As typical for fans they tend to oscillate wildly. The very strong indoor races had them hoping for close to 4 min this spring, but in fact 4:08 with an overambitious start is very good. OTOH winning a prelim with a ~64 (4:00 pace) last lap when the first 1000m were not even at Tuohy's 3k pace is not saying much either.
You can't seriously be criticizing a prelim win, when goal is to advance as slow as possible. You will see the same on Saturday with 5k following that heat. She'll have the 4:06 when she needs it.
I was not critizing Tuohy. Rather the fans who first panicked after a 4:08 in NC but now get excited that a 4:06 runner looks quite relaxed when winning a 1500 prelim in a pace slower than her 3k pace... This is just to be expected (do you expect her to look strained for 4:19?) and nothing about her being in extraordinary shape can be glimpsed from it.
I don’t think Appleton, Seeland, is a front runner. Looks like all are sit and kickers. Maybe Kimberly May?
Let's see who is in this heat:
Stars: Batres, Tuohy, Ramsden, Seeland, Appleton
At their limit: Lucki, Thomas, Juul
Potential surprises: Wilkinson, Osika, May, Nicholson
If no one else leads, Tuohy happy to do it. She'll get them to 1100 in 3:10 and close in 64 for 4:14. I'm not sure Tuohy cares about winning heat, but she'll make sure to be top 5. Stars 1-5, 6 Nicholson, 7 Wilkinson but time Q's probably from other heat.
Slight chance kt runs faster, if they want another test of a tired 5k, but I think they know enough already.
off the top of my head I can't name who in Heat 1 might set a fast pace. Heat 2 has the 2 (imho) potential front runners in Tuohy and Appelton.
I would say Maatoug but after indoor nationals I don't think she will try to take it out. She might start moving at 800m though. Same with Ayyildiz or Flockhart.
Heat 2, Tuohy has to be wary of Wilkinson, Appleton and Batres kick.
What perceptions though? Often the 'also rans' who pr have shot their shot and disappear in the next round. Rarely and it's one of the most beautiful things in track, someone prs and prs and prs for an upset championship. Barnett (and Appleton) is a known commodity and runs most 'Touhy like' - go from the gun, close hard, but not a 100m sprinter. She could well run 4:06 in the final. The trick is trying to figure out what to think about each of the 8 prs.
In the final, I believe Touhy will hit 1100 in 3:00 and close in 64. Can that hold off Barnett and Appleton? Will Whitaker and Howell close in 59 to pass them all? That's why this is such a great matchup.
that is a fast pace and i think at most there is one runner in the field that could handle that. Barnett was about 3:05 yesterday.
Gator bait: Do you mean 1200 in 3:00? (If so, I agree).
FastTuohy: The West threw down some impressive overall times and some seriously fast closing laps, do you think Barnett is the ONLY one that can handle a fast pace and still close?
I mentioned yesterday that I think Tuohy needs to be a solid 2 to 4 seconds ahead the field to win NCAA Nationals. What do you think guys think?
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
Updated to “ahead” of the field
off the top of my head I can't name who in Heat 1 might set a fast pace. Heat 2 has the 2 (imho) potential front runners in Tuohy and Appelton.
That's the same thing that jumped out at me when I looked at the names. Heat 1 looks like a bunched tactical race. Flockhart looked so good yesterday I would expect her to try to break it apart during the middle of the final lap, with the kickers joining.
Maatoug keeps avoiding Tuohy in every draw. Same thing in the 5000. I guess it's good in terms of advancing but I'd like to see how Maatoug would fare in a more honest pace instead of all of these boxed and scramble.
that is a fast pace and i think at most there is one runner in the field that could handle that. Barnett was about 3:05 yesterday.
Gator bait: Do you mean 1200 in 3:00? (If so, I agree).
FastTuohy: The West threw down some impressive overall times and some seriously fast closing laps, do you think Barnett is the ONLY one that can handle a fast pace and still close?
I mentioned yesterday that I think Tuohy needs to be a solid 2 to 4 seconds ahead the field to win NCAA Nationals. What do you think guys think?
1100. 3:00 for 1200 is 4:00 is mile. I think tuohy needs to be 3:03 is at 1100. They might be with her but I don't see 61 off that pace.
Gator bait: Do you mean 1200 in 3:00? (If so, I agree).
FastTuohy: The West threw down some impressive overall times and some seriously fast closing laps, do you think Barnett is the ONLY one that can handle a fast pace and still close?
I mentioned yesterday that I think Tuohy needs to be a solid 2 to 4 seconds ahead the field to win NCAA Nationals. What do you think guys think?
