So to get this record we'd have to believe 1) he's in 7:22.x shape 2) in early June and 3) wants to focus that effort on a non-Diamond league, non-championship, non-standard distance record. That's why I say zero chance
So to get this record we'd have to believe 1) he's in 7:22.x shape 2) in early June and 3) wants to focus that effort on a non-Diamond league, non-championship, non-standard distance record. That's why I say zero chance
Agree. No chance. El G, Geb, KB...a bunch of suitors (that I am a fan of) have tried to go under 8.
So to get this record we'd have to believe 1) he's in 7:22.x shape 2) in early June and 3) wants to focus that effort on a non-Diamond league, non-championship, non-standard distance record. That's why I say zero chance
Agree. No chance. El G, Geb, KB...a bunch of suitors (that I am a fan of) have tried to go under 8.
El G never tried to break 8:00 but was definitely capable. I don’t know if Ingebrigtsen will succeed in Paris, but the record appears to be within his reach. The fact that guys like Geb and Bekele failed isn’t really relevant because they were 5k/10k specialists. Someone like Ingebrigtsen is better suited to the distance with his superior 1500m speed and still excellent 5000m strength. He has 3:28 and 12:48 (probably low 12:40s now) which makes him a lot more like Komen than either of the Ethiopians.
So to get this record we'd have to believe 1) he's in 7:22.x shape 2) in early June and 3) wants to focus that effort on a non-Diamond league, non-championship, non-standard distance record. That's why I say zero chance
Only a clown can give a laughable statement like zero chance - for sure he has a chance.
El G never tried to break 8:00 but was definitely capable. I don’t know if Ingebrigtsen will succeed in Paris, but the record appears to be within his reach. The fact that guys like Geb and Bekele failed isn’t really relevant because they were 5k/10k specialists. Someone like Ingebrigtsen is better suited to the distance with his superior 1500m speed and still excellent 5000m strength. He has 3:28 and 12:48 (probably low 12:40s now) which makes him a lot more like Komen than either of the Ethiopians.
Fun fact: Geb’s indoor 1500 pr is only a second off of Ingebritzens.
Le meilleur demi-fondeur de la planète sera au stade Charléty le vendredi 9 juin, pour tenter de battre la meilleure performance de l’histoire sur 2 miles, propriété actuelle de Daniel Komen. Le Norvégien, champion olympique...
So to get this record we'd have to believe 1) he's in 7:22.x shape 2) in early June and 3) wants to focus that effort on a non-Diamond league, non-championship, non-standard distance record. That's why I say zero chance
I recall the 7:20.67 WR = 7:55.96 two mile on one apparently authoritative conversion chart. On that basis, the 2 mi WR of 7:58.61 is worth a bit more than 7:23. Vs. your # of 7:22.91. Effectively 7:23.
I would say very small chance for success. But not zero. Super shoes and he is still improving and getting stronger. Assuming he is really going for it, I would think he has an outside shot
So to get this record we'd have to believe 1) he's in 7:22.x shape 2) in early June and 3) wants to focus that effort on a non-Diamond league, non-championship, non-standard distance record. That's why I say zero chance
Bad post.
Where are you getting 1.0806 from? That is a common conversation factor for 1500-mile. Pace is expected to degrade MUCH more between the 1500 and the mile, than between the 3000 and the 2-mile.
A more realistic conversion for 3000 and 2-mile is 1.075:
7:58.61 / 1.075 = 7:25.22.
I strongly believe that Jakob Ingebrigtsen has 7:25 3000m ability right now.
So to get this record we'd have to believe 1) he's in 7:22.x shape 2) in early June and 3) wants to focus that effort on a non-Diamond league, non-championship, non-standard distance record. That's why I say zero chance
You are just negative towards Jakob in general!
If Jakob has accepted to go for the WR in a special race outside the official DL program in Paris it is because he thinks he have a fair chance to succeed.
I think he knows much better than you how fit he is at the moment.
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There has been much focus on which 3000m time he should be able to run to get the WR in this sligthly longer distance.
I will here make another approach:
Around 3 years ago in the first Covid year Jakob ran a 2000m in 4:50 in the Impossible Games.
He comfortably ran the first 4 laps in 59 and the last lap in 54 ending up running in average 58 sec per lap. It was a team effort and the older brothers had forbidden him to run away before the last lap.
If the older brothers had paced him instead I think he at least could have run 57.5 per lap = 4:47.5. (Gjert stated afterwards that he could have come to E-G´s 2000m WR).
I will postulate that he today - as a stronger and faster runner - if the conditions are right can run close to 59 per lap in the 2 mile which is just over 3 laps longer than the 2000m.
And that he therefore - still under the right conditions (pacemaking, weather) - can break the WR with a significant margin.
If Jakob has accepted to go for the WR in a special race outside the official DL program in Paris it is because he thinks he have a fair chance to succeed.
I think he knows much better than you how fit he is at the moment.
-----------------------------
There has been much focus on which 3000m time he should be able to run to get the WR in this sligthly longer distance.
I will here make another approach:
Around 3 years ago in the first Covid year Jakob ran a 2000m in 4:50 in the Impossible Games.
He comfortably ran the first 4 laps in 59 and the last lap in 54 ending up running in average 58 sec per lap. It was a team effort and the older brothers had forbidden him to run away before the last lap.
If the older brothers had paced him instead I think he at least could have run 57.5 per lap = 4:47.5. (Gjert stated afterwards that he could have come to E-G´s 2000m WR).
I will postulate that he today - as a stronger and faster runner - if the conditions are right can run close to 59 per lap in the 2 mile which is just over 3 laps longer than the 2000m.
And that he therefore - still under the right conditions (pacemaking, weather) - can break the WR with a significant margin.
I agree with you. Jakob has the major advantage of hailing from a country with little competition to make teams (5k bye also good). There's no big issue with him being in really good shape in early and mid-June like that poster is saying. How good shape will Americans, Brits and Kenyans be in to make their national teams in their national windows? So, Oslo and this race are his mini-peak before putting his head down for Worlds with a tune-up DL here and there.
I think many of you are in for some big surprises the next couple of years. When Jakob was asked in a interview which distance he thought, at the end of his career, he would have the best result in (read: the best personal record), his answer was "the half marathon". Also many of the people around him thinks he will get better the longer the race gets.
The only reason for him running 2 miles a week before Bislett Games is that he thinks he can beat the record. Not easy, of course, but if there's one runner capable of doing two 4 minute miles in a row, I think it's Jakob right now.
This is also a test to see if the 3.000 meter record is within reach, I think. If it wasn't for this race in Paris, I definitely think he would have participated in the Firenze 5.000. Jakob loves fields and competitions like that.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Combining all of this, I am forced to believe that a truly insane time is possible. I'm talking like 7:54, which is not quite as out-there as it sounds (it's 7:21 or 7:22 pace for 3k).
On the 9th of June, Jakob will try to beat Komen 7:58 according to an article on FFA (french track and field federation) website, with the help of wavelight for the first time in Paris.
Discuss.
If everything goes right, Jakob easily gets it. I predict he follows the light for most of the race, and then kicks in the last 500m for a 7:56/57. Then he celebrates and tell everyone how easy it felt.
As crazy as it seems, I think this record is overrated. Even the 3000m record isn’t as strong as a lot of people here think. Jakob probably gets it in the next few years. Will be harder and closer than the 2 miles record though.
I told you it would be easy guys !! Followed the light then 55 last 400 for 7:54 even crazier than I thought.
