Freshman year I had a 22 minute 5k pr, starting the season around 26 minutes.
Sophomore year XC, I worked down to a low 19 minute 5k pr.
Sophomore track season I was able to get 5:20 mile and 11:15 3200, felt like I could definitely do way better. (~25 miles per week )
This summer before junior year, planning on getting up to some 60 mile weeks.
I want junior year to be getting sub 17 (hopefully at the time trial), maybe even sub 16.
By senior year I want to be in the definitely 15-minute range.
Any tips or advice? Is this reasonable? Different training plan I should do? What would my expected current 5k time be right now based on my track times? All help is appreciated.
Trying to basically run your 1600 PR three times in a row is 4-6 months later is probably not going to happen. That said, slowly increasing your mileage, while continuing to do threshold work and perhaps and odd hill workout will probably do wonders over the summer. I wouldn’t really put a time goal on yourself. I would just focus on getting in killer shape and let the times come to you.
Your goals are not reasonable. They may be attainable, but that's something else.
Your goals are formulated like this: you will take a huge step up in mileage to and then hit particular times on a specific schedule.
The problem is that you're thinking too far ahead, and planning on race times that may or may not ever happen.
So instead of saying "60 mpw," start with, say, 30-35 mpw to start off your summer. See how that goes. If you're still feeling good after a few weeks, add some more. Keep building mileage and don't get injured. See where it takes you. Think about some other process goals, like consistency and workout progression (but without scheduling any intense workouts until August at least).
Your first race goal should be to turn your track fitness into an equivalent cross country time. Break 18 first (even in a road race this summer if you want), then go after 17.
Think about some racing goals in terms of competition. Who do you want to hang with? Who do you want to beat? What do you want to do in the last 800-400m of your races? What kind of a competitor do you want to be?
Sub-17 is possible. After that, things like genetics play a role in terms of how possible sub-16 is or how long it might take to get there. Start with increasing the easy miles over the summer & get ready for sub-19 & then sub-18. Don't rush the process & don't feel like you need to be cranking out fast workouts over the summer. Get the mileage into the 40-50+ range. Do a weekly tempo/threshold session. Do some strides. Build up your long run. As your coach adds in the faster stuff in the fall, know you'll have better strength to hold whatever paces you're handling in workouts. Pace your races better than the people around you.
I think going from 22 minute 5 km as a freshmen to under 15 as a senior is insane, not impossible just insane. You would have to put in a lot of work and even at the point it would be quite hard. Try not to take such a big jump into more mileage and maybe work on yourself overall, while slowly increasing your mileage. Like plyometrics, strength training, stretching, etc. This will help you avoid getting injured. My times are very similar to this as a freshman girl and I am working with lots of great coaches and an Olympian to get better and this what they recommend. Update: The truth is I never actually raced a 5 km, but my 4 km time is 15:15 half a year ago which everyone says would be around 19 minutes and I have raced a 3000m on a track and I got 10:45. Editing again and my 1500m is 4:45 and my 800m is 2:22 just for reference.
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.