1100. 3:00 for 1200 is 4:00 is mile. I think tuohy needs to be 3:03 is at 1100. They might be with her but I don't see 61 off that pace.
Oh that’s FUNNY! Good point, yes, for some reason I had it all mixed up. Thanks!
Gator bait: Do you mean 1200 in 3:00? (If so, I agree).
FastTuohy: The West threw down some impressive overall times and some seriously fast closing laps, do you think Barnett is the ONLY one that can handle a fast pace and still close?
I mentioned yesterday that I think Tuohy needs to be a solid 2 to 4 seconds ahead the field to win NCAA Nationals. What do you think guys think?
1100. 3:00 for 1200 is 4:00 is mile. I think tuohy needs to be 3:03 is at 1100. They might be with her but I don't see 61 off that pace.
Wow, that’d be daring, I just don’t see her chancing it having them right with her with one lap to go. Not with the closing speed some of those women have if they’re feeling strong that day.
Now, with that being said, if Tuohy showed she can close in 60 flat, (or under), then having a slew of women with her with one lap to go wouldn’t bother me.
As it is, she’s shown she’s a strength runner, at best I’ve seen her close her final 200m in 31 seconds. I would think it best not to chance it having others around her.
If they can do 3:03 and close in 61 they just might be faster than tuohy. That would be a championship record and #2 all time.
With some of those PB’s being thrown down last night, I wouldn’t be surprised if one (or even two) of the women are capable of a 4:04-4:06 range now by Nationals.
Tuohy’s put herself in an interesting spot. If she wanted to spice things up and make it exciting, she’s certainly done that.
This particular double still surprises me. Exciting though!
1100. 3:00 for 1200 is 4:00 is mile. I think tuohy needs to be 3:03 is at 1100. They might be with her but I don't see 61 off that pace.
Wow, that’d be daring, I just don’t see her chancing it having them right with her with one lap to go. Not with the closing speed some of those women have if they’re feeling strong that day.
Now, with that being said, if Tuohy showed she can close in 60 flat, (or under), then having a slew of women with her with one lap to go wouldn’t bother me.
As it is, she’s shown she’s a strength runner, at best I’ve seen her close her final 200m in 31 seconds. I would think it best not to chance it having others around her.
Last year she when she ran 4:06, she was 3:03 at the bell and Skyring was right there with her. I think it is likely that at 3:03, several runners will be there too. Anyone with a 4:10 or better PR has a shot to hang on to that pace. Thornton-Bott was 3:03 at sound running, Schein-Becker ran 3:02 at Raleigh Relays.
All good, 1100 is not a split I usually think in, but it matches the way the splits are set up, and you can see it clearly on tv. Obviously it then gives easily the closing 400. My thinking is kt needs to be at 3:00 in the final, planning to close in 64. This next heat still historically is slow and I assume she'll hit 1100 in 3:10, may not lock up a win, but should get top 5.
Barnett's been going out fast and fading all year. I don't think she can kick off a hard pace, but like Touhy if she can build a lead, she may take kick out of kickers and be able to hang on for podium.
With some of those PB’s being thrown down last night, I wouldn’t be surprised if one (or even two) of the women are capable of a 4:04-4:06 range now by Nationals.
Tuohy’s put herself in an interesting spot. If she wanted to spice things up and make it exciting, she’s certainly done that.
This particular double still surprises me. Exciting though!
That is pretty much what happened when Sinclair Johnson won in 2019.
Her PR before the final was 4:09 and she ran ~4:05.9 #2 all time, beating Jessica Hull who ran a 4:06.27 PR. Hull's season best was 4:09, but had run 4:08 the year prior.
It is an exciting challenge for Tuohy ... certainly not a done deal.
With some of those PB’s being thrown down last night, I wouldn’t be surprised if one (or even two) of the women are capable of a 4:04-4:06 range now by Nationals.
Tuohy’s put herself in an interesting spot. If she wanted to spice things up and make it exciting, she’s certainly done that.
This particular double still surprises me. Exciting though!
That is pretty much what happened when Sinclair Johnson won in 2019.
Her PR before the final was 4:09 and she ran ~4:05.9 #2 all time, beating Jessica Hull who ran a 4:06.27 PR. Hull's season best was 4:09, but had run 4:08 the year prior.
It is an exciting challenge for Tuohy ... certainly not a done deal.
Exactly. (On all counts).
And you know that anyone with a remote chance is absolutely gunning for her.
I still have absolutely no worries whatsoever about the 5000m however.