According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021), the global supply of crude oil, other liquid hydrocarbons, and biofuels is expected to be adequate to meet the world's demand for liquid fuels through 2050.
Of course, there will still be oil for another 25 to 50 years after that, but it will not be enough to meet demand, so prices will go up drastically at that point (or earlier).
On average, an aircraft is operable for about 30 years before it has to be retired. A Boeing 747 can endure about 35,000 pressurization cycles and flights—roughly 135,000 to 165,000 flight hours—before metal fatigue sets in. 747s are retired after approximately 27 years of service
The long term math is probably starting to not make sense...
In theory, a 747 can last 27 years. However, if I order a plane now, it will take a couple of years for me to receive it and I then have to assume a max of only 25 years for economic life for my plane.
Every year, the math gets worse from now on (as we are getting closer to 2050)...
It has to start affecting sales. No?
Which is why I find the outcry of stop SUV sales so funny. It's a self correcting problem. Oil is a finite resource. It will correct itself quite quickly.
Spend your time doing something more productive with your time then crying about SUVs. Just wait it out. Even if we stop all SUV sales tomorrow morning, oil will simply be available for an extra month (maybe).