Spanish Championship) before the planned peak? What was the weather, temperature, wind, pacing, drafting for each race? 2021 was in Monaco in July, while 2020 was in Spain in August/September. What shoes did he wear? We can see from his WA profile that he was producing superior performances (WA "score") in January 2021, for 3000m (indoors) and in June 5000m, suggesting a focus on longer endurance.
There seems to be a tendency to falsely create a dichotomy, with one under-analyzed "clean" scenario, which if enough holes are poked in it, conveniently leaves the default (unanalyzed) "doping" alternative explanation as the only possibility left. No one likes to think about this, but should we take for granted that doping can bring 8 seconds in the 1500m for a 3:36 runner? Keep in mind how few people broke 3:30 since Coe and Cram did in the mid-80s. If "doping" could bring 8 seconds, we should have seen a lot more than a couple dozen runners joining the sub-3:30 club (in 2018, I counted only 26), and a lot more than two non-Africans Nick Willis and Fernando Cacho, before the recent faster times in the era of super-shoes.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
I am of this thought as well. Katir is my favorite runner but I also believe that every pro runner dopes a little bit; but If Katir says he is clean then I believe him. He trains very hard and is very technical in his methods; i'm pretty sure he trains at a Spanish facility at high altitude. Katir is good at competing in very competitive fields as well so his time drop seems like a natural occurrence as 2021 saw him competing in those international caliber fields like at Florence and Gateshead.