The 5000 is just a different type of challenge. KT will have some fatique doubling back from 1500 against fresh 5000 runners including Valby/Tyynisma/Bush. Against this field KT is the kicker and in a bind can probably win from 400 out. It's doable, as she has teammates to get her thru 3000/4000even and 15:20-30 probably enough to win in Austin, but I don't see it as sure or easy.
I agree and think it’s great that Tuohy is taking on this challenge with the 1500/5k double. Would be so easy to play it safe and just try to repeat in the 5k, which as long as she remains healthy and something crazy doesn’t happen in the race like a fall, would be extremely likely and not that difficult to accomplish. Instead she is putting it all on the line, risking failure. That takes some courage, especially as high of a profile she has in the NCAA right now.
Ultimately, I think the reason for throwing in the 1500 was to work on raw fatigued speed, and although that may not reflect in her early rounds, I think she has a great chance to pull off the victory in both.
I think come USATF we’ll see the payoff of all of this.
Tuohy vs Whitaker for example... And let's just look at 400, 800, 1600
57, 202, 422. Vs. 55, 200, 428...
But say they're running against each other in a tactical 1600 at about 4:30 pace... Tuohy Might be able to close the last lap in a 63 while Whitaker might only be able to run a 64 even though she's faster...
Anyway I think she should run real tactical tomorrow draft as much as she can and see how her kick is and if it works use that strategy in the final
Quite frankly I’m not sure why she’s putting it all on the line. She knows fatigue has been an issue. She’s either using the opportunity to test her strength or going after the Bowerman in a way that it cannot be denied if she pulls it off. I would give it 50:50 optimistically. She can control her effort in the 15 but her body’s limitations will dictate the outcome of a 5 on short rest. Hope hubris hasn’t set in. This is different from getting a rest with overnight sleep in between.
Your a tad optimistic here w/ Tuohy's speed. 400 v Whitaker is more like 59 v 52. You are absolutely right though that 52 means nothing, if you are too tired at the end of a race to use it. Still, all the rare Touhy losses are to fast kickers, who managed to hang around til the last 200, Sammy Watson, Krissy Gear, Whitni Morgan, Gabby Wilkinson, Angel Piccarillo and I can't think of even 1 race Touhy has won w/ a final 100-200m kick. (Valby xc was more a 1k close than a sprint finish)
I'd also love to see Touhy practice tactical racing and come flying down the final straight like Joe Waskom, but I don't think the NCAA meet is where they will test this out.
We saw what she could do for cross country. We saw what she could do during indoor, including the championships at altitude having little effect on her. Granted, they weren't record paces, but compared to the other competitors, she looked fresh when they were over. When she broke the outdoor record at 5000 she was having finals and she said she had a pretty bad week. When she won the 10,000, you could see she wasn't going for the record, but still cruised in with a very respectable time. I don't think anyone but her coach and teammates know what level she's at now. That's what we're about to see.
She's taking on a big challenge, for sure, but I give her well above a 50:50 chance. I personally think she'll do it. She won doubles and triples in high school. The competition is tougher in college, but she's also stronger and faster.
She might try it in the quartfinals but why would she not use her best advantage in the final, which is her strength? If it is a slow pace with 1 lap to go, there are quite a few runners with more speed. It's very risky.
Re whittaker its more like:
57/58(per Tuohy) 204 423 vs 52 159 432
Tuohys fastest closes right now are ~63.5, Whittaker is 62.09 and the latter ran it to win Mt Sac in 4:12.
Plourde ran 4:09.48/61.48 From the front at Pac 12. She came in second to Nikki Hiltz in the rain at Drake Relays in 4:10/61.46 beating a pro field. She also ran 15:21 5k in her first ever and goes to an altitude school. Imho she is Tuohy's biggest competition as she has the best closing 400m off a faster pace, the next fastest 3k/5k.
Tuohy cemented her win against Skyring in the final 150 but I think your point is pretty accurate. If she had had just a little more speed in the final 50 meters at 2022 indoor NCAAs, she might have won the 3k or 5k. But Wayment for example was able to accellerate away over the last stretch.
Personally I thinkk it's great she is doing the 1500m and I hope they are working on her speed